michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,703 
Likes: 2,981
Member is Online
|
Post by michaelc on Sept 29, 2024 19:19:19 GMT
Yes a totally unjustified Russia invaded. Now what are we going to do about it ? There's two options. 1. Shrug and do nothing, watching as a sovereign nation just gets invaded by the neighbours on the very edge of Europe. (This will inevitably result in a rinse-and-repeat elsewhere in short order) 2. Support the sovereign nation in repelling the invasion. Those of us who Mr Angry accuses of being warmongers vote for 2. Mr Angry votes for 1. As for your suggestion of "giving up territory" to ask Russia nicely to please go away, that was tried in 2014, remember?
School bullies never ever settled for just one day's dinner money, did they?So we come back to "Ukraine's never going to win". The three-day war is now two and a half years in. Russia is not winning. Ukraine is not losing. Have all the Ukrainian losses so far been in vain? Because if Ukraine shrugs and gives up now, they have. The question now is who blinks first. One thing's for sure, Russia's military reputation is the REALLY big loser so far... If Putin was anything other than a megalomaniacal dictator, Russia would have cut their losses by now. It certainly and obviously wasn't tried hard enough. In summary, we don't do 1 or 2 but 3 which I outlined above. Now can you answer an entirely theoretical question? I know this would be very unlikely to happen but you never know - Trump might get in and despite wanting that I admit he is unpredictable. So here's the question. If the US invaded Mexico for no good reason (maybe they cited too much immigration and too many drugs heading north), should the rest of the world supply arms to Mexico to help it repel the US ? Or should they realise there is nothing they can do because otherwise they risk [nuclear] war with a superpower? Or, if Mexico managed to somehow establish a defesive position, agree to the US taking a buffer zone north of that established line in return for Mexico being given shed loads of military aid plus treaty backup?
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,000
Likes: 5,139
|
Post by adrianc on Sept 29, 2024 19:39:30 GMT
As for your suggestion of "giving up territory" to ask Russia nicely to please go away, that was tried in 2014, remember?
School bullies never ever settled for just one day's dinner money, did they? It certainly and obviously wasn't tried hard enough. How was he not allowed to keep Crimea/Donetsk/Luhansk "enough"? Is that one of those "Yes, Minister" irregular verbs? I'm eccentric. You're unpredictable. He's clinically certifiable. You'd like to hope that even a Trump US would not be quite so barking as to completely ignore the entire international community. In the event of such a rogue US, though...? Well, let's hope it never comes to that. It would, of course, be a question for the UN. Since the US is, as Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, no resolutions could possibly pass - they would all be veto'd. Quite why countries are allowed to vote - let alone veto - resolutions concerning themselves, I have no idea. So how much of Mexico do you plan on allowing a rogue US to keep, in order to placate this "hypothetical" megalomaniacal dictator Trump?  Perhaps a less-hypothetical example would be Israel invading and annexing Lebanon in their chase for the Putin-backed Hezbollah?
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,703
Likes: 2,981
Member is Online
|
Post by michaelc on Sept 29, 2024 20:04:57 GMT
It certainly and obviously wasn't tried hard enough. How was he not allowed to keep Crimea/Donetsk/Luhansk "enough"? Is that one of those "Yes, Minister" irregular verbs? I'm eccentric. You're unpredictable. He's clinically certifiable. You'd like to hope that even a Trump US would not be quite so barking as to completely ignore the entire international community. In the event of such a rogue US, though...? Well, let's hope it never comes to that. It would, of course, be a question for the UN. Since the US is, as Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, no resolutions could possibly pass - they would all be veto'd. Quite why countries are allowed to vote - let alone veto - resolutions concerning themselves, I have no idea. So how much of Mexico do you plan on allowing a rogue US to keep, in order to placate this "hypothetical" megalomaniacal dictator Trump? Perhaps a less-hypothetical example would be Israel invading and annexing Lebanon in their chase for the Putin-backed Hezbollah? Lebanon is not a good example as it was harbouring militia that were lobbing missiles into Israel. Ukraine was doing no such thing before Russia invaded. Either way, you have not answered the question I posed nor the one you wrongly stated was equivalent. Well done in finding Mexico on the map by the way !
