adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,599
Likes: 5,020
|
Trump
Sept 2, 2024 7:39:39 GMT
Post by adrianc on Sept 2, 2024 7:39:39 GMT
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,943
Likes: 4,382
|
Trump
Sept 2, 2024 9:16:07 GMT
Post by agent69 on Sept 2, 2024 9:16:07 GMT
I'm amused at the "least popular VP of modern history" attack on Harris in that. I was going to say Dan Quale, but I think he was just thick, rather than unpopular.
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,422
Likes: 2,893
|
Trump
Sept 2, 2024 11:41:52 GMT
Post by michaelc on Sept 2, 2024 11:41:52 GMT
Good one this as it combines my favourite topic (the BBC) and Trump all in one. Go on, *read* the article... Y'never know, it might even answer the question. www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3rd1yzgl0qo.ampAs for Darren Grimes... Mmm. Skim read it. First small point is headlines are very important - this "I'm good a debating" coming at a time when we've barely heard her speak unscripted. More important, much more important, this is pure favouritism writing everything from the perspective of her, her team and other democrats. In my view it shouldn't happen in the press and yet in the UK at least papers are nakedly allowed to campaign for one party or the other (usually Tories). The BBC funded by taxation ought to be a lot more careful and not give in to most of its staff who probably think a lot like you do.
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,599
Likes: 5,020
|
Trump
Sept 2, 2024 12:00:22 GMT
Ace likes this
Post by adrianc on Sept 2, 2024 12:00:22 GMT
Skim read it. First small point is headlines are very important - this "I'm good a debating" coming at a time when we've barely heard her speak unscripted. "During a pivotal debate in the 2020 US presidential election, one candidate seemed to dominate the stage. They interrupted their rivals at strategic moments, sometimes speaking over them.They directly confronted an opponent, Joe Biden, generating headlines for days and had critics questioning whether they had breached some sort of unspoken political decorum.That candidate, however, wasn’t Donald Trump. It was Kamala Harris."... "Debates have played a major role in Ms Harris’s political career, from her run for California attorney general to her ascent to the vice-presidency. In watching four of her key debates back, it is clear that Ms Harris knows when to seize the spotlight, but also when to stand by as a rival administers a self-inflicted blow."You suggest it's nothing more than a puff-piece, yet... "Ms Harris will be hoping to utilise these instincts against the notoriously combative Trump. Her campaign will also want to dispel longstanding concerns about her political messaging skills that began with her failed run for the White House in 2020, and were only heightened by her fumbling some interviews in recent years. There is no room for error given how these events are defined by viral clips, so it is just as important for the Harris campaign that she avoids stumbling as it is for her to land a highlight-reel blow."Think of the context of the article. A week to the big televised debate between the two. We all know exactly what Trump's going to say and how he's going to say it. Content and delivery, both known-knowns. We can take a fair guess at Harris' content... another known-known. But the delivery - that's the big known-unknown. No great surprise the article is looking at that, surely?
|
|
|
Trump
Sept 2, 2024 12:34:45 GMT
Ace likes this
Post by bracknellboy on Sept 2, 2024 12:34:45 GMT
Skim read it. First small point is headlines are very important - this "I'm good a debating" coming at a time when we've barely heard her speak unscripted. More important, much more important, this is pure favouritism writing everything from the perspective of her, her team and other democrats. In my view it shouldn't happen in the press and yet in the UK at least papers are nakedly allowed to campaign for one party or the other (usually Tories). The BBC funded by taxation ought to be a lot more careful and not give in to most of its staff who probably think a lot like you do. on the first point: neither the headline nor the article is written in the first person. Second point: you are right that we've - the UK public - have barely heard her speak unscripted. But that has nothing to do with anything: this is about her prior record in debates, not what the British public may have heard. Indeed, surely its more pertinent for the fact that we've got little first hand evidence ourselves. Third point: "favouritism writing"? What? "Everything from the perspective of her/her team" Really? Unpacking that. With regard to the debate itself: it says nothing about whether she will do well in the debate with Trump. I mean even the HEADLINE says "Will her tactics work on Trump?": that is about as non-judgemental as you can get. The body of the article is about examples of how she did well in a number of previous critical debates, the tactics she used. Oh and wait, then later down the article we have: "But despite the breakthrough moment and subsequent surge in the polls, Ms Harris later struggled to articulate her own position on bussing. It only served to underscore the concerns with her messaging and ability to articulate a consistent policy position.
