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Post by Ace on May 23, 2022 20:51:55 GMT
I've been passively running down my AC accounts (standard and ISA) since late 2020. The main reason was that there were no loans for a long time, then, since new loans have restarted I haven't found them attractive. My AC journey started in March 2018. I mainly invested in the MLA, but did have small amounts in the GBBA2 and the PSA. I also had funds in the AA accounts for a while, but withdrew from them once the great constipation cleared. Overall I enjoyed my time with AC, particularly the MLA. I particularly enjoyed trading on the SM when it was much more active, and made a fair profit from doing so. At its peak my AC total funds on platform was a little over £30k. At its height my XIRR was around 11.2%. The XIRR has been steadily falling for around 18 months now (roughly since I started to passively run down). I have had some minor reinvestments during that time from some buy instructions that I was happy to leave in place. My total investments remaining on the platform are now less than my total profit, so I'm guaranteed to end up in profit. Earlier this month I decided to exit as quickly as possible and put all my remaining tradeable loans up for sale at par. They all sold within 1 day (only 4 out of 25 were still tradeable). Here's a table of info of how the account stood at some random dates that I happened to record the data. I'll try to remember to update it once per month to see how the XIRR progresses. My best guess is that it will end up somewhere near 6.5%. Nowhere near what I had hoped for, but still a decent return if that's where it ends. I've ignored the 6 loans I have remaining in the GBBA2 and PSA accounts as they have a total of under £1 remaining. The Outstanding Capital column is the Total Invested Funds - Remaining funds in written off loans. The # of loans column is the number of loans where AC comments don't indicate that there will be no further recovery. The PCLoss column is the Predicted Capital Loss according to AC's Capital Valuations. The XIRR Inc PCL is what the XIRR would be if the Predicted Capital Loss was written off on the recording date. | Date | XIRR | Outstanding Capital | # of MA loans | PCLoss | XIRR Inc PCL | | 20/10/21 | 9.93% | £10,948.17 |
| ~£1,600 | 7.46% | | 17/02/22 | 9.80% | £9,373.56 |
| £1,756.01 | 7.27% | | 12/05/22 | 9.64% | £7,826.44 | 21 | £1,790.36 | 7.16% | | 12/06/22 | 9.62% | £5,558.04 | 14 | £1,780.44 | 7.19% | | 12/07/22 | 9.58% | £4,923.45 | 13 | £1,820.69 | 7.11% | | 12/08/22 | 9.52%
| £4,923.45
| 13
| £1,820.69
| 7.09% | | 12/09/22 | 9.47%
| £4,923.45
| 13
| £1,820.69
| 7.06% | | 12/10/22 | 9.34% | £4,858.81 | 8 | £1,756.05 | 7.03% | | 12/11/22 | 9.29% | £4,858.81
| 8 | £1,756.05
| 7.01% | | 12/12/22 | 9.08% | £4,728.61 | 7 | £1,653.65
| 6.94% | | 12/01/23 | 9.03%
| £4,609.94 | 6 | £1,653.65
| 6.90%
| | 12/02/23 | 8.98% | £4,609.40 | 6 | £1,653.65 | 6.88% | | 13/03/23 | 8.95% | £4,609.40 | 6 | £1,653.65
| 6.86%
| | 12/04/23 | 8.94% | £4,609.40
| 6 | £1,653.65
| 6.85% | | 12/05/23 | 8.90% | £3,386.45 | 5 | £1,986.23 | 6.41% | | 12/06/23 | 8.87% | £3,372.59 | 5 | £1,986.23
| 6.40%
| | 12/07/23 | 8.82% | £3,369.47 | 5 | £1,986.23 | 6.37% | | 12/08/23 | 8.79% | £3,368.49 | 5 | £1,986.23 | 6.35% | | 16/09/23 | 8.76% | £3,365.19 | 5 | £2,492.48 | 5.69% | | 12/10/23 | 8.74% | £3,362.88 | 5 | £2,791.23 | 5.28% | | 12/11/23 | 8.73% | £3,361.97 | 5 | £2,791.23
| 5.30% | | 12/12/23 | 8.70% | £3,359.73 | 5 | £2,791.23
| 5.30%
| | 12/01/24 | 8.68% | £3,357.67 | 5 | £2,791.23
| 5.29% | | 12/02/24 | 8.78% | £3,356.24 | 5 | £2,791.23 | 5.44% | | 12/03/24 | 8.76% | £3,354.25 | 5 | £2,791.23
| 5.44% | | 12/04/24 | 8.73% | £3,351.61 | 5 | £2,791.23 | 5.44%
| | 12/05/24 | 8.71% | £3,350.88 | 5 | £2,791.23
| 5.44%
| 12/06/24
| 8.68%
| £3,348.67 | 5 | £2,791.23
| 5.43%
| | 12/07/24 | 8.66% | £3,347.09 | 5 | £2,791.23
| 5.43%
| | 12/08/24 | 8.63% | £3,344.09 | 5 | £3,047.11 | 5.11% | | 12/09/24 | 8.61% | £3,341.27 | 5 | £3,047.11
