ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,315 
Likes: 11,523
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 12, 2023 22:55:41 GMT
Just realised that it's now only 6 left, I'll update the OP. 1223 repaid this month. They are: 791, 808, 824, 1116, 1122 and 1144. Looking at them. 791 earned me 14 months of interest + I got it @1% discount (quite a few loans at that time were distributed at discount) + earned from it in AAs  Funny how the same loan can be a gain for one and loss for another. I did well with 808 too. 824 - I don't expect any more than 10% back and that's probably over enthusiastic. 1116 is a crystallised loss. 1122 - the next update is due tomorrow. We'll see what is says (if it arrives), but I think the loss will be significant. 1144- no interest payments for 3 months usually ends up in capital loss. Ending with 6.5% is probably too optimistic if you judge by AC's "capital valuation", but the most important thing is that you already have guaranteed gain. Hasnt 824 already returned more than 10% or do you mean a further 10%? 1116 - time will tell as there are still recoveries in play but its very messy due to the wider issues at play 1144 - saw the way the wind was blowing and made a timely exit with 2 years of interest. I expect to get out at a profit but cant see it being 6.5%
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,315
Likes: 11,523
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 12, 2023 22:58:59 GMT
Does this mean that they will finally be writing off defaulted loans? I still have about £25 showing for the farcical South Coast Plumber (other farcical loans are available), where any chance of further recovery ceased about 5 years ago. I doubt they will bother. They promised that functionality for longer than I can remember and never got round to it. Going to be kind of hard to shut down the platform if they havent written off all the loans  Then there is the question of the nanopence balances in the accounts ...
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Post by Ace on Jan 12, 2023 23:03:28 GMT
I doubt they will bother. They promised that functionality for longer than I can remember and never got round to it. Going to be kind of hard to shut down the platform if they havent written off all the loans Then there is the question of the nanopence balances in the accounts ... They could just declare that no further recoveries are possible without bothering to sort the platform out, just a final tax statement.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,315
Likes: 11,523
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 12, 2023 23:13:54 GMT
Going to be kind of hard to shut down the platform if they havent written off all the loans Then there is the question of the nanopence balances in the accounts ... They could just declare that no further recoveries are possible without bothering to sort the platform out, just a final tax statement. Theyve done that already, the loans have been declared as losses but for some reason they seem to think they need specific permission from each lender to zero the outstanding amounts.
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Post by Ace on Jan 12, 2023 23:19:21 GMT
They could just declare that no further recoveries are possible without bothering to sort the platform out, just a final tax statement. Theyve done that already, the loans have been declared as losses but for some reason they seem to think they need specific permission from each lender to zero the outstanding amounts. Yes, I realise that they've done that on individual loan's. That's why I thought that they wouldn't bother to sort the platform out before closing it down. Just issue a final tax statement in 10 years or so, when they've verbally written the last one off.
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Post by df on Jan 13, 2023 13:12:07 GMT
Looking at them. 791 earned me 14 months of interest + I got it @1% discount (quite a few loans at that time were distributed at discount) + earned from it in AAs Funny how the same loan can be a gain for one and loss for another. I did well with 808 too. 824 - I don't expect any more than 10% back and that's probably over enthusiastic. 1116 is a crystallised loss. 1122 - the next update is due tomorrow. We'll see what is says (if it arrives), but I think the loss will be significant. 1144- no interest payments for 3 months usually ends up in capital loss. Ending with 6.5% is probably too optimistic if you judge by AC's "capital valuation", but the most important thing is that you already have guaranteed gain. Hasnt 824 already returned more than 10% or do you mean a further 10%? 1116 - time will tell as there are still recoveries in play but its very messy due to the wider issues at play 1144 - saw the way the wind was blowing and made a timely exit with 2 years of interest. I expect to get out at a profit but cant see it being 6.5% I meant a further 10%. I've exited 1144 in July 2022 with nearly 2 years and 9 months of interest. My XIRR is 6.62% atm, but I'm still in 181 loans (19 marked as default) in MLA and 4.2% of my investment is in Green&Great. Hard to predict the final outcome, but I will get out with profit of some sort.
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Post by Ace on Feb 12, 2023 12:21:20 GMT
I've added a monthly update to the table in the OP. Essentially, nothing happened.
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Post by Ace on Mar 12, 2023 22:29:19 GMT
I've added a monthly update to the table in the OP. Nothing happened, so XIRRs continue to fall.
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Post by Ace on Apr 12, 2023 21:43:21 GMT
I've added a monthly update to the table in the OP. Nothing to note.
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Post by dabeztstuff on Apr 13, 2023 7:58:13 GMT
Does anyone have an idea or estimate of expected losses from the Access Accounts? There are so many loans currently in default...  |
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Post by Ace on Apr 13, 2023 8:52:29 GMT
Does anyone have an idea or estimate of expected losses from the Access Accounts? There are so many loans currently in default... I only have a small sum invested in the AAs, so haven't bothered with any detailed number crunching. However my finger-in-the-air guess is that the total return will be something near 100% of the capital invested at the point of the wind down initiation. I.e. losses and fees will roughly cancel out any interest paid. I'd be surprised if less that 80% of capital was eventually returned. A more considered view might be able to be formed starting with the info in this erudite post.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,315
Likes: 11,523
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Post by ilmoro on Apr 13, 2023 9:59:31 GMT
The answer to that question depends on the provision funds ability to cover any losses. The current status of the Provision fund is unclear because
Assetz havent provided any information about the treatment of the provision funds for each individual AA now the three accounts have been merged
The provision fund figures havent been updated since 31 Oct
The impact of the lender fee deductions on future inflows into the PF
Situation in relation to future ringfencing for capital value discounts as AC will no longer be undertaking these in general (think still some regulatory requirements)
However, there is currently c£10.4m of default loans held by the AA
The provision fund at last report had a combined total of £7.25m available & ringfenced against distressed loans (NB that potentially includes provision against monitoring/capital discount loans not just defaulted)
Since Feb there has been £250k paid out.
The current level of lender fee means no inflows to the PF since 31 Jan
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Post by dabeztstuff on Apr 15, 2023 10:56:30 GMT
do you think the some/ all of the lender fee is going to the PF to cover losses?
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Post by Ace on Apr 15, 2023 11:13:05 GMT
do you think the some/ all of the lender fee is going to the PF to cover losses? No. AC state that the lender fee is to cover the costs of the wind down.
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rscal
Posts: 985
Likes: 537
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Post by rscal on Apr 17, 2023 16:26:30 GMT
[slightly off-topic, but close enough]
I notice the lender fee stops collecting on the standard* account - leaving a balance to be carried forward - once the ISA* account (if you have one) reaches zero for the month. It has happened for two months now. [And.. there is no attempt to stop interest payments for the GBBA2/PSA 'investment' accounts AFAICS]
*From the MLA, that is
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Funny how the same loan can be a gain for one and loss for another. I did well with 808 too.
Then there is the question of the nanopence balances in the accounts ...