The episode was one of many messaging stumbles Ms Harris made that ultimately sank her first presidential bid. Her failure to articulate a consistent policy agenda was one of the most common reasons cited, and it is an issue she needs to clarify quickly at the debate when she will almost certainly be pressed on policy specifics.
Republicans have circulated clips of Ms Harris’ public remarks for years to ridicule her speaking style and cast her as inept. She has used verbose phrases when speaking off the cuff, and while a few turns of phrase have been embraced by her supporters, opponents have often criticised her for a lack of clarity.
In a recent CNN interview, her first since becoming the nominee, she gave an answer on climate change which illustrated the issue. “It is an urgent matter to which we should apply metrics that include holding ourselves to deadlines around time,” Ms Harris said."And that's before the next 1/3 of the article that talks about how things could go off the rails for her when debating Trump. Which bit of this was written by her or her staffers ? In what way is this some biased reporting from biased staff that shouldn't be happening at the BBC ?
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,599
Likes: 5,020
|
Trump
Sept 2, 2024 12:52:29 GMT
Post by adrianc on Sept 2, 2024 12:52:29 GMT
In what way is this some biased reporting from biased staff that shouldn't be happening at the BBC ? It's not fawningly in favour of his orangeness.
|
|
|
Post by captainconfident on Sept 5, 2024 19:22:12 GMT
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,599
Likes: 5,020
|
Trump
Sept 6, 2024 7:54:42 GMT
Post by adrianc on Sept 6, 2024 7:54:42 GMT
He seems to have the root cause of the issue absolutely on the nose. Colin (any bets he goes by "Col"?) in Jaw-ja names his son "Colt", then buys the 13-14yo a military-grade weapon. Yeh, I think we can make some edumacated guesses as to various facets of the demographic. Because, obvs, there's never any anywhere else in the US at any other time... www.gunviolencearchive.org/
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,422
Likes: 2,893
|
Trump
Sept 6, 2024 12:06:20 GMT
Post by michaelc on Sept 6, 2024 12:06:20 GMT
Wohooo! Looks like he's opening up a bit of a gap in the betting exchanges. 1.95 to 2.14 now.
|
|
benaj
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,387
Likes: 1,692
|
Trump
Sept 6, 2024 12:19:44 GMT
via mobile
Post by benaj on Sept 6, 2024 12:19:44 GMT
Is it really big gap? too early to tell.
But if you like both to be winners, you can bet Harris to win the popular vote and male to be the president.
That’s could be a win-win, right?
But if Trump really be the president, he will be an unpopular president and who knows if there will be chaos after the election.
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,422
Likes: 2,893
|
Trump
Sept 6, 2024 12:27:55 GMT
Post by michaelc on Sept 6, 2024 12:27:55 GMT
Is it really big gap? too early to tell. But if you like both to be winners, you can bet Harris to win the popular vote and male to be the president. That’s could be a win-win, right? Not huge no but at the time Harris became the nominee for president Trump had a huge lead. Over a fair bit of time that lead got eroded and for a couple of weeks was even stevens. Over the past week or so Trump has opened up a lead which seems to be growing every day. None of the movements seem sudden as if there is momentum in one direction or the other and right now Trump seems to have the initiative. It would be good to see these odds over time but not sure if anyone archives them.