|
|
|
|
Post by bernythedolt on Sept 30, 2024 2:17:56 GMT
Glad to hear that. Whether you agree or disagree that sort of "you're not welcome in these 'ere parts" mentality is uncalled for IMO and folk like Adrian who claims to be a liberal councillor ought to know better. Most of the people in this thread have not really thought through the situation in Ukraine, they are basically following the main stream line and part of that line is anyone who does not 100% agree with supporting the continued military conflict in Ukraine is some kind of subversive pro-putin nutter or on the Russian payroll. The fact that Ukraine cannot win in a war against Russia and is facing annihilation, and that this might lead to us all dying in a radioactive hell is irrelevant to them. You are one of the only people in this thread who has any direct links to Ukraine and seem to share my views that this conflict should be brought to an end as soon as possible, even if it means making concessions to Russia. As I have said quite a few times if the various big talkers in this thread had to actually go and fight the Russians in person they would be singing from a very different hymn sheet. Is it a fact that Ukraine cannot win? History has shown that even a superpower can eventually be "run out of town", e.g. Vietnam in the case of the US and Afghanistan in the case of Russia. I'd say it's for Ukraine themselves to decide to what extent they want to resist, and the right-minded, fair-minded, democratic peoples of the world should support their decision not to accede to a brutal imperialist megalomaniac. We'd all like the war to stop ASAP.... but Russia holds the key to that.
|
|
benaj
Member of DD Central
N/A
Posts: 5,608
Likes: 1,738
|
Post by benaj on Sept 30, 2024 6:42:00 GMT
In that case, the US holds the other key for ammunition for war. Lebanon itself wouldn’t be pounded like this without the help of their sophisticated “toys”.
It’s not easy to hear when one wants to propose a ceasefire while supplying the “toys” to the “defender” who doesn’t care the lives of civilians of another sovereignty / “third class” stateless citizens on this planet.
It seems to me the US knew about some levels of their operations for a long time in order supply the right “toys” at the right time.
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,000
Likes: 5,139
|
Post by adrianc on Sept 30, 2024 7:31:11 GMT
In that case, the US holds the other key for ammunition for war. Lebanon itself wouldn’t be pounded like this without the help of their sophisticated “toys”. It’s not easy to hear when one wants to propose a ceasefire while supplying the “toys” to the “defender” who doesn’t care the lives of civilians of another sovereignty / “third class” stateless citizens on this planet. It seems to me the US knew about some levels of their operations for a long time in order supply the right “toys” at the right time. The US has long been a staunch defender of Israel, sure, but it seems that Bibi has gone a bit too far this time even for them, after a year of stretching it as far as he could - and it doesn't seem as if the US knew a thing in advance about the latest Lebanese exploits... Never mind what the Israelis were telling them, and consider the state of their satellite monitoring. That was some covert stuff. I suspect there's diplomatic channels getting increasingly strident, but they're being ignored.
|
|
angrysaveruk
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S
Posts: 1,326
Likes: 785
Member is Online
|
Post by angrysaveruk on Sept 30, 2024 7:46:19 GMT
Most of the people in this thread have not really thought through the situation in Ukraine, they are basically following the main stream line and part of that line is anyone who does not 100% agree with supporting the continued military conflict in Ukraine is some kind of subversive pro-putin nutter or on the Russian payroll. The fact that Ukraine cannot win in a war against Russia and is facing annihilation, and that this might lead to us all dying in a radioactive hell is irrelevant to them. You are one of the only people in this thread who has any direct links to Ukraine and seem to share my views that this conflict should be brought to an end as soon as possible, even if it means making concessions to Russia. As I have said quite a few times if the various big talkers in this thread had to actually go and fight the Russians in person they would be singing from a very different hymn sheet. Is it a fact that Ukraine cannot win? History has shown that even a superpower can eventually be "run out of town", e.g. Vietnam in the case of the US and Afghanistan in the case of Russia. I'd say it's for Ukraine themselves to decide to what extent they want to resist, and the right-minded, fair-minded, democratic peoples of the world should support their decision not to accede to a brutal imperialist megalomaniac. We'd all like the war to stop ASAP.... but