adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 6, 2022 8:50:34 GMT
Thank you, adrianc , for your detailed attempt to explain the anomaly in the Telegraph's published figure. Perhaps they have indeed done as you suggest (and I'm one of the gullible), but one thing I'd point out is the Statistica graph finishes in 2020. Observing the upward trend in the last four data points, and if that same trend continued to today, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that the blue (immigration) curve hits the one million mark in 2022 that the Telegraph suggests has happened. Except you appear to be ignoring the YE Q2 2021 figures from the ONS. Yes, the YE Q1 2020 figure is slightly higher than the YE Q2 2020 figure - that'll likely be because the Q2 2019 figures were higher than the Q2 2020 ones. I wonder why that might be? YE Q1 2020 = Q2/Q3/Q4 2019/Q1 2020 (Statistica) YE Q2 2020 = Q3/Q4 2019/Q1/Q2 2020 (ONS) Both are four quarters. Three of the four quarters are the same.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jun 6, 2022 8:53:07 GMT
bernythedolt, adrianc, it might not be available in the data yet but could the recent influx of people from Hong Kong (maybe 250k-300k?) account for it?
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Post by overthehill on Jun 6, 2022 9:23:43 GMT
bernythedolt , adrianc , it might not be available in the data yet but could the recent influx of people from Hong Kong (maybe 250k-300k?) account for it?
British National (Overseas) visas
On 31 January 2021, the UK government introduced a new immigration route for British National (Overseas) (BNO) status holders, providing the opportunity for them and their family members to live, work and study in the UK. The route is open to BNO citizens and their dependants who are ordinarily resident in Hong Kong, the UK or the Crown Dependencies.
The UK government has previously estimated that up to 300,000 people could apply for a BNO visa in the first five years of the scheme. The latest statistics show that the route has already attracted tens of thousands of applicants just one and a half years since its launch.
The latest statistics show that there were 19,500 applications for the BNO route in Q1 of 2022, with 18,563 out of country applications, and 900 in country applications. Of the total, 11,500 applications relate to main applicants and 8,000 relate to dependants. There have been a total of 123,400 applications for the BNO route since its introduction on 31st January 2021 up to the end of March 2022.
Study visas
In the year ending March 2022, there were 466,611 Sponsored study visas granted (to both main applicants and their dependants), 58% (+170,368) more than the year ending March 2020. This number is the largest on record, continuing the upwards trend seen each year since September 2020. This sustained increase represents both a recovery from lower numbers during the Covid-19 pandemic and an increase on the pre-pandemic period.
Chinese nationals were the most common nationality granted Sponsored study visas in the year ending March 2022, with 116,967 visas granted, similar to the number seen in the year ending March 2020 (118,291). Chinese students accounted for 25% of the total number of Sponsored study visas granted, the lowest proportion since the year ending March 2012 and much lower than the peak of 43% in the year ending September 2019.
Nigerian nationals saw the largest percentage increase in Sponsored Study grants compared with the year ending March 2020, increasing by 49,532 (+529%) to a record high of 58,887, making them the third largest nationality group in the last year.
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Jun 6, 2022 9:36:52 GMT
... In the UK a doctor has for decades needed top grades from A level onwards (AAA* etc). Do all these hundreds of other institutions all around the world have the same crazily high level? I doubt it on the grounds that they are clearly training enough doctors to let them work abroad. Would a potential medical student in the UK who, to get into med school, needs say 3As and an A* but "only" gets 4As, would they be best advised joining a medical school abroad and then returning back to the UK to practice? Someone needs to sort this mess out. Not all medical schools are quite so selective, but even the least fashionable now seem to demand a minimum of AAB. It used to be lower. I have a niece who got into Plymouth about 10 years ago with (I think) ABB. She's now qualified and working for the NHS in Wales. Supply and demand is the reason. We need to train more doctors but the NHS lacks the capacity to train them. Medical schools can't grow if there's nowhere for their students to do their front line training. www.theguardian.com/society/2022/mar/15/791-medical-graduates-could-miss-out-on-nhs-junior-doctor-training
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 6, 2022 9:45:52 GMT
bernythedolt , adrianc , it might not be available in the data yet but could the recent influx of people from Hong Kong (maybe 250k-300k?) account for it? British National (Overseas) visas
On 31 January 2021, the UK government introduced a new immigration route for British National (Overseas) (BNO) status holders, providing the opportunity for them and their family members to live, work and study in the UK. The route is open to BNO citizens and their dependants who are ordinarily resident in Hong Kong, the UK or the Crown Dependencies.
The UK government has previously estimated that up to 300,000 people could apply for a BNO visa in the first five years of the scheme. The latest statistics show that the route has already attracted tens of thousands of applicants just one and a half years since its launch. The Q1 and Q2 2021 arrivals will be in the ONS figures. The Q3-on arrivals will be in the next set of annual figures. Applications are not, of course, the same as arrivals. And there's no mention there of the number of visas granted, let alone the number of actual arrivals... Section 3 of this doc gives a bit more detail... www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-june-2021/how-many-people-come-to-the-uk-each-year-including-visitors35k out-of-country BNO visas granted in Q1/2 2021, and 12,300 in-country (ie already in the UK), of which 68% were to people with Hong Kong passports. Of course, we don't know when those in-country visa grantees arrived here, so we don't know which set of stats they'd fall into.
