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Post by captainconfident on May 12, 2024 16:08:26 GMT
Certainly pressure in places, but the rate of advance overall is unimpressive. Someone calculated they could reach Lviv in 320 years at this rate. Meanwhile they burn through stockpiles at far greater rate than the Russian economy can replace. Vovchansk certainly could eventually be vulnerable but if you look at the map, it is in the middle of nowhere. Russian munition production has ramped up massively & is set to increase ... far outstripping the ability Ukr has to replenish. Western economies have only just moved towards 'war' production. They don't need to move fast, just sustain pressure on Ukr to grind down their capability. Troops sent to Kharkiv have to be taken from elsewhere, deployment of reserves means less rotation in frontline. There is already evidence of exhaustion in Ukr troops, mistakes happening like the rapid collapse near Avdivka which requiring brigades to be rotated back into line rather than rest to stabilise. Vorkansk might be in the middle of nowhere but it will cost Ukr resources to defend & then don't have much spare. Glide bombs are cheap. The picture is concerning. Problem with predictions is not knowing the state of the Ukrainian army. But defence is always less labour intensive and less costly than attacking. Except, in the case of a place like Vorkansk. If you can get the enemy to defend a symbolic but strategically not necessarily important town, you can waste their army. The Germans found themselves able to do this by accident at Ypres after 1914, where they occupied the high ground around a salient and the British unwisely decided to hold on. At Verdun they deliberately besieged the symbolically important (to the French) City in order to suck in French reserves and then destroy them with artillery.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on May 12, 2024 16:35:43 GMT
Interesting article but don't really see the parallels. Can you confirm you believe the primary reason to the Russian invasion was Ukraine's mineral wealth ?
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angrysaveruk
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Back and to the left..
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 12, 2024 17:24:01 GMT
Thankfully there is a hope this pointless war will end:
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on May 12, 2024 18:10:22 GMT
Oh boy would that be good news !
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Post by captainconfident on May 12, 2024 19:13:54 GMT
This is the guy you mean?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 12, 2024 19:47:00 GMT
There's only two ways Trumplethinskin will end the Ukraine war. One is by giving Ukraine straight to Vlad. The other is by blowing the entire world up. Betting is currently about evens on which of the two is more likely. Anyways... Putin is giving a sideways promotion to his old mate, the defence secretary since 2012... It might just be me, but I don't think that's the action of a man happy with the way things are going. www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/12/putin-to-remove-sergei-shoigu-as-russias-defence-minister
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on May 12, 2024 20:05:53 GMT
This is the guy you mean? Is that for real? Quite funny if not a cut 'n shut editing job.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on May 12, 2024 20:36:35 GMT
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Post by bracknellboy on May 12, 2024 20:47:35 GMT
Oh boy would that be good news ! So just to confirm: you are in favour of Ukraine being thrown to the mercy of whatever Putin wants by way of denuding Ukr of any military support ? Rather than allowing them to go into negotiations in a stronger position by virtue of their at least being able to offer credible military resistance ? What do you think Putin should ask for ? Just the Crimea and Donbas ? + Kharkiv ? Kyiv (presumably not that as you have personal financial interest there). Installation of a puppet regime in hock to Putin ? A la Yanukovych, whose popular ousting and Putin's chagrin at that is after all one of the major reasons 2014 and 2022 happened ? Or are you genuinely of a view that Trump is going to 'end the war in 24 hours' by taking Putin/Russia down, rather than chucking Ukr to the wolves ?
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Post by bracknellboy on May 12, 2024 20:51:38 GMT
This is the guy you mean? Is that for real? Quite funny if not a cut 'n shut editing job. its for real. Reported widely. same rally he also seemed to confuse Hannibal Lecter with a real person. or he was just making a joke.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on May 12, 2024 21:02:55 GMT
Oh boy would that be good news ! So just to confirm: you are in favour of Ukraine being thrown to the mercy of whatever Putin wants by way of denuding Ukr of any military support ? Rather than allowing them to go into negotiations in a stronger position by virtue of their at least being able to offer credible military resistance ? What do you think Putin should ask for ? Just the Crimea and Donbas ? + Kharkiv ? Kyiv (presumably not that as you have personal financial interest there). Installation of a puppet regime in hock to Putin ? A la Yanukovych, whose popular ousting and Putin's chagrin at that is after all one of the major reasons 2014 and 2022 happened ? Or are you genuinely of a view that Trump is going to 'end the war in 24 hours' by taking Putin/Russia down, rather than chucking Ukr to the wolves ? Don't you mean bears ?