| 5.10% | | 12/10/24 | 8.59% | £3,337.54 | 5 | £3,047.11
| 5.09% | | 12/11/24 | 8.56% | £3,334.90 | 5 | £3,260.41 | 4.81% |
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mogish
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,105
Likes: 527
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Post by mogish on Jun 10, 2022 14:11:49 GMT
I should hopefully be in a position to close my account by 2045 by the time overdue loans are collected.
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jo
Member of DD Central
dead
Posts: 741 
Likes: 498
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Post by jo on Jun 10, 2022 16:05:11 GMT
I should hopefully be in a position to close my account by 2045 by the time overdue loans are collected. Close your account? You're assuming they'll have 'developed' the capacity to write-off loans by then. 
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Post by Ace on Jun 12, 2022 22:43:24 GMT
I've added a monthly update to the table in the OP.
I was pleased to see a large drop in the number of outstanding loans.
I was also pleased to see that the expected capital loss has reduced slightly. I expected this to go one way only, and it wasn't downwards.
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Post by df on Jun 13, 2022 16:30:08 GMT
I've been passively running down my AC accounts (standard and ISA) since late 2020. The main reason was that there were no loans for a long time, then, since new loans have restarted I haven't found them attractive. My AC journey started in March 2018. I mainly invested in the MLA, but did have small amounts in the GBBA2 and the PSA. I also had funds in the AA accounts for a while, but withdrew from them once the great constipation cleared. Overall I enjoyed my time with AC, particularly the MLA. I particularly enjoyed trading on the SM when it was much more active, and made a fair profit from doing so. At its peak my AC total funds on platform was a little over £30k. At its height my XIRR was around 11.2%. The XIRR has been steadily falling for around 18 months now (roughly since I started to passively run down). I have had some minor reinvestments during that time from some buy instructions that I was happy to leave in place. My total investments remaining on the platform are now less than my total profit, so I'm guaranteed to end up in profit. Earlier this month I decided to exit as quickly as possible and put all my remaining tradeable loans up for sale at par. They all sold within 1 day (only 4 out of 25 were still tradeable). Here's a table of info of how the account stood at some radom dates that I happened to record the data. I'll try to remember to update it once per month to see how the XIRR progresses. My best guess is that it will end up somewhere near 6.5%. Nowhere near what I had hoped for, but still a decent return if that's where it ends. I've ignored the 6 loans I have remaining in the GBBA2 and PSA accounts as they have a total of under £1 remaining. The PCLoss column is the Predicted Capital Loss according to AC's Capital Valuations. The XIRR Inc PCL is what the XIRR would be if the Predicted Capital Loss was written off on the recording date. | Date | XIRR | Outstanding Capital | # of loans | PCLoss | XIRR Inc PCL | | 20/10/21 | 9.93% | £10,948.17 |
| ~£1,600 | 7.46% | | 17/02/22 | 9.80% | £9,373.56 |
| £1,756.01 | 7.27% | | 12/05/22 | 9.64% | £7,826.44 | 21 | £1,790.36 | 7.16% | | 12/06/22 | 9.62% | £5,558.04 | 14 | £1,780.44 | 7.19% |
How many of your 14 loans do you think are likely to repay? I'm in nearly 400 loans. My XIRR tends to go up slightly every time I check, currently 6.56%. My portfolio is 1.2% in Green, 2.8% in Great MK1, 3.8 in 30D and 4.1 in QAA - the rest is in MLA. I use AAs for topping up MLA when needed, so I don't deposit any new money to AC (last deposit I've made was in January 2020). The total amount on the platform is 25% of what it used to be few years ago, I'm now approaching that point when my profit will be equal to the amount on the platform.
