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Post by valueinvestor123 on Feb 12, 2015 13:29:17 GMT
Currently there is clearly a oversupply of money looking to lend and an undersupply of loans so liquidity should be fairly good (which it is, most of the time). So either the rates will have to come down or the supply imbalance will have to change somehow. I can however foresee that this equilibrium will not always stay like this and one day, it might tip the other way so that there might very easily come a liquidity crunch and money stuck in dysfunctional p2p accounts and no way to exit. So waiting till loan maturity will be the only way to get the money out. However if on top of that there will be disproportionately high number of defaults, a lot of p2p websites might close down so waiting till maturity might not even be an option... It would be interesting to know which platforms would be able to cope best in such a scenario or similar. I presume that the ones which are considered to have the best liquidity currently (such as SS and AC etc) might be worst affected? Although I am not sure. It's hard to predict the domino effects. Anyone thought about it? It's just having been through Icesave disaster etc...
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bigfoot12
Member of DD Central
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Post by bigfoot12 on Feb 12, 2015 14:23:24 GMT
I think that there is a reasonable chance of a serious liquidity crunch at some point too. It is probably then that people start to read the detailed terms and conditions. The exact way that provision funds work will have a big impact. Also those that are expensive to exit such as Wellesley and Ratesetter might fair better. I agree that a platform such as AC might be worst, however they have underwriters and institutional money which might help.
I would take issue with a couple of your points. I am not sure there is an oversupply at this minute in time. Rates are creeping up on a couple of the platforms I look at and there have been a few cash back offers. I think that Osborn's theft from future generations to bribe the 65+ crowd (NS bonds) is having an impact along with the seasonal rush to ISA, SIPP and VCTs. If one of the more established companies (front page of this forum or Zopa) failed I'd expect difficult times at most of the others. I am very worried about the number of people on this forum who seem to be relying on liquidity.
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