michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,677 
Likes: 2,974
|
Post by michaelc on Feb 2, 2022 19:56:16 GMT
Entrenched miss-trust that goes back decades if not centuries. On both sides. They see "the west" (does that include Japan, S Korea, Singapore etc?) as historically against them and NATO specifically which for years turned its sights to the USSR but now has almost seamlessly put Russia and China as the enemy. Presumably they believe that the mere existence of an organisation like NATO of which they are not members in and of itself creates world military tension. By "They" though, do you mean the Russian politicians? The ordinary Russians I sometimes mix with are not remotely interested in war or NATO. They just want to get on with business and pleasures of modern life. Of course I don't know anything about the opinions of rural folk in some remote shtetl with only access to State TV, but the young brewing-people I meet are as liberal and informed as I am. Yes politicians and military command etc. (on both sides). Especially those easily old enough to remember the cold war. And I agree with you entirely about the people and your thoughts on "middle Russia". The odd thing is the culture/type of person you meet is very similar in Ukraine which is why Ukrainians can't believe they'll be attacked... While I'm here I'm gonna stick my neck out and say the _spark_ for the current tension comes from Ukraine government. 10 years ago walk around Kyiv and you would only ever hear the Russian language. Maybe even 5 years ago. Like my wife, most speak both languages natively (Russian and Ukrainian) but most then would typically chose to converse in Russian. Now its probably 50:50 with the younger folk more likely to speak Ukrainian . Also the government imposed a law that forced all customer facing businesses such as shops/restaurants to initially address their clientele in Ukrainian (the language can change but the initial greeting must be in Ukranian). So to speak Russian requires a step change in the conversation and hence many conversations you here are Ukrainian (albeit simple stuff like "how much for this bottle of vodka?"). They also banned all official Russian documentation/signs/etc - it must all be in Ukrainian and going around Kyiv on trolley buses and elsewhere they've actually started to introduce the English (actually american) language quite a bit. You could be sat on a tram and here the stop announcements first in Ukrainian and then English. It somehow makes me feel embarrassed to be British as so few people would benefit from such a translation. Tourists use the metro but not many on the trams.... The language/culture is just a symptom of an extremely rapid movement westwards. I'm sure most people who voted for Zelensky do want to keep their ears well open to the EU and the the "west" (although a smaller minority would prefer stronger ties with Russia) but what they definitely did NOT vote for was to receive weapons/training in fairly large amounts from the US/UK and generally did NOT vote to risk a war with any of their neighbours and certainly didn't vote to be a proxy poodle of the US. I can't see any of them (bar some extreme cases) really fighting should an invasion come. I think they are too intelligent for that.
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,677
Likes: 2,974
|
Post by michaelc on Feb 2, 2022 19:57:51 GMT
I've no link to this but a retired US general said on a US radio show that one thing to look for is whether Russia move large scale medical, vehicle recovery and engineering units to the front. So far only the minimum, what you would need for training is in place. He said the alarm bells will really go of if the Russians started setting up large MASH units close to the border. I guess there are 80/90 year olds on both sides shaking their heads in disbelief. There won't be many on the Russian side - they don't live long enough. Life expectancy 73, around ten years lower than much of Europe. Yes sadly most of them still smoke and many drink heavily.
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,618
Likes: 6,432
|
Post by registerme on Feb 2, 2022 20:11:58 GMT
Can't really blame them if they're still more than a tad sore about the Holodomor. |
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2022 22:56:19 GMT
Can't really blame them if they're still more than a tad sore about the Holodomor. Which was kept secret until roughly the 90s. Once it became apparent that the Russians had starved many millions of Ukrainians to death and covered it up it was always going to be a tough sell. So while ignorant people blame the present Ukrainian government most bright people blame the Russians and the previous Ukrainian government who kowtowed to the Russians. Only a troll.