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Post by Ace on Jun 13, 2022 16:51:30 GMT
I've been passively running down my AC accounts (standard and ISA) since late 2020. The main reason was that there were no loans for a long time, then, since new loans have restarted I haven't found them attractive. My AC journey started in March 2018. I mainly invested in the MLA, but did have small amounts in the GBBA2 and the PSA. I also had funds in the AA accounts for a while, but withdrew from them once the great constipation cleared. Overall I enjoyed my time with AC, particularly the MLA. I particularly enjoyed trading on the SM when it was much more active, and made a fair profit from doing so. At its peak my AC total funds on platform was a little over £30k. At its height my XIRR was around 11.2%. The XIRR has been steadily falling for around 18 months now (roughly since I started to passively run down). I have had some minor reinvestments during that time from some buy instructions that I was happy to leave in place. My total investments remaining on the platform are now less than my total profit, so I'm guaranteed to end up in profit. Earlier this month I decided to exit as quickly as possible and put all my remaining tradeable loans up for sale at par. They all sold within 1 day (only 4 out of 25 were still tradeable). Here's a table of info of how the account stood at some radom dates that I happened to record the data. I'll try to remember to update it once per month to see how the XIRR progresses. My best guess is that it will end up somewhere near 6.5%. Nowhere near what I had hoped for, but still a decent return if that's where it ends. I've ignored the 6 loans I have remaining in the GBBA2 and PSA accounts as they have a total of under £1 remaining. The PCLoss column is the Predicted Capital Loss according to AC's Capital Valuations. The XIRR Inc PCL is what the XIRR would be if the Predicted Capital Loss was written off on the recording date. | Date | XIRR | Outstanding Capital | # of loans | PCLoss | XIRR Inc PCL | | 20/10/21 | 9.93% | £10,948.17 |
| ~£1,600 | 7.46% | | 17/02/22 | 9.80% | £9,373.56 |
| £1,756.01 | 7.27% | | 12/05/22 | 9.64% | £7,826.44 | 21 | £1,790.36 | 7.16% | | 12/06/22 | 9.62% | £5,558.04 | 14 | £1,780.44 | 7.19% |
How many of your 14 loans do you think are likely to repay? I'm in nearly 400 loans. My XIRR tends to go up slightly every time I check, currently 6.56%. My portfolio is 1.2% in Green, 2.8% in Great MK1, 3.8 in 30D and 4.1 in QAA - the rest is in MLA. I use AAs for topping up MLA when needed, so I don't deposit any new money to AC (last deposit I've made was in January 2020). The total amount on the platform is 25% of what it used to be few years ago, I'm now approaching that point when my profit will be equal to the amount on the platform. It's a good feeling when total profits exceed remaining capital. If my remaining outstanding capital was all written off today my XIRR would be 1.06% 🤔. I haven't invested in any new loans for a long time now, they just don't appear competitive to me. Therefore, all the remaining loans are troubled to some extent. 10 of the 14 are officially in Default state. Only 3 have a Capital Valuation of 100%, so my best guess at the moment is that only those 3 will repay in full. 4 have a Capital Valuation of 0%, so, presumably, they will eventually be written off. Does anyone know if AC have ever actually written a loan off, and how I could tell from my loan book if I have any that have been written off? The other 7 have Capital Valuations ranging from 21% to 97%. I'm still expecting to end up with a final XIRR of about 6.5%.
