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Post by mitosan on Jan 18, 2015 19:53:43 GMT
Hi,
Sorry, I am new to this.
I started getting into P2P lending about three months ago and I was able to get some pretty decent rates on FC (expected returns of 8.6%). This month I am struggling though and not sure why, I can't seem to get any bids accepted where the expected return is over 8%, often much lower, and this has pulled my overall average down to 8.4% (I'm not sure how to get the average for the ones from just this month, but I suspect the expected return would be about 6.5-7%). Is it the case there there is less borrowing going on, so it basically becomes a 'borrowers market', is there a natural lull over the Christmas period that we are now just coming out of? Has anyone else noticed or is it something I am doing?
Kind regards.
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trevor
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Post by trevor on Jan 18, 2015 20:42:40 GMT
I have noticed the same. If I can't get 8% after expected bad debt and fees I don't invest. As a result they haven't had any of my cash since before Xmas. My personal theory is people with Xmas bonus to invest and fewer loans because of Xmas have led to the lower rates for lenders in the past few weeks. However I have kept my eye open and reckon that this weeks loans are looking more likely to be able give 8%. Stay patient I reckon and don't invest for the sake of it. You can get 6.1% on rate setter with virtually no risk so I'm not going to accept 7% with FC and more risk.
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debeast
(o)(o)
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Post by debeast on Jan 18, 2015 21:14:52 GMT
If you scroll back in the FC forums you'll see most people who have been in p2p for a while left FC and started to complain about lack of rates and opportunities Have a look around at others too i try to have some in most . Don't put all your eggs into 1 basket and don't put all your money into eggs /beastie
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 18, 2015 22:30:02 GMT
There's always a big drop off in the number of new loans available over the Christmas period, which in turn has a knock on effect to rates in the secondary market. Hopefully rates will rise in the next couple of weeks.
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Grezza
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Post by Grezza on Jan 18, 2015 23:12:07 GMT
Hi mitosan, I too started dipping toes in the P2P pond about 3 months ago, and have similar expected returns with FC, and will keep one eye on the auctions and SM opportunities, hoping returns will improve over the next few weeks /months ! I also started diversifying across other P2P platforms (RS/SS/W/AC) as well as within each one. I made a few mistakes with my first small dabblings as I learnt how each one worked, I wish I'd read all the threads/posts on here first! Excellent source of information, I agree, Easter egg! Btw, my main mistake was rushing to invest the capital, and so although invested in 350+ different businesses on FC, my first loan part acquired is 3% of my Total Lent, a little higher than I would have liked, so my advice is take time in building up the portfolio!! Loan parts at net 8%+ a possibility soon? Mmmm not sure, maybe on 10079 if you fancy it!
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 19, 2015 15:17:24 GMT
There's always a big drop off in the number of new loans available over the Christmas period, which in turn has a knock on effect to rates in the secondary market. Hopefully rates will rise in the next couple of weeks. Yep, as discussed in other threads (and on the FC forum too, IIRC) the two Xmas weeks were each about 1/4 of the borrower requests of the peak November months, while repayments continue to arrive (and new capital) resulting in a big bulge of money chasing few opportunities. Same happened last year - a month later FC were offering cashback to attract new lenders. Just leave your hands in your pockets and waitabit (to quote EF Russell). You can have an A+ at 6%-ish now, or probably one at 8 or 9% in a few weeks time - you pick. Meantime the Ratesetter monthly market is at 3%, so that's a reasonable parking lot.
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is
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Post by is on Jan 19, 2015 15:44:04 GMT
There's always a big drop off in the number of new loans available over the Christmas period, which in turn has a knock on effect to rates in the secondary market. Hopefully rates will rise in the next couple of weeks. Yep, as discussed in other threads (and on the FC forum too, IIRC) the two Xmas weeks were each about 1/4 of the borrower requests of the peak November months, while repayments continue to arrive (and new capital) resulting in a big bulge of money chasing few opportunities. Same happened last year - a month later FC were offering cashback to attract new lenders. Just leave your hands in your pockets and waitabit (to quote EF Russell). You can have an A+ at 6%-ish now, or probably one at 8 or 9% in a few weeks time - you pick. Meantime the Ratesetter monthly market is at 3%, so that's a reasonable parking lot. I prefer AC's 10% + security myself... Moved a six figure sum over already, but may be back if rates go up.
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Post by nightmare on Jan 19, 2015 16:09:51 GMT
I initially put the problem of low rates down to the Christmas break but there is a far bigger issue in the shape of a new user who is putting massive amounts of relatively high value bids in at quite low rates early on in the life of an auction which immediately drops the rate down. She normally comes in at a net 8.5 rate and can put anything from £20k up to over £40k in blocks of either £200s or £400s. I'm not even sure what her strategy is, if she's a trader then the amounts seem fairly high for 'selling on' but if not then why isn't she putting in bids of £2000. The other thing is, I don't think she comes back in when her bids are undercut instead she just moves on to the next auction and kills the rate on that and so on. The 'T' man has always been a bit of an annoyance but the 'G' woman is becoming a real problem.