|
|
|
|
Post by captainconfident on Feb 2, 2022 23:43:42 GMT
By "They" though, do you mean the Russian politicians? The ordinary Russians I sometimes mix with are not remotely interested in war or NATO. They just want to get on with business and pleasures of modern life. Of course I don't know anything about the opinions of rural folk in some remote shtetl with only access to State TV, but the young brewing-people I meet are as liberal and informed as I am. Yes politicians and military command etc. (on both sides). Especially those easily old enough to remember the cold war. And I agree with you entirely about the people and your thoughts on "middle Russia". The odd thing is the culture/type of person you meet is very similar in Ukraine which is why Ukrainians can't believe they'll be attacked... While I'm here I'm gonna stick my neck out and say the _spark_ for the current tension comes from Ukraine government. 10 years ago walk around Kyiv and you would only ever hear the Russian language. Maybe even 5 years ago. Like my wife, most speak both languages natively (Russian and Ukrainian) but most then would typically chose to converse in Russian. Now its probably 50:50 with the younger folk more likely to speak Ukrainian . Also the government imposed a law that forced all customer facing businesses such as shops/restaurants to initially address their clientele in Ukrainian (the language can change but the initial greeting must be in Ukranian). So to speak Russian requires a step change in the conversation and hence many conversations you here are Ukrainian (albeit simple stuff like "how much for this bottle of vodka?"). They also banned all official Russian documentation/signs/etc - it must all be in Ukrainian and going around Kyiv on trolley buses and elsewhere they've actually started to introduce the English (actually american) language quite a bit. You could be sat on a tram and here the stop announcements first in Ukrainian and then English. It somehow makes me feel embarrassed to be British as so few people would benefit from such a translation. Tourists use the metro but not many on the trams.... The language/culture is just a symptom of an extremely rapid movement westwards. I'm sure most people who voted for Zelensky do want to keep their ears well open to the EU and the the "west" (although a smaller minority would prefer stronger ties with Russia) but what they definitely did NOT vote for was to receive weapons/training in fairly large amounts from the US/UK and generally did NOT vote to risk a war with any of their neighbours and certainly didn't vote to be a proxy poodle of the US. I can't see any of them (bar some extreme cases) really fighting should an invasion come. I think they are too intelligent for that. I think in spite of what I wrote, the normalness of the cosmopolitan Russian may be less of a factor in averting war. It is a nation used to seeing their country at war vicariously, on TV - Chechenya, Crimea, Syria. So while not favouring an attack on Ukraine, the majority is likely to tend towards the fatalistic, passive view that this is the kind of thing the government-military of Russia does and it is a not unusual thing that they have seen before. So the population of this country may not be as much of a stay on the hand of the ruler as it would be in a country unfamiliar with their government edging towards attacking another.
|
|
travolta
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,506
Likes: 1,214
|
Post by travolta on Feb 3, 2022 9:10:07 GMT
It will be sad to see Russian tanks rolling in as they did in Czechoslovakia.
We have a security presence in the Ukraine,poised to retreat.
Can Putin really just turn them around and put the Army back in the box after he has taken this position?
He will lose face and look weak .
It must be costing a fortune having them just sitting there and they will be needed to get the harvest in.
My money is on mid Feb ,unless someone comes up with an unlikely face saving gambit.
Its keeping the UK Defence Ministry on its toes and providing welcome relief from the 'we are offended' media chorus.
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,030
Likes: 4,431
|
Post by agent69 on Feb 3, 2022 9:56:48 GMT
It will be sad to see Russian tanks rolling in as they did in Czechoslovakia. We have a security presence in the Ukraine,poised to retreat. Can Putin really just turn them around and put the Army back in the box after he has taken this position? He will lose face and look weak . It must be costing a fortune having them just sitting there and they will be needed to get the harvest in. My money is on mid Feb ,unless someone comes up with an unlikely face saving gambit. Its keeping the UK Defence Ministry on its toes and providing welcome relief from the 'we are offended' media chorus. I think it was previously suggested that China wouldn't be impressed if he invaded during the Olympics.