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Post by overthehill on Jun 13, 2022 17:03:57 GMT
I've been passively running down my AC accounts (standard and ISA) since late 2020. The main reason was that there were no loans for a long time, then, since new loans have restarted I haven't found them attractive. My AC journey started in March 2018. I mainly invested in the MLA, but did have small amounts in the GBBA2 and the PSA. I also had funds in the AA accounts for a while, but withdrew from them once the great constipation cleared. Overall I enjoyed my time with AC, particularly the MLA. I particularly enjoyed trading on the SM when it was much more active, and made a fair profit from doing so. At its peak my AC total funds on platform was a little over £30k. At its height my XIRR was around 11.2%. The XIRR has been steadily falling for around 18 months now (roughly since I started to passively run down). I have had some minor reinvestments during that time from some buy instructions that I was happy to leave in place. My total investments remaining on the platform are now less than my total profit, so I'm guaranteed to end up in profit. Earlier this month I decided to exit as quickly as possible and put all my remaining tradeable loans up for sale at par. They all sold within 1 day (only 4 out of 25 were still tradeable). Here's a table of info of how the account stood at some radom dates that I happened to record the data. I'll try to remember to update it once per month to see how the XIRR progresses. My best guess is that it will end up somewhere near 6.5%. Nowhere near what I had hoped for, but still a decent return if that's where it ends. I've ignored the 6 loans I have remaining in the GBBA2 and PSA accounts as they have a total of under £1 remaining. The PCLoss column is the Predicted Capital Loss according to AC's Capital Valuations. The XIRR Inc PCL is what the XIRR would be if the Predicted Capital Loss was written off on the recording date. | Date | XIRR | Outstanding Capital | # of loans | PCLoss | XIRR Inc PCL | | 20/10/21 | 9.93% | £10,948.17 |
| ~£1,600 | 7.46% | | 17/02/22 | 9.80% | £9,373.56 |
| £1,756.01 | 7.27% | | 12/05/22 | 9.64% | £7,826.44 | 21 | £1,790.36 | 7.16% | | 12/06/22 | 9.62% | £5,558.04 | 14 | £1,780.44 | 7.19% |
The XIRR figures before capital losses are surprisingly high looking at the spread of interest rates of the remaining active loans, there is a barely a loan over 9% and not surpisingly all are suspended. You must have been selective with your loan picking. Or have their rates come down that much ? You'd be strugging now to achieve an XIRR of 6% before capital losses.
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Post by Ace on Jun 13, 2022 17:25:26 GMT
The XIRR figures before capital losses are surprisingly high looking at the spread of interest rates of the remaining active loans, there is a barely a loan over 9% and not surpisingly all are suspended. You must have been selective with your loan picking. Or have their rates come down that much ? You'd be strugging now to achieve an XIRR of 6% before capital losses. Yes, you're quite right. I was very selective. Because I used to try to do detailed DD on the loans, and there were soooo many, I only really bothered with those over 7.5%. I ended up with a large amount in the diamond loan, which was always my favourite and paid something like 12%. I also made extra profit from SM trading, and a small amount from the many cashback incentives. I've been lucky on AC when rates were much higher, but am still likely to end up with only around 6.5%. I'm really surprised how low the rates are now. I got an email today for a loan at 5% with a 75% LTV. I didn't bother to look at it since I've decided to withdraw, so perhaps there's something that makes it particularly safe, but on the face of it it looks to be too low to me.
