chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 22, 2020 17:47:14 GMT
Does anyone think that eventually us investors will have to bear our own defaults Never - RS is explicitly a risk-mutualised platform. I would be incredibly shocked if they tried anything else and they would be in serious trouble legally.
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Aug 22, 2020 17:49:19 GMT
Does anyone think that eventually us investors will have to bear our own defaults or will Ratesetter keep doing capital haircuts to keep resuscitating the provision fund. for "the greater good" of everybody. If we do have to suffer our own defaults it will not be fair as the platform wasn't designed to diversify the risk as it relied on the provision fund kicking in. I did invest mainly in £100 chunks as I wasn't comfortable with large amounts going to one borrower but I imagine others just left it up to RS. RS are maintaining the position that they expect the PF to cope, despite their stats telling a different story, whilst of course having T&Cs which make it clear that it is not guaranteed. If they don't soon divert 100% of interest into the PF, with a promise to pay deferred interest out of any surplus, it will become impossible to keep up this pretence and they will have to make a decision on how the pain is shared. Easiest for them although as you say unfair would be for each portfolio to be treated separately.
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Aug 22, 2020 17:50:45 GMT
Does anyone think that eventually us investors will have to bear our own defaults Never - RS is explicitly a risk-mutualised platform. I would be incredibly shocked if they tried anything else and they would be in serious trouble legally. What about all those who have already been paid in full? And the ones who will be before the crunch?
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 22, 2020 17:52:01 GMT
Never - RS is explicitly a risk-mutualised platform. I would be incredibly shocked if they tried anything else and they would be in serious trouble legally. What about all those who have already been paid in full? And the ones who will be before the crunch? I don't understand? Until RS decides that the PF won't be able to cope, there won't be any such measures taken...
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Aug 22, 2020 21:25:19 GMT
What about all those who have already been paid in full? And the ones who will be before the crunch? I don't understand? Until RS decides that the PF won't be able to cope, there won't be any such measures taken... Quite. So those that reach the front of the queue will repaid in full, even if they hold loans which are not going to repay because those loan parts are being sold to the holders of loans which have repaid (and who have not changed their required rate). We on this forum (a small minority remember) will at least get our share of loans that do repay because we have set a high required rate, but if the PF cannot cover defaults there will be no contribution from those who have already been fully repaid. This is not what I call mutualisation.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 22, 2020 21:34:28 GMT
I don't understand? Until RS decides that the PF won't be able to cope, there won't be any such measures taken... Quite. So those that reach the front of the queue will repaid in full, even if they hold loans which are not going to repay because those loan parts are being sold to the holders of loans which have repaid (and who have not changed their required rate). We on this forum (a small minority remember) will at least get our share of loans that do repay because we have set a high required rate, but if the PF cannot cover defaults there will be no contribution from those who have already been fully repaid. This is not what I call mutualisation. That is always how it has been with all of these 'black box'/risk mutualisation-style P2P platforms, I'm afraid. If you think things are going south, it's fastest finger first to try to withdraw. If the worst happens, the moment the 'event' (resolution event/provision fund failure etc. etc.) is declared will always be somewhat arbitrary and those still invested will feel hard done by, especially compared to those who just made it out in the nick of time. But what else could have happened? There isn't really another option. It has to be declared at some point, always with a stark cut-off between those who got out and those left behind. It will never please everyone. What would you propose instead? RS say the PF can currently cover expected defaults. You might be sceptical about this, but that's what their analysis says and they've always been pretty transparent about all this - none of it is new.