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,030
Likes: 4,431
|
Post by agent69 on Feb 3, 2022 9:59:39 GMT
Yes politicians and military command etc. (on both sides). Especially those easily old enough to remember the cold war. And I agree with you entirely about the people and your thoughts on "middle Russia". The odd thing is the culture/type of person you meet is very similar in Ukraine which is why Ukrainians can't believe they'll be attacked... While I'm here I'm gonna stick my neck out and say the _spark_ for the current tension comes from Ukraine government. 10 years ago walk around Kyiv and you would only ever hear the Russian language. Maybe even 5 years ago. Like my wife, most speak both languages natively (Russian and Ukrainian) but most then would typically chose to converse in Russian. Now its probably 50:50 with the younger folk more likely to speak Ukrainian . Also the government imposed a law that forced all customer facing businesses such as shops/restaurants to initially address their clientele in Ukrainian (the language can change but the initial greeting must be in Ukranian). So to speak Russian requires a step change in the conversation and hence many conversations you here are Ukrainian (albeit simple stuff like "how much for this bottle of vodka?"). They also banned all official Russian documentation/signs/etc - it must all be in Ukrainian and going around Kyiv on trolley buses and elsewhere they've actually started to introduce the English (actually american) language quite a bit. You could be sat on a tram and here the stop announcements first in Ukrainian and then English. It somehow makes me feel embarrassed to be British as so few people would benefit from such a translation. Tourists use the metro but not many on the trams.... The language/culture is just a symptom of an extremely rapid movement westwards. I'm sure most people who voted for Zelensky do want to keep their ears well open to the EU and the the "west" (although a smaller minority would prefer stronger ties with Russia) but what they definitely did NOT vote for was to receive weapons/training in fairly large amounts from the US/UK and generally did NOT vote to risk a war with any of their neighbours and certainly didn't vote to be a proxy poodle of the US. I can't see any of them (bar some extreme cases) really fighting should an invasion come. I think they are too intelligent for that. I think the Afghan army tried that, and look what a mess their country is in now.
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,618
Likes: 6,432
|
Post by registerme on Feb 3, 2022 10:03:53 GMT
I think it was previously suggested that China wouldn't be impressed if he invaded during the Olympics. Although he did manage to invade Georgia during the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics in 2008.
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,677
Likes: 2,974
|
Post by michaelc on Feb 3, 2022 13:08:12 GMT
Yes politicians and military command etc. (on both sides). Especially those easily old enough to remember the cold war. And I agree with you entirely about the people and your thoughts on "middle Russia". The odd thing is the culture/type of person you meet is very similar in Ukraine which is why Ukrainians can't believe they'll be attacked... While I'm here I'm gonna stick my neck out and say the _spark_ for the current tension comes from Ukraine government. 10 years ago walk around Kyiv and you would only ever hear the Russian language. Maybe even 5 years ago. Like my wife, most speak both languages natively (Russian and Ukrainian) but most then would typically chose to converse in Russian. Now its probably 50:50 with the younger folk more likely to speak Ukrainian . Also the government imposed a law that forced all customer facing businesses such as shops/restaurants to initially address their clientele in Ukrainian (the language can change but the initial greeting must be in Ukranian). So to speak Russian requires a step change in the conversation and hence many conversations you here are Ukrainian (albeit simple stuff like "how much for this bottle of vodka?"). They also banned all official Russian documentation/signs/etc - it must all be in Ukrainian and going around Kyiv on trolley buses and elsewhere they've actually started to introduce the English (actually american) language quite a bit. You could be sat on a tram and here the stop announcements first in Ukrainian and then English. It somehow makes me feel embarrassed to be British as so few people would benefit from such a translation. Tourists use the metro but not many on the trams.... The language/culture is just a symptom of an extremely rapid movement westwards. I'm sure most people who voted for Zelensky do want to keep their