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bugs4me
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,845
Likes: 1,478
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Post by bugs4me on Jun 13, 2022 17:59:21 GMT
The XIRR figures before capital losses are surprisingly high looking at the spread of interest rates of the remaining active loans, there is a barely a loan over 9% and not surpisingly all are suspended. You must have been selective with your loan picking. Or have their rates come down that much ? You'd be strugging now to achieve an XIRR of 6% before capital losses. Yes, you're quite right. I was very selective. Because I used to try to do detailed DD on the loans, and there were soooo many, I only really bothered with those over 7.5%. I ended up with a large amount in the diamond loan, which was always my favourite and paid something like 12%. I also made extra profit from SM trading, and a small amount from the many cashback incentives. I've been lucky on AC when rates were much higher, but am still likely to end up with only around 6.5%. I'm really surprised how low the rates are now. I got an email today for a loan at 5% with a 75% LTV. I didn't bother to look at it since I've decided to withdraw, so perhaps there's something that makes it particularly safe, but on the face of it it looks to be too low to me. I finally exited AC over 3 years ago and the XIRR finalised at 11.95%. I was fortunate/lucky that when rates started plummeting, the T's&C's were opaquely amended, valid questions were being evaded, there was a great deal of evidence re conflicting interests, full background disclosure ceased with the loan offerings resulting in the need to spend time carrying out my own DD and unearthing unsavoury items which should have been disclosed - the list goes on and on resulting in my conclusion that the platform was no longer placing the lender in it's high priority column then it was time to move on. Once the trust goes, for whatever reason exit as soon as possible in my book.
Plus of course there was the reported 'cock up' on those black box accounts and the infamous PF which at it's discretion would pay out in the event of a declared default which was never in the interests of AC to do. And don't get me started on those monthly monitoring fees even though there is/was really nothing more to monitor.
So considering it's now 2022, I think Ace has done very well. Many folks still have funds tied up until  ??. Meanwhile my view is the bosses have their attentions turned elsewhere and whilst P2P was always a risk at 12% it was a calculated one. At 5% all it takes is one loan in 20 to go sour and your gains are more than wiped out.
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Post by df on Jun 13, 2022 18:39:54 GMT
How many of your 14 loans do you think are likely to repay? I'm in nearly 400 loans. My XIRR tends to go up slightly every time I check, currently 6.56%. My portfolio is 1.2% in Green, 2.8% in Great MK1, 3.8 in 30D and 4.1 in QAA - the rest is in MLA. I use AAs for topping up MLA when needed, so I don't deposit any new money to AC (last deposit I've made was in January 2020). The total amount on the platform is 25% of what it used to be few years ago, I'm now approaching that point when my profit will be equal to the amount on the platform. It's a good feeling when total profits exceed remaining capital. If my remaining outstanding capital was all written off today my XIRR would be 1.06% 🤔. I haven't invested in any new loans for a long time now, they just don't appear competitive to me. Therefore, all the remaining loans are troubled to some extent. 10 of the 14 are officially in Default state. Only 3 have a Capital Valuation of 100%, so my best guess at the moment is that only those 3 will repay in full. 4 have a Capital Valuation of 0%, so, presumably, they will eventually be written off. Does anyone know if AC have ever actually written a loan off, and how I could tell from my loan book if I have any that have been written off? The other 7 have Capital Valuations ranging from 21% to 97%. I'm still expecting to end up with a final XIRR of about 6.5%. I'm still investing in new loans, except those under 6% (with the exception of LP, 6% is my bottom line for p2p atm). if I'm doing it on KUF, I may as well do it on AC. I also sell them all (if trading is not suspended) 2 months before due date, this keeps me on a slightly safer side. About 4% of my loans are in default. Some of them are crystallised loss, some look likely to repay in full or with little loss to lenders, some in court... very difficult to predict what the real loss will be, but I'm hoping my current strategy won't get my XIRR to fall below 6%. I'm not watching very closely, there were some loans declared as crystallised loss in updates, but I'm not sure if that's the same as "written off". There's no clarity in AC's info display in this respect. They should add "written off" section on "market place" page. BM had "write off" section, why can't AC? It's good to be at the worst possible XIRR=1.6%  I had this feeling with FC few years ago. When I sold out whatever was sellable my displayed "annualised return" was 1.7%, now 3.2% (XIRR 4.04%).