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Post by diversifier on Aug 22, 2020 23:20:24 GMT
Yes, I did mean that. I think it is definitely worth asking whether Metro intend to trigger the (provision fund based) wind-down plan after acquisition, due to the acquisition itself rather than the state of the PF at the time. Since the plan was originally required by the FCA, and approved it, it is something that Metro *must* have an answer for. Whatever answer they give should be binding towards the FCA. I don’t think Metro can suddenly start charging a 2% administration fee, due to any change in company *policy* alone. If you see my subsequent post, having had a look, I was wrong and it's not actually a provision fund-based wind-down. It's much broader than that.he I'm not sure I'd think of it being Metro Bank charging the 2%. I don't know what legal structure they'll use for the acquisition, but it'll essentially be the same RateSetter business (in wind-down) that is charging it, and - as per my previous post - Clause 20.1 of the T&C we're all signed up to gives them very broad discretion in this regard. I don't know what they'll do or what the FCA might think (if theyy think anything at all), but I certainly don't think we can say for sure that they can't charge the fee. I agree, we can’t say they can’t charge the fee, based on what is out there at the moment. I’m arguing that it’s really in our interest to force the issue, because doing so might prevent that happening, Its a legal/factual question that Metro can’t dodge. They have to answer it, yes or no, in the same way that RS were told by the FCA that it was a condition of doing business to have the plan in the first place. Before acquisition it would be horrifically painful for them to say that the charge would apply, because that would immediately cause the FCA to come down on the acquisition like a ton of bricks. From FCA perspective, it would change the acquisition approval to “Given that Metro acquisition is going to trigger wind-down, the only way they can be allowed to proceed with it, is if the FCA have separately analysed all possible alternatives, and there is no other way in which wind-down can be avoided”. By forcing the issue, Metro really have to say “no, it won’t trigger”. The initial statement may be just a one-liner publically, but Metro will have to back it up with detailed arguments in private to the FCA, showing how they’ve analysed it, and why that’s the case. It’s then really hard for Metro to change that position post-acquisition. Because it’s no longer a commitment to us, it’s a commitment to the FCA.
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Aug 23, 2020 7:53:02 GMT
Quite. So those that reach the front of the queue will repaid in full, even if they hold loans which are not going to repay because those loan parts are being sold to the holders of loans which have repaid (and who have not changed their required rate). We on this forum (a small minority remember) will at least get our share of loans that do repay because we have set a high required rate, but if the PF cannot cover defaults there will be no contribution from those who have already been fully repaid. This is not what I call mutualisation. That is always how it has been with all of these 'black box'/risk mutualisation-style P2P platforms, I'm afraid. If you think things are going south, it's fastest finger first to try to withdraw. If the worst happens, the moment the 'event' (resolution event/provision fund failure etc. etc.) is declared will always be somewhat arbitrary and those still invested will feel hard done by, especially compared to those who just made it out in the nick of time. But what else could have happened? There isn't really another option. It has to be declared at some point, always with a stark cut-off between those who got out and those left behind. It will never please everyone. What would you propose instead? RS say the PF can currently cover expected defaults. You might be sceptical about this, but that's what their analysis says and they've always been pretty transparent about all this - none of it is new. What would I propose instead? That RS immediately divert all interest into the PF with a promise to pay deferred interest, pro rata, if there is any surplus. PF Analysis: Their's is based on a heroic assumption about future defaults - that things are going to get a lot better! This flies in the face of all the evidence about the impact on the virus. From their stats page calculate the proportion of money returned to lenders which came from the PF. It was 6.35% a few days ago. Now apply that to the total loans outstanding. This shows that the PF will not cope. Now factor in rising unemployment and the fact that, by definition, only loans that were always going to repay have repaid, leaving an increasing proportion of loans that were never destined to be repaid. These factors have to be estimated but I cannot image any plausible estimate that would make the PF sufficient.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2020 8:16:29 GMT
Speak for yourself.
I'd rather have x% interest now and suffer a x% capital loss later, rather than leave that x% in the fund and pray it doesn't get siphoned off into some other pot somehow.
For example in an administration scenario - we've all seen how admin fees have a nasty habit of siphoning off capital that should belong to investors.
