morris
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Post by morris on Oct 4, 2020 6:41:55 GMT
With £50.000 you should get 24.49 prizes a year based on 24,500 to one chances of winning. From December you should get 17.39 prizes a year based on 34,500 to one chances of winning. I always assume £25 prizes. Any more is a very rare bonus.
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Oct 4, 2020 10:04:19 GMT
I am 99% sure that prizes are random. The reason for the 1% is as follows. The system for drawing prizes is in two stages, using two different computer systems. The first is the famous ERNIE. This produces pseudo random numbers and is subject to intense scrutiny by experts and I have no qualms about it. However it does not produce winning PB numbers. To get these the random numbers are fed into a normal mainframe computer which holds a database of all eligible PB numbers, and the random numbers are matched (where there is a match, for most random numbers there will not be and it is discarded). Now this is the sort of straight forward data processing job that every other arm of government has had difficulties with. If there is a flaw in the overall system I would bet that it is with this second stage, which AFAIK is not checked out by the statisticians like the first stage.
At any rate this is how it used to be. If anyone has more up to date information I am willing to be corrected.
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coogaruk
Hello everyone! Anyone remember me?
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Post by coogaruk on Nov 3, 2020 15:14:47 GMT
Oops!... I've done it again. Btw, I felt that would have made a great title for a new thread but wouldn't want to upset anyone by creating it
Another £75 won in November's draw, £25 of which is attributable to the same £1k ex-Ratesetter tranche purchased end of June in time for the August draw. It's won me £100 now, all in £25 prizes: 2 in September, 1 in October and 1 this month (that's an amazing return & pretty amazing luck, I would say!)
That said, none of the other PBs purchased from my RS funds have won a penny yet. That's the luck of the draw, I guess.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2020 17:41:48 GMT
Far fewer prizes from the December draw onwards. I've cashed in mine.
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Nov 3, 2020 17:58:45 GMT
Far fewer prizes from the December draw onwards. I've cashed in mine. And put the cash where? I don't know of any other place offering 100% security and 1% (ave) and instant access and tax free.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2020 18:31:34 GMT
Far fewer prizes from the December draw onwards. I've cashed in mine. And put the cash where? I don't know of any other place offering 100% security and 1% (ave) and instant access and tax free. I've still got some (legacy) accounts paying 1.2% instant access. Statistically from December if you hold 50k of premium bonds you're most likely to win £25 (equating to 0.6%). Also plenty of people have won nothing in a month whilst holding 50k under the current prize fund (and some have won more obviously) so, for me, 1% is not what you should be comparing with as a significant proportion is used for the major prizes.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Nov 3, 2020 19:01:32 GMT
And put the cash where? I don't know of any other place offering 100% security and 1% (ave) and instant access and tax free. I've still got some (legacy) accounts paying 1.2% instant access. Statistically from December if you hold 50k of premium bonds you're most likely to win £25 (equating to 0.6%). Also plenty of people have won nothing in a month whilst holding 50k under the current prize fund (and some have won more obviously) so, for me, 1% is not what you should be comparing with as a significant proportion is used for the major prizes. Only 10% of the prize fund is for the major prizes.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2020 19:06:30 GMT
I've still got some (legacy) accounts paying 1.2% instant access. Statistically from December if you hold 50k of premium bonds you're most likely to win £25 (equating to 0.6%). Also plenty of people have won nothing in a month whilst holding 50k under the current prize fund (and some have won more obviously) so, for me, 1% is not what you should be comparing with as a significant proportion is used for the major prizes. Only 10% of the prize fund is for the major prizes. The MSE calculator shows the impact as around 0.2%pa which is more than 10% of both 1.4% (old rate) and 1% (new rate).
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Nov 3, 2020 22:49:26 GMT
If you are a 60% tax payer (yes, they do exist) and are maxed out on ISA's and want 100% security then PBs cannot be beaten.
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beagle
Investor in ratesetter, funding circle, lendy (lesson learnt) and AC
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Post by beagle on Nov 4, 2020 10:02:16 GMT
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coogaruk
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Post by coogaruk on Nov 4, 2020 12:39:52 GMT
Far fewer prizes from the December draw onwards. I've cashed in mine. That's a bit of a short-sighted view, if you don't mind me saying.
My first win this year was in May and I had not won anything since March last year. Since then it's all gone a bit mad, with £25 wins coming thick and fast. I now expect another fallow period, as it all evens out in the end. Of course, some will win above average and others below.
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coogaruk
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Post by coogaruk on Nov 4, 2020 12:42:14 GMT
If you are a 60% tax payer I wish! (not really)
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Nov 4, 2020 12:47:34 GMT
I reckon my inflation rate is about 3% pa. So I’d get a guaranteed loss of about 2%pa.
i think i’ll Still have some risk money in AC and Zopa. Almost keeping up with inflation with them
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2020 13:13:33 GMT
Far fewer prizes from the December draw onwards. I've cashed in mine. That's a bit of a short-sighted view, if you don't mind me saying.
My first win this year was in May and I had not won anything since March last year. Since then it's all gone a bit mad, with £25 wins coming thick and fast. I now expect another fallow period, as it all evens out in the end. Of course, some will win above average and others below.
Each draw is statistically independent. The fact is that the chances of winning are now lower than before so I've cashed in. I don't think that's short-sighted but even if it is it's the right decision for me.
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rscal
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Post by rscal on Nov 4, 2020 17:09:26 GMT
With £50.000 you should get 24.49 prizes a year based on 24,500 to one chances of winning. From December you should get 17.39 prizes a year based on 34,500 to one chances of winning. I always assume £25 prizes. Any more is a very rare bonus.That's a fair way to look at returns. Just looks like the Govt cut those 'average' returns pretty heavily though now sub '1%' [oh but it's 'tax free'...]
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