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Post by df on Jun 13, 2022 18:48:40 GMT
The XIRR figures before capital losses are surprisingly high looking at the spread of interest rates of the remaining active loans, there is a barely a loan over 9% and not surpisingly all are suspended. You must have been selective with your loan picking. Or have their rates come down that much ? You'd be strugging now to achieve an XIRR of 6% before capital losses. Yes, you're quite right. I was very selective. Because I used to try to do detailed DD on the loans, and there were soooo many, I only really bothered with those over 7.5%. I ended up with a large amount in the diamond loan, which was always my favourite and paid something like 12%. I also made extra profit from SM trading, and a small amount from the many cashback incentives. I've been lucky on AC when rates were much higher, but am still likely to end up with only around 6.5%. I'm really surprised how low the rates are now. I got an email today for a loan at 5% with a 75% LTV. I didn't bother to look at it since I've decided to withdraw, so perhaps there's something that makes it particularly safe, but on the face of it it looks to be too low to me. I didn't look at this one, but had a quick look at some of them recently - couldn't find any "extra safety" features that justify 5%.
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blender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,719
Likes: 4,272
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Post by blender on Jun 13, 2022 18:55:11 GMT
They offer 5% because at present they can get away with it. But they know that 5% does not match the risk.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,315
Likes: 11,523
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Post by ilmoro on Jun 13, 2022 19:32:57 GMT
How many of your 14 loans do you think are likely to repay? I'm in nearly 400 loans. My XIRR tends to go up slightly every time I check, currently 6.56%. My portfolio is 1.2% in Green, 2.8% in Great MK1, 3.8 in 30D and 4.1 in QAA - the rest is in MLA. I use AAs for topping up MLA when needed, so I don't deposit any new money to AC (last deposit I've made was in January 2020). The total amount on the platform is 25% of what it used to be few years ago, I'm now approaching that point when my profit will be equal to the amount on the platform. It's a good feeling when total profits exceed remaining capital. If my remaining outstanding capital was all written off today my XIRR would be 1.06% 🤔. I haven't invested in any new loans for a long time now, they just don't appear competitive to me. Therefore, all the remaining loans are troubled to some extent. 10 of the 14 are officially in Default state. Only 3 have a Capital Valuation of 100%, so my best guess at the moment is that only those 3 will repay in full. 4 have a Capital Valuation of 0%, so, presumably, they will eventually be written off. Does anyone know if AC have ever actually written a loan off, and how I could tell from my loan book if I have any that have been written off? The other 7 have Capital Valuations ranging from 21% to 97%. I'm still expecting to end up with a final XIRR of about 6.5%. They have declared them as irrecoverable as per HMRC definition, they have declared some as having no further prospect of any recovery by any means, but they have never written one off to the extent it no longer appears in your invested total ... its become a long running joke that they keep promising the functionality but it never appears. Tagging chris just for fun
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bugs4me
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,845
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Post by bugs4me on Jun 13, 2022 21:30:44 GMT
They offer 5% because at present they can get away with it. But they know that 5% does not match the risk. Agreed - the sums are simple. Invest equally £100 in say 20 loans at 5%. Your outlay £2000 with £100 interest pa. If just one loan goes belly up, then once everyone has had their dabs on whatever may be recovered your return will be as close to zero on that loan - no capital or interest. So after all the fluffing you will be minus £5. Okay a simple sum but I would suggest the default rate even though AC are highly reluctant to declare defaults is higher than 1 in 20. And of course remember it's the hard earned lenders cash that's doing the funding but somehow AC always come up smelling of roses!!!
But you're dead right, they can get away with 5% but probably not from the more experienced P2P lenders - whether still active or 'semi-retired' from investing.
I'd be back but waiting for a transparent platform to emerge. I'll probably be waiting until hell freezes over.
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warn
Member of DD Central
Curmudgeon
Posts: 636
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Post by warn on Jun 14, 2022 16:51:26 GMT
They offer 5% because at present they can get away with it. But they know that 5% does not match the risk. I will still lend at 5% in my ISA MLA, but there are conditions. And any new loan that comes calling, if the lender interest is less than LTV/10, it doesn't get past the receptionist.
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??. Meanwhile my view is the bosses have their attentions turned elsewhere and whilst P2P was always a risk at 12% it was a calculated one. At 5% all it takes is one loan in 20 to go sour and your gains are more than wiped out. 
I had this feeling with FC few years ago. When I sold out whatever was sellable my displayed "annualised return" was 1.7%, now 3.2% (XIRR 4.04%).