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on May 12, 2024 21:05:05 GMT
Interesting article but don't really see the parallels. Can you confirm you believe the primary reason to the Russian invasion was Ukraine's mineral wealth ? Russia has vast mineral wealth you said ... despite that article suggests it's still looking for more ... no, not primary but I doubt it wasn't a factor ... lot nearer & easier than Antarctic or Arctic.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 13, 2024 6:45:42 GMT
Oh boy would that be good news ! So just to confirm: you are in favour of Ukraine being thrown to the mercy of whatever Putin wants by way of denuding Ukr of any military support ? Rather than allowing them to go into negotiations in a stronger position by virtue of their at least being able to offer credible military resistance ? What do you think Putin should ask for ? Just the Crimea and Donbas ? + Kharkiv ? Kyiv (presumably not that as you have personal financial interest there). Installation of a puppet regime in hock to Putin ? A la Yanukovych, whose popular ousting and Putin's chagrin at that is after all one of the major reasons 2014 and 2022 happened ? Or are you genuinely of a view that Trump is going to 'end the war in 24 hours' by taking Putin/Russia down, rather than chucking Ukr to the wolves ? The fact is Ukraine has lost in this War with Russia - which to a number of people was inevitable. A large aggravating factor in this conflict is the Neo-con influenced Biden administration who are obsessed with the idea of using Ukraine as a proxy to fight Russia. I believe if Ukraine agree not to allow themselves to be used by anti-russian western forces to threaten Russia militarily, clamp down on Anti-Russian Banderite extremists and make land concessions to Russia they can end this conflict and start to rebuild their country. Trump realises that Ukraine has lost this war and like myself does not want to see more Ukrainians killed pointlessly - and unlike some people on this forum, I also suspect he is smart enough to realise he does not want to die in a nuclear war. Trump is probably one of the only people in the world who can end this conflict - and if he does he should win the Nobel Peace Prize.
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Post by bracknellboy on May 13, 2024 8:41:35 GMT
So just to confirm: you are in favour of Ukraine being thrown to the mercy of whatever Putin wants by way of denuding Ukr of any military support ? Rather than allowing them to go into negotiations in a stronger position by virtue of their at least being able to offer credible military resistance ? What do you think Putin should ask for ? Just the Crimea and Donbas ? + Kharkiv ? Kyiv (presumably not that as you have personal financial interest there). Installation of a puppet regime in hock to Putin ? A la Yanukovych, whose popular ousting and Putin's chagrin at that is after all one of the major reasons 2014 and 2022 happened ? Or are you genuinely of a view that Trump is going to 'end the war in 24 hours' by taking Putin/Russia down, rather than chucking Ukr to the wolves ? ........ It was inevitable to everyone, IF they weren't provided with continuous and sufficient aid. And it was always an entirely plausible outcome even if they were. The miracle was that they held out for the first 1-2 weeks rather than be steamrollered. Having done so, it was frankly incumbent on democratic powers to open the cupboards to at least give them the option of continuing. Unfortunately, and rather predictably - and indeed predicted by many - the political will from many leaders and countries was more for show than for real, too inconsistent, too late, and too subject to political manoeuvring. The only way Ukr was ever going to drive Russia out was to have continued, consistent and fast support. A longer war ALWAYS favoured Russia. You don't have any special insight into this. This doesn't even merit a response: it comes from the same old script. This is the same Trump who when last in power seriously questioned why he was being (strongly) advised not to use the US's nuclear arsenal, and equally seriously asked what the point of having them was if he couldn't use them ? Several times by all accounts. This is also the same Trump who cares so much about Ukrainians that he blocked payment of a (congressionally mandated) $400m military aid package to the country in an attempt to force Ukraine/Zelensky to carry out investigations into Hunter Biden. For his own electoral benefit i.e. used his presidential powers to try and garner foreign electoral intervention in the 2020 election. [In relation to which, 3 former Ukr officials are now facing treason charges] Trump doesn't give a funning ruck about anyone but himself. So whatever his motives might be - and its hardly difficult to discern them - they ain't what you purport them to be.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 13, 2024 9:02:37 GMT
I believe if Ukraine agree not to allow themselves to be used by anti-russian western forces to threaten Russia militarily, clamp down on Anti-Russian Banderite extremists and make land concessions to Russia they can end this conflict and start to rebuild their country. You mean if Ukraine agrees to be Vlad's special fwiend, agreeing to hand over the keys to whichever bits of itself he wants for his own... Yeh. As for "banderite"... "In propaganda the term has been used by Soviets after 1942 as a pejorative term for Ukrainians, especially western Ukrainians, or Ukrainian speakers; under Vladimir Putin-ruled Russia the term was used by state media as a pejorative for Euromaidan activists and Ukrainians who support sovereignty from Russia."Thank you for confirming exactly where you're coming from on this.
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