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on Jun 6, 2022 10:02:23 GMT
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Post by captainconfident on Jun 13, 2022 17:15:17 GMT
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jun 13, 2022 17:59:55 GMT
I think that, if we could look 200 years into the future, we would see England, all of Europe populated by similarly hued olive skinned people; our children. They will all be proud of their mixed heritage which in its way tells the story of their country, of empire, of history. I rather like the prospect, but even if you don't, it's inevitable, just an idea to get used to. As we are already, English, Welsh, Scottish, Nordic, French, European, Roman and also all sorts of races that came in through the early ports (and with the roman troops) and now more recently many people from all over the world. If you think you are purely English or Welsh etc, you are almost certainly wrong.
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Jun 13, 2022 20:01:23 GMT
I find it really funny when I hear Americans say they are "Irish American" or "African American" when the nearest relative that cam from country 200 years ago.
It seems to be a particularly American thing you never hear 3rd or 4th generation immigrants here saying I'm "Kenyan British" etc
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jun 13, 2022 20:13:47 GMT
I think that, if we could look 200 years into the future, we would see England, all of Europe populated by similarly hued olive skinned people; our children. They will all be proud of their mixed heritage which in its way tells the story of their country, of empire, of history. I rather like the prospect, but even if you don't, it's inevitable, just an idea to get used to. I'm surprised anyone cares too much about any of that. Including you. What I think many of those people who voted Brexit worry about are simply numbers of people and sustainability. This was of lesser concern to me back in 2016 although I am starting to notice it more and more.
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Post by captainconfident on Jun 14, 2022 21:48:59 GMT
I think that, if we could look 200 years into the future, we would see England, all of Europe populated by similarly hued olive skinned people; our children. They will all be proud of their mixed heritage which in its way tells the story of their country, of empire, of history. I rather like the prospect, but even if you don't, it's inevitable, just an idea to get used to. I'm surprised anyone cares too much about any of that. Including you. What I think many of those people who voted Brexit worry about are simply numbers of people and sustainability. This was of lesser concern to me back in 2016 although I am starting to notice it more and more. "The country is full" is a typical right wing indeed closet racist trope. Farming for animal fodder takes up 76% of agricultural land. Eat less meat. The disaster of Brexit has lead to the latest 1.3m job vacancies, and you can choose, low or no growth and falling living standards compared to our nearest neighbours, or a happy land with prosperity for all and celebrating the mixed race that we became as a result with our interactions with the world over the last 20 years. It is too late to turn back the clock and protect the pure white race from the hard working darkies.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jun 14, 2022 22:05:45 GMT
Captainconfident said:
I think that, if we could look 200 years into the future, we would see England, all of Europe populated by similarly hued olive skinned people; our children. They will all be proud of their mixed heritage which in its way tells the story of their country, of empire, of history. I rather like the prospect, but even if you don't, it's inevitable, just an idea to get used to. I'm surprised anyone cares too much about any of that. Including you. What I think many of those people who voted Brexit worry about are simply numbers of people and sustainability. This was of lesser concern to me back in 2016 although I am starting to notice it more and more. "The country is full" is a typical right wing indeed closet racist trope. Farming for animal fodder takes up 76% of agricultural land. Eat less meat. The disaster of Brexit has lead to the latest 1.3m job vacancies, and you can choose, low or no growth and falling living standards compared to our nearest neighbours, or a happy land with prosperity for all and celebrating the mixed race that we became as a result with our interactions with the world over the last 20 years. It is too late to turn back the clock and protect the pure white race from the hard working darkies. I've copied in your original comments and whilst I'm certain you didn't mean this, it looks to me as if it is _you_ who cares more about what colour skin people have or will have. Regarding the "disaster" of full employment I don't know what to say.
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Post by captainconfident on Jun 14, 2022 22:19:52 GMT
I always said, voting for Brexit was a sign that you have no grasp of economics.
And of course I mean exactly what I say. It's not our attitudes that will dictate the future genetics of the British people but the younger British who are quite at home in our society. So it's behoven on us older people to leave them to it. Unfortunately we have a government elected to make real the prejudices of the old but let's hope this is a temporary abberation that will be washed away by buyers remorse at the mess they are making of practically everything.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 15, 2022 7:58:48 GMT
Regarding the "disaster" of full employment I don't know what to say. You think the current employment situation is a good thing?
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Post by bernythedolt on Jun 15, 2022 12:19:46 GMT
I think that, if we could look 200 years into the future, we would see England, all of Europe populated by similarly hued olive skinned people; our children. They will all be proud of their mixed heritage which in its way tells the story of their country, of empire, of history. I rather like the prospect, but even if you don't, it's inevitable, just an idea to get used to. I've been wondering whether it is inevitable? It's a similar timescale to Europeans populating Australia. They still have very much a white population and an aboriginal population there. To many adherents of at least one religion in the UK, marriage to the indigenous white non-believers is anathema. Many do not wish to integrate, but prefer to remain within their own group. I suspect your vision of utopia may take longer than 200 years. Maybe 2000?
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