|
|
keitha
Member of DD Central
2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
Posts: 4,424
Likes: 2,545
|
Trump
Sept 6, 2024 17:48:21 GMT
Post by keitha on Sept 6, 2024 17:48:21 GMT
Is it really big gap? too early to tell. But if you like both to be winners, you can bet Harris to win the popular vote and male to be the president. That’s could be a win-win, right? Not huge no but at the time Harris became the nominee for president Trump had a huge lead. Over a fair bit of time that lead got eroded and for a couple of weeks was even stevens. Over the past week or so Trump has opened up a lead which seems to be growing every day. None of the movements seem sudden as if there is momentum in one direction or the other and right now Trump seems to have the initiative. It would be good to see these odds over time but not sure if anyone archives them. Election winner to lose popular vote 3.1 on betfair TBH I can't see democrats getting less votes than republicans, but I can see the republicans taking the necessary swing seats to take the caucus. Unfortunately I can see this ending badly whoever wins
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,599
Likes: 5,020
|
Trump
Sept 9, 2024 9:55:08 GMT
Post by adrianc on Sept 9, 2024 9:55:08 GMT
Is it really big gap? too early to tell. But if you like both to be winners, you can bet Harris to win the popular vote and male to be the president. That’s could be a win-win, right? Not huge no but at the time Harris became the nominee for president Trump had a huge lead. Over a fair bit of time that lead got eroded and for a couple of weeks was even stevens. Over the past week or so Trump has opened up a lead which seems to be growing every day. None of the movements seem sudden as if there is momentum in one direction or the other and right now Trump seems to have the initiative. It would be good to see these odds over time but not sure if anyone archives them. Betting, of course, is not how the election will be decided. All it means is that there's some people with money who think they've spotted a disparity between their perception of the likelihood of an outcome, and the bookmakers' perception of the same likelihood. The polls still show a +3% gap in favour of Harris, c.47/44, unmoved since Kennedy pulled out. It's been as high as 3.7%, but it's not been lower than 3.0% since the middle of last month. When Biden pulled out, Trump was 3% ahead, 43/40. Trump's numbers haven't changed, around 43/44%. The Democrats went from 40% to 47% on the change of nominee. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/biden-trump/That says to me that nobody is undecided on Trump. The indecision is between voting Democrat or not voting. The coverage of tomorrow night's Harris-Trump debate will be interesting.
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,422
Likes: 2,893
|
Post by michaelc on Sept 9, 2024 11:27:25 GMT
Not huge no but at the time Harris became the nominee for president Trump had a huge lead. Over a fair bit of time that lead got eroded and for a couple of weeks was even stevens. Over the past week or so Trump has opened up a lead which seems to be growing every day. None of the movements seem sudden as if there is momentum in one direction or the other and right now Trump seems to have the initiative. It would be good to see these odds over time but not sure if anyone archives them. Betting, of course, is not how the election will be decided. All it means is that there's some people with money who think they've spotted a disparity between their perception of the likelihood of an outcome, and the bookmakers' perception of the same likelihood. The polls still show a +3% gap in favour of Harris, c.47/44, unmoved since Kennedy pulled out. It's been as high as 3.7%, but it's not been lower than 3.0% since the middle of last month. When Biden pulled out, Trump was 3% ahead, 43/40. Trump's numbers haven't changed, around 43/44%. The Democrats went from 40% to 47% on the change of nominee. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/biden-trump/That says to me that nobody is undecided on Trump. The indecision is between voting Democrat or not voting. The coverage of tomorrow night's Harris-Trump debate will be interesting. In the same wy as companies' values are determined by betting/investing on the share price, you will find the betting exchanges give the most likely instantaneous picture of the race.
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,599
Likes: 5,020
|
Trump
Sept 9, 2024 12:10:33 GMT
Post by adrianc on Sept 9, 2024 12:10:33 GMT
Betting, of course, is not how the election will be decided. All it means is that there's some people with money who think they've spotted a disparity between their perception of the likelihood of an outcome, and the bookmakers' perception of the same likelihood. The polls still show a +3% gap in favour of Harris, c.47/44, unmoved since Kennedy pulled out. It's been as high as 3.7%, but it's not been lower than 3.0% since the middle of last month. When Biden pulled out, Trump was 3% ahead, 43/40. Trump's numbers haven't changed, around 43/44%. The Democrats went from 40% to 47% on the change of nominee. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/biden-trump/That says to me that nobody is undecided on Trump. The indecision is between voting Democrat or not voting. The coverage of tomorrow night's Harris-Trump debate will be interesting. In the same wy as companies' values are determined by betting/investing on the share price, you will find the betting exchanges give the most likely instantaneous picture of the race. Are horse race outcomes determined by the betting? Or football matches? (Well, yeh, OK, but outside of fixing...)If I thought a victory for one side more likely than the bookies did, I might bet on it - while actively supporting the other.
|
|