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Post by badlord on Jun 12, 2021 14:36:02 GMT
Created a Jupiter notebook that analyses Bondora loan's actual probabilities of default and recovery rates: link
If you don't want to run the notebook, you can see the graphs based on today's loan dataset here (scroll down to see the graphs).
NB: This software is provided as is, it may contain mistakes and report wrong outcomes. Please use it on condition that I hold no responsibility for decisions made based on the outcomes this software provides. |
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Post by rahafoorum on Jun 13, 2021 8:03:51 GMT
Any chance you could create the graphs with same scales on the axis? Currently "A-priory annual default rates per loan maturity" looks better than "Actual annual default rates per loan maturity", but only until you realize that the first scale ends at 20% and the second at 80%. Makes it quite difficult to compare.
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Post by badlord on Jun 13, 2021 12:38:52 GMT
Any chance you could create the graphs with same scales on the axis? Currently "A-priory annual default rates per loan maturity" looks better than "Actual annual default rates per loan maturity", but only until you realize that the first scale ends at 20% and the second at 80%. Makes it quite difficult to compare. Very good idea rahafoorum, just made required changes. Check out the results. I'd appreciate if you liked my repo on GitHub if you find this work useful: link
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Post by coolrunning on Jun 14, 2021 12:30:28 GMT
Wow! I am in the company of true experts.
Great stuff.
Why limit it to AA, A and B ?
Thanks
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Post by badlord on Jun 14, 2021 21:17:43 GMT
Wow! I am in the company of true experts.
Great stuff.
Why limit it to AA, A and B ?
Thanks
No problem. Just added C-rated loans to the analysis.
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Post by minthero on Aug 30, 2021 10:16:54 GMT
Very interesting. What about Spain? Do you know where I can find numbers about average interest rates for maturity and rating of loan? What about average time of recovery of defaulted loans?
As far as I understand it, you only get 0.2% interest rate on a defaulted loan and in Finnland you get 0% while the loan is defaulted. Is that correct?
What I mean is a list like this:
3 month B loan -> 5%(for example) interest rate, average time of paying back of a defaulted loan 2 months.
60 month C loan -> 10%(for example) interest rate, average time of paying back once it defaults 4 months
I mean by looking at the general statistics you can find out how much interest you've earned by rating from any given point of time but i'm not sure whether this includes loss of interest due to defaults.
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Post by rahafoorum on Sept 1, 2021 11:01:59 GMT
Very interesting. What about Spain? Do you know where I can find numbers about average interest rates for maturity and rating of loan? What about average time of recovery of defaulted loans?
As far as I understand it, you only get 0.2% interest rate on a defaulted loan and in Finnland you get 0% while the loan is defaulted. Is that correct?
What I mean is a list like this:
3 month B loan -> 5%(for example) interest rate, average time of paying back of a defaulted loan 2 months.
60 month C loan -> 10%(for example) interest rate, average time of paying back once it defaults 4 months
I mean by looking at the general statistics you can find out how much interest you've earned by rating from any given point of time but i'm not sure whether this includes loss of interest due to defaults.
The average recovery time is forever, since you're lucky in general to recover 30-40% of lost principal over 4-5 years based on historical statistics. Of course, last time I checked (a while back), the Estonian loans were still best recoveries and Spanish loans barely recovered at all.
You can use dataset for a more detailed look, or simply use their statistics page for a general overview. Here's a short guide on Bondora's statistics about recovery rate:
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Post by minthero on Sept 2, 2021 7:58:25 GMT
Thank you. Your blog is really useful!
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Post by coolrunning on Sept 6, 2021 7:21:14 GMT
...
You can use dataset for a more detailed look, or simply use their statistics page for a general overview. Here's a short guide on Bondora's statistics about recovery rate: This is the key analysis to look at.
Brilliant !
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shimself
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,563 
Likes: 1,171
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Post by shimself on Mar 11, 2022 12:53:11 GMT
Thanks very much for this Being somewhat spooked by inflation I think I need to increase my risk tolerance. I came here wondering if Bondora had reformed. And you gave me the answer
I worked at Bondora nearly 2 years and quit at the end of 2015, when it became clear that the company had chosen a path I did not want to participate in...... I do have a Bondora referral link if you want the €5 bonus, but I don’t recommend investing your money there.
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