I'd rather have as much as possible out now thanks. A 'bird in the hand' and all that.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Aug 23, 2020 8:24:52 GMT
Speak for yourself. I'd rather have x% interest now and suffer a x% capital loss later, rather than leave that x% in the fund and pray it doesn't get siphoned off into some other pot somehow. For example in an administration scenario - we've all seen how admin fees have a nasty habit of siphoning off capital that should belong to investors. I'd rather have as much as possible out now thanks. A 'bird in the hand' and all that. And telling lenders they are getting zero interest would cause an almighty rush for the doors and probably trigger a disorderly wind down now, rather than a (hopefully) orderly wind down in a few months time.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2020 8:31:55 GMT
And telling lenders they are getting zero interest would cause an almighty rush for the doors and probably trigger a disorderly wind down now, rather than a (hopefully) orderly wind down in a few months time. Indeed. Aside from the panic, the simple fact is that x% interest paid and withdrawn now, is x% that is no longer at risk. I can park it in an FSCS protected account and forget about it. x% left in the fund to be paid at a 'future date' is x% non-FSCS protected and subject to all kinds of unknowable risks. From a risk perspective, it is a terrible idea. Thanks, but no thanks.
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Aug 23, 2020 10:23:34 GMT
Obviously it suits the narrow financial interests of those at the front of the queue to get capital plus interest, at the expense of those behind losing capital, rather than all getting capital but reduced interest. If I was at the front this is what I would prefer (actually I am not in the queue at all myself, I am running down the account of an in-law with dementia). However I was not suggesting that it would appeal to them, I was replying to the question "What would I propose instead?" as an idea which RS or the FCA might think is fairer.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 23, 2020 10:23:59 GMT
What would I propose instead? That RS immediately divert all interest into the PF with a promise to pay deferred interest, pro rata, if there is any surplus. But this is my exact point - it comes down to an arbitrary (and subjective) date selection that will please some and not others. You want that date to come right now. This works for you because the person whose investment you're looking after is right at the back of the RYI queue - so you're resigned to being in it until the bitter end. You don't care about the damage zero interest would cause to RYI processing (as re-investment would surely have to end), because you're not going to get there anyway. All you care about is bolstering the PF using the interest of people like me who are quite close to the front of the RYI queue (and might just get out), to avoid a haircut. I, on the other hand, don't want the date to come now. I'm quite close to the front of the RYI queue and, even if things remain slow, there's a chance I could get out. If we went to zero interest, that would likely be RYI processing pretty much over and I'd be stuck in. I also share the concerns articulated in the posts above this about the other problems such a measure would cause. We all have different interests in this. Combined with this, there isn't a single, objective measure of the exact date on which this sort of PF event should be called. It was always going to be a pretty arbitrary decision by RS themselves, and we were at the mercy of this decision - that's what we all signed up to. Edit: crossed posts, actually with some quite similar thinking!
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Aug 23, 2020 10:30:14 GMT
And telling lenders they are getting zero interest would cause an almighty rush for the doors and probably trigger a disorderly wind down now, rather than a (hopefully) orderly wind down in a few months time. Presumably, in a zero interest situation RS would also basically have to disable re-investment (I don't think the FCA would be especially pleased otherwise...!) - so even those paying no attention wouldn't have their funds re-invested anymore. This would mean zero new lending = even more chance of that disorderly wind-down.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2020 10:38:46 GMT
Obviously it suits the narrow financial interests of those at the front of the queue to get capital plus interest, at the expense of those behind losing capital, rather than all getting capital but reduced interest. If I was at the front this is what I would prefer (actually I am not in the queue at all myself, I am running down the account of an in-law with dementia). However I was not suggesting that it would appeal to them, I was replying to the question "What would I propose instead?" as an idea which RS or the FCA might think is fairer. And your proposal would torpedo queue processing completely. But you clearly don't care, because this would obviously suit your narrow financial interests. What a surprise, your personal idea of fairness suits you and not others. As for deferring the interest component, these are amortising loans - everyone receives interest periodically, even those at the back of the queue. Your proposal would force *everyone* to keep interest on the platform for an extended period, with all the additional risk that entails to those funds which could otherwise be withdrawn by *everyone* and protected.
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