Russia holds the key to that. You have to take into account the fact that this war is taking place right on Russia's door step and that the Russian government seems to view a US armed Ukraine (with a government that is heavily influenced by the anti-Russian Neo-Con political faction in the US) as an existential threat to the Russian Federation. In my opinion Ukraine has zero chance of removing Russia from its territory and this is even more the case now that support from the US is coming to an end. Although I am totally against the invasion of Ukraine and the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who have been killed, my views on the origin of this conflict is totally different from most people on this thread - I believe this conflict could have been avoided and that if Ukraine had taken the offer that was put on the table by the Russians in 2022* a lot of dead people would still be alive and the pretty much defenceless EU would not be looking at the nightmare of having an extremely pissed off military super power on its border. * - which I have mentioned a number of times and a number of very high profile people have said was blocked by the US including a former Israeli PM - mronline.org/2023/02/07/former-israeli-pm-bennett-says-u-s-blocked-his-attempts-at-a-russia-ukraine-peace-deal/
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,000
Likes: 5,139
|
Post by adrianc on Sept 30, 2024 8:18:48 GMT
You have to take into account the fact that this war is taking place right on Russia's door step It's also taking place right on the EU's doorstep. Ukraine-Black Sea coast, 2782km Ukraine-Russia border, 1975km Total Ukraine-EU border, 1324km Ukraine-Romania border, 612km Ukraine-Poland border, 530km Ukraine-Slovakia border, 97km Ukraine-Hungary border, 85km Ukraine-Moldova border, 1220km Ukraine-Belarus border, 1024km (I'm including Crimea as Ukraine, obvs) "Give us your keys, wallet, and phone - and nobody'll get hurt."That "peace deal" would have left Ukraine as a <coughs, checks notes> "vassal state" of Russia. Not only would the three territories that Russia had invaded or annexed have been officially recognised as Russian, but Ukraine would have been utterly reliant on Russian agreement for any kind of foreign relationships. Look back at the timeline I gave for the post-1991 direction of travel of Ukraine. Westward-leaning Dec 1991 - Ukraine gets independence from USSR following overwhelming referendum (92%) 1994 - Ukraine joins NATO Partnership for Peace 1997 - NATO-Ukraine Commission 2002 - NATO-Ukraine Action Plan 2005 - Ukraine joins NATO's Intensified Dialogue Nov 2013-Feb 2014 - Euromaidan Mar 2014 - Russia annexes Crimea, UN resolution supports Ukraine Jun 2014 - EU co-operation agreement signed Dec 2014 - Ukrainian Parliament votes to end Neutrality with NATO 2016 - UA signs EU free trade agreement 2017 - Ukrainians get visa-free Schengen access for 90/180 days 2018 - goal of NATO membership enters constitution Feb 2019 - UA constitution amended to include strategic course towards EU membership 2020 - Lublin Triangle Agreement between UA, PL, LT Eastward-leaning 2010 - Ukraine abandons NATO membership, official Neutrality, but continues co-operation 2013 - Yanukovych refuses to sign EU co-operation agreement, looks for closer ties with Russia instead The three years of the corrupt Yanukovych presidency - which ended up in him fleeing the country to Russia following Euromaidan - is the only period in post-independent Ukrainian history where the country has been anything other than westward-leaning. And what was Russia's reaction to Ukraine saying "We don't want Yanukovych"? Overt invasion of one region, covert invasion of two others... It's simply not for Russia to demand who their neighbour is allowed to talk to.
|
|
angrysaveruk
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S
Posts: 1,326
Likes: 785
Member is Online
|
Post by angrysaveruk on Sept 30, 2024 8:59:14 GMT
You have to take into account the fact that this war is taking place right on Russia's door step That "peace deal" would have left Ukraine as a <coughs, checks notes> "vassal state" of Russia. Not only would the three territories that Russia had invaded or annexed have been officially recognised as Russian, but Ukraine would have been utterly reliant on Russian agreement for any kind of foreign relationships. Look back at the timeline I gave for the post-1991 direction of travel of Ukraine. You are missing the point that it was the US that blocked the negotiations, some reports say the Ukrainians were very pleased with the Russian offer: "Oleksiy Arestovych, who was a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team in Istanbul, says the talks in Istanbul were successful and could have worked. He says that the Istanbul agreement was 90% prepared. “We opened the champagne bottle,” he said." - responsiblestatecraft.org/how-will-the-war-in-ukraine-end/ .