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is
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Post by is on Jan 19, 2015 16:14:24 GMT
I initially put the problem of low rates down to the Christmas break but there is a far bigger issue in the shape of a new user who is putting massive amounts of relatively high value bids in at quite low rates early on in the life of an auction which immediately drops the rate down. She normally comes in at a net 8.5 rate and can put anything from £20k up to over £40k in blocks of either £200s or £400s. I'm not even sure what her strategy is, if she's a trader then the amounts seem fairly high for 'selling on' but if not then why isn't she putting in bids of £2000. The other thing is, I don't think she comes back in when her bids are undercut instead she just moves on to the next auction and kills the rate on that and so on. The 'T' man has always been a bit of an annoyance but the 'G' woman is becoming a real problem. Probably a long-only investment fund, given what you describe. The amount is OK for resale though, given 1-2 month time horizon. Smaller amounts help liquidity if you ever need to get out.
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Post by davee39 on Jan 19, 2015 17:07:28 GMT
I initially put the problem of low rates down to the Christmas break but there is a far bigger issue in the shape of a new user who is putting massive amounts of relatively high value bids in at quite low rates early on in the life of an auction which immediately drops the rate down. She normally comes in at a net 8.5 rate and can put anything from £20k up to over £40k in blocks of either £200s or £400s. I'm not even sure what her strategy is, if she's a trader then the amounts seem fairly high for 'selling on' but if not then why isn't she putting in bids of £2000. The other thing is, I don't think she comes back in when her bids are undercut instead she just moves on to the next auction and kills the rate on that and so on. The 'T' man has always been a bit of an annoyance but the 'G' woman is becoming a real problem. Perhaps you would like all other bidders to be excluded so you are free to bid at 15% (You still wont get any loans accepted). Actually I would rather like people to stop outbidding me on ebay when I can get a nice car for 99p if I get a free run. FC is a market. People can bid what they like how they like using any strategy they like. Normal rules apply, richer people can bid more. those happy to accept lower rates win. Other homes for spare cash are available. As with all markets, when enough people go elsewhere the rates should rise. And if there is an influx of institutional cash lowering rates for some time then expectations need to be adjusted. There is huge growth potential in this business. The current £500k loan is just the start, although you will need to get used to seeing these at fixed rates like the property loans, I suspect fixed rate loans will become very significant over the next year.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2015 17:15:49 GMT
Ah you guys mean Gillian with her machine gun of money. Looking to invest tonnes of money though to be fair she works it down from 14.8% all the way. Given the volume she is buying then I hope whe wants it all. The other issue is that some of the investments are being bought 100% by one investor and we never get to see them. I assume Gillian is missing out on those and is picking up volume (and a high proportion of the auction) to compensate. It is all down to supply and demand. Right now too much money chasing too little borrowing. If you think this is bad wait to see what happens if/when you can house P2P in an ISA. I see ratesetter has moved up from 5.9% to 6.1% in the last couple of days, maybe this is the start of the turn
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Jan 19, 2015 17:30:12 GMT
My biggest grumble about Fractious Cobblers is that so many loans are not shown to "small" investors any more. This MUST decrease the quality of what we are offered; big boys are not going to choose inferior whole loans, are they? That, together with the unsecured nature of nearly all FC loans means I am even more grumpy than I was. Answer? Asset secured loans elsewhere, with equal or higher rates, in which I may place four figure sums in fewer loans, rather than two or three figure sums in lots of loans (and a lot more work for me).
Unsecured loans should fetch higher rates than secured loans, but often they don't. Now, I wonder why that is.
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spyrogyra
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Post by spyrogyra on Jan 19, 2015 19:56:38 GMT
My impression is that FC is cyclical - rates go up every 3-4 months, keep high for a month or so and then suddenly go down very quickly. I might be paranoid, but I think that these ups and downs could be driven by those that would benefit hugely from selling at high premium on the SM.
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Post by davee39 on Jan 19, 2015 20:52:57 GMT
Ah, so that's what the Ratesetter Manipulators do on their day off!
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wysiati
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Post by wysiati on Jan 19, 2015 23:00:34 GMT
big boys are not going to choose inferior whole loans, are they? That, together with the unsecured nature of nearly all FC loans means I am even more grumpy than I was. Answer? Asset secured loans elsewhere, with equal or higher rates, in which I may place four figure sums in fewer loans, rather than two or three figure sums in lots of loans (and a lot more work for me). Unsecured loans should fetch higher rates than secured loans, but often they don't. Now, I wonder why that is. That was the case - any whole loan appearing in auctions was due to a conscious rejection by the initial whole loans partner. The arrival of passive whole loan participants means that even less of what you and/or others might consider sloppy seconds is even going to make it to the general auctions.
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