ears well open to the EU and the the "west" (although a smaller minority would prefer stronger ties with Russia) but what they definitely did NOT vote for was to receive weapons/training in fairly large amounts from the US/UK and generally did NOT vote to risk a war with any of their neighbours and certainly didn't vote to be a proxy poodle of the US. I can't see any of them (bar some extreme cases) really fighting should an invasion come. I think they are too intelligent for that. I think in spite of what I wrote, the normalness of the cosmopolitan Russian may be less of a factor in averting war. It is a nation used to seeing their country at war vicariously, on TV - Chechenya, Crimea, Syria. So while not favouring an attack on Ukraine, the majority is likely to tend towards the fatalistic, passive view that this is the kind of thing the government-military of Russia does and it is a not unusual thing that they have seen before. So the population of this country may not be as much of a stay on the hand of the ruler as it would be in a country unfamiliar with their government edging towards attacking another. There's quite a difference though when it is next door. Its almost like English troops poised to attack Wales. Before you say Chechenya is next door remember that for russians these really are "foreigners" as most of them are muslims and are definitely in a distinct ethnic group. Ukranians share the same flavour of christianity as the russians, speak the same language are culturually very similar. They also share lots of common family trees (common to have a grandfather or great-grandfather on one side or the other). To the russians and ukranians I know, an invasion of their "little brother" would seem unthinkable. Maybe thats why there is still zero panic there - I don't know. To agent69 Afganistan has been in a mess for many decades. If russia manages to bloodlessly put in a puppet into kyiv, I doubt most ukranians would care - it would replace one corrupt, rich leader with another and life wouldn't change/improve. It would be worse for me though.
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,978
Likes: 5,131
Member is Online
|
Post by adrianc on Feb 3, 2022 15:05:10 GMT
There's quite a difference though when it is next door. Its almost like English troops poised to attack Wales. No, it wouldn't. England and Wales are both part of the same country, the United Kingdom...
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,677
Likes: 2,974
|
Post by michaelc on Feb 3, 2022 15:42:20 GMT
There's quite a difference though when it is next door. Its almost like English troops poised to attack Wales. No, it wouldn't. England and Wales are both part of the same country, the United Kingdom... Different in that respect but they were part of the same country until 20-30 years ago so a lot of people remember it. Wouldn't happen I know BUT (and you do have a fair amount of sheep lovers nationalists who do not like the english much) if Wales split off from the UK, forced everyone to speak Welsh and stopped issuing any public documents, licences, road signs in english would the rest of england feel like invading 30 years down the line? No! Because many/most would still identify very closely with the english. To make it worse, imagine if the Welsh then started receiving weaponry and other assets from say China (i.e. an enemy of ours) and wanted to install strategic weapons there. We, the english, wouldn't be happy at all and might start amassing troops on the Welsh border. But would our squaddies be minded to engage with your Welsh ones? I can't see it at all. Its incredibly hypothetical but its the best way I can explain what I think is going on right now.
|
|
travolta
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,506
Likes: 1,214
|
Post by travolta on Feb 3, 2022 15:59:06 GMT
British squaddies are happy to attack anyone as long as they are allowed to fight dirty .
Its no secret that our Special Forces are massed on the Welsh Border , is it Adrian?
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,618
Likes: 6,432
|
Post by registerme on Feb 3, 2022 16:00:51 GMT
Its no secret that our Special Forces are massed on the Welsh Border I got a good chuckle out of that, thank you  .
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,978
Likes: 5,131
Member is Online
|
Post by adrianc on Feb 3, 2022 16:08:18 GMT
No, it wouldn't. England and Wales are both part of the same country, the United Kingdom... Different in that respect but they were part of the same country until 20-30 years ago so a lot of people remember it. Well, yes... You could equally suggest Serbia and Bosnia, say. They were both part of the same country back in the communist times, too... Scotland might be a better example?
|
|
.