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,000
Likes: 5,139
|
Post by adrianc on Sept 30, 2024 10:52:51 GMT
You are missing the point that it was the US that blocked the negotiations Of course it was... according to Russian outlets.(It's usually Boris Johnson who's claimed to have veto'd it. I do wish these conspiracies would make their minds up.) So, please, tell me how the US or UK would veto an agreement between Ukraine and Russia? And, no, don't say "by threatening to cut off support/aid/etc" - because that's exactly what the deal was intended to do.
|
|
angrysaveruk
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S
Posts: 1,326
Likes: 785
Member is Online
|
Post by angrysaveruk on Oct 1, 2024 8:20:19 GMT
You are missing the point that it was the US that blocked the negotiations Of course it was... according to Russian outlets.(It's usually Boris Johnson who's claimed to have veto'd it. I do wish these conspiracies would make their minds up.) So, please, tell me how the US or UK would veto an agreement between Ukraine and Russia? And, no, don't say "by threatening to cut off support/aid/etc" - because that's exactly what the deal was intended to do. How the US exerts control over governments that are under its influence are probably numerous, and I will not mention some of the more nefarious examples. For example there is obviously a lot of corruption in Ukraine and I suspect this has been a factor. The Ukrainians also over estimated the level of support they would get from the US and underestimated the Russians, they probably believed that with full US backing they could defeat Russia and there are factions within Ukraine linked to the Zelensky government who would not take a lot of persuading to enter into a direct conflict with Russia. www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/02/ukraine-to-be-told-it-is-too-corrupt-to-join-nato/
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,000
Likes: 5,139
|
Post by adrianc on Oct 1, 2024 8:27:57 GMT
Of course it was... according to Russian outlets.(It's usually Boris Johnson who's claimed to have veto'd it. I do wish these conspiracies would make their minds up.) So, please, tell me how the US or UK would veto an agreement between Ukraine and Russia? And, no, don't say "by threatening to cut off support/aid/etc" - because that's exactly what the deal was intended to do. How the US exerts control over governments that are under its influence are probably numerous, and I will not mention some of the more nefarious examples. For example there is obviously a lot of corruption in Ukraine and I suspect this has been a factor. The Ukrainians also over estimated the level of support they would get from the US and underestimated the Russians, they probably believed that with full US backing they could defeat Russia and there are factions within Ukraine linked to the Zelensky government who would not take a lot of persuading to enter into a direct conflict with Russia. So you're already rowing back from the US (or UK) "veto'ing", to the Ukrainians walking away in the belief they'd be supported by the US. In other words, the Ukrainians would have only taken it as a last resort.
|
|
angrysaveruk
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S
Posts: 1,326
Likes: 785
Member is Online
|
Post by angrysaveruk on Oct 1, 2024 8:39:32 GMT
How the US exerts control over governments that are under its influence are probably numerous, and I will not mention some of the more nefarious examples. For example there is obviously a lot of corruption in Ukraine and I suspect this has been a factor. The Ukrainians also over estimated the level of support they would get from the US and underestimated the Russians, they probably believed that with full US backing they could defeat Russia and there are factions within Ukraine linked to the Zelensky government who would not take a lot of persuading to enter into a direct conflict with Russia. So you're already rowing back from the US (or UK) "veto'ing", to the Ukrainians walking away in the belief they'd be supported by the US. In other words, the Ukrainians would have only taken it as a last resort. No I am saying there was pressure put on the Zelensky Government and they would have accepted the agreement without that pressure/manipulation into walking away from the agreement. Part of that manipulation was the untruth that Ukraine would get full US backing, but there are certainly other factors. As I have said in my opinion the US arming of Ukraine is nothing to do with wanting to protect Ukrainian Democracy and Freedom* or whatever nonsense the Neo-Cons want the general public to believe. * - Any more than the invasion of Iraq was about protecting the world from Saddam's WMD.
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,000
Likes: 5,139
|
Post by adrianc on Oct 1, 2024 9:02:08 GMT
So you're already rowing back from the US (or UK) "veto'ing", to the Ukrainians walking away in the belief they'd be supported by the US. In other words, the Ukrainians would have only taken it as a last resort. No I am saying there was pressure put on the Zelensky Government and they would have accepted the agreement without that pressure/manipulation into walking away from the agreement. Yes, that's what I said. The only difference is whether you look at it from the perspective of Ukraine or Russia.
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,329
Likes: 11,544
|
Post by ilmoro on Oct 2, 2024 12:52:33 GMT
Meanwhile, while everyone is watching Israel etc (the media only do when war at once) the situation in Ukr is deteriorating. Vulehdar seems to have fallen, possibly with the loss of an experienced mech brigade that held it for 2 yrs, and Russians are advancing at multiple points along the front fairly rapidly (in context) Ukr manpower shortages & poorly trained troops are allowing the Russians to infiltrate & outflank the lines (German WWI stormtrooper tactics) forcing Ukr withdrawal. Kursk incursion has ground to a halt & Russians are retaking territory.
Looks like a crisis point.
|
|
