tonyr
Member of DD Central
Posts: 477
Likes: 258
|
Post by tonyr on Feb 20, 2015 22:56:37 GMT
I think that is true for all of us for many loans. It is true that some loans have some interest withheld at draw down, but many are accruing the next payment. It might not arrive. In most cases it probably will. I think that the weighted average for the plumbers should be zero, but apart from that I'm not sure what else they can do. We could supply two XIRR numbers that lenders can choose to include on the dashboard. One including accruals to date and one excluding it, which I think would give a over estimate of true XIRR and an underestimate. I'm not a financial analysis type person though so there may be better ideas out there. I know Stuart has some XIRR thoughts / plans that he'll brief me on once the fund raise is settled. Now this is why people should join AC and not FC. In FC land there was an independent forum and we had a good debate as to what numbers should be calculated and how FC were overestimating rates of return. It was analytic/scientific/critical - okay not every will ever agree but it was a good space to debate and much was done. There were many analytic/scientific/critical debates, which naturally were not all complementarity to the FC marketing image and in due course FC closed the forum down. I'm, sure I wasn't the only person who was very keen on FC when they started but viewed this as a nail in the coffin. In huge contrast we have chris contributing to an open independent forum and openly saying that there's no good solution but we can quite easily calculate an upper and lower bound so why not give everyone the option (I'd go for both :-). Thank you Chris and AC - you are doing great - please keep the openness for as long as you can.
|
|
mikes1531
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,453
Likes: 2,320
|
Post by mikes1531 on Feb 21, 2015 4:43:07 GMT
What is missing is the ability to prevent the autoinvest consuming all available cash with loan parts that have been available for while and leave a little bit for shrapnel. tonyr: Can't you simply disable AutoInvest for the loans that you don't want it to buy any more of for you? Or alternatively, why not just set your targets for those loans at your current level of holding?
|
|
|
Post by stuartassetzcapital on Feb 21, 2015 11:49:08 GMT
We could supply two XIRR numbers that lenders can choose to include on the dashboard. One including accruals to date and one excluding it, which I think would give a over estimate of true XIRR and an underestimate. I'm not a financial analysis type person though so there may be better ideas out there. I know Stuart has some XIRR thoughts / plans that he'll brief me on once the fund raise is settled. XIRR with and without accruals would be brilliant. My spreadsheet defaults to without, but I do occaisonally manually add back the accrued figure to see the potential upside. I have significant stakes in the deferred interest loans on here (e.g. Wrexham Dev), TC, and W&Co to defer tax liability until post retirement which the without figure obviously ignores. Although, as per previous comments, until the unusually large pool of drastically overdue bridges is resolved the with accruals figure is almost certainly an over estimate for many lenders. Yes "XIRR with and without accruals" would be perfect chris. Over any period of time.
|
|
tonyr
Member of DD Central
Posts: 477
Likes: 258
|
Post by tonyr on Feb 21, 2015 16:35:09 GMT
What is missing is the ability to prevent the autoinvest consuming all available cash with loan parts that have been available for while and leave a little bit for shrapnel. tonyr: Can't you simply disable AutoInvest for the loans that you don't want it to buy any more of for you? Or alternatively, why not just set your targets for those loans at your current level of holding? I want to achieve more than this. Let's split all loans into two sorts, those that have units available and those that don't. Let's say that I always want to keep £200 for shrapnel, that is loans that don't normally have units available but come up occasionally. I want the rest of my money to be invested in the loans that have units available (that have also passed my sniff test) - specifically I invest in the loan that'd got the least units available. Let's say I get a loan repayment or I put more money into AC. If subsequent amount of cash uninvested is less than £200 I don't want to do anything, if it's more then I want to buy something (right now Aberdeenshire WT) until there is £200 left. Actually I'd like to do a lot more than this, I'd like to balance the whole portfolio for maximum liquidity, that is being able to sell every last unit in the shortest possible time. That's quite a hard problem - but the sort of thing I enjoy.
|
|
j
Member of DD Central
Penguins are very misunderstood!
Posts: 2,188
Likes: 540
|
Post by j on Feb 21, 2015 17:32:40 GMT
I do like your suggestions tonyr but wonder if they're too complicated to action onto the platform. I do hope they're eventually added as they would be very useful & practical for those of us who'd like to be a bit more in depth. Keep coming with further suggestions7hopefully some will be implemented.
|
|
|
Post by stuartassetzcapital on Feb 21, 2015 18:32:31 GMT
I like tonyr 's liquidity target strategy, holding loans that have few loan parts available as that implies those people want the most and therefore he could get out of quickest if you want the money back. When we're strategising about giving different types of investors what they want and making sure it does what it says on the tin as best as possible one of the points is liquidity. Liquidity is worth something, worth a lot in my view and also lowers the interest rate. That's why short term savings accounts pay less than long term ones. We will bias towards pricing liquid investments lower than less liquid ones whilst still pricing for risk as well. Short term trade finance can pay a high rate per month but often has has less than ideal security so is priced high for that reason. Well structured invoice finance with a provision fund and a natural short term nature makes it liquid and safer and therefore a lower rate. Other things sit in the middle. Many people on this thread have high dashboard rates because of the 18% default interest rates on a few bridges and thats the nature of the bridging market where things don't go exactly to plan on average and the rates are higher and the problems to solve are greater but you have good first charge security to back it up. Two of those bridges probably repay this week I hear and that I think that includes the default interest which will be nice to show lenders - don't know if I am in those two but quite possibly hence contributing to my 14.92% average.
|
|
|
Post by GSV3MIaC on Feb 21, 2015 18:51:55 GMT
Actually I'd like to do a lot more than this, I'd like to balance the whole portfolio for maximum liquidity, that is being able to sell every last unit in the shortest possible time. That's quite a hard problem - but the sort of thing I enjoy. Yep, all you/we need is that API, and some AI programming (and possibly some time to collect data on what works and what doesn't). [Oh, and a lot of time to do the development. 8>.]
|
|
|
Post by oldnick on Feb 21, 2015 19:46:50 GMT
Hope I'm not too late to the party? Finding myself deficient in plumbing, and possessing plenty of wind, I can only boast 11.04%. Sign of my age probably.
|
|
j
Member of DD Central
Penguins are very misunderstood!
Posts: 2,188
Likes: 540
|
Post by j on Feb 21, 2015 20:52:09 GMT
Hope I'm not too late to the party? Finding myself deficient in plumbing, and possessing plenty of wind, I can only boast 11.04%. Sign of my age probably. Can I swap you some of my defunct plumbing for your excessive wind?
|
|
|
Post by oldnick on Feb 21, 2015 21:39:24 GMT
Hope I'm not too late to the party? Finding myself deficient in plumbing, and possessing plenty of wind, I can only boast 11.04%. Sign of my age probably. Can I swap you some of my defunct plumbing for your excessive wind? The trouble with defunct plumbing is that just when you think its going to perform you're disappointed. I'll stick with wind if you don't mind - it rarely fails to perform. :-)
|
|
mikes1531
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,453
Likes: 2,320
|
Post by mikes1531 on Feb 21, 2015 21:59:12 GMT
Two of those bridges probably repay this week I hear and that I think that includes the default interest which will be nice to show lenders ... stuartassetzcapital: That's good news. But which two?
|
|
j
Member of DD Central
Penguins are very misunderstood!
Posts: 2,188
Likes: 540
|
Post by j on Feb 22, 2015 1:01:31 GMT
Can I swap you some of my defunct plumbing for your excessive wind? The trouble with defunct plumbing is that just when you think its going to perform you're disappointed. I'll stick with wind if you don't mind - it rarely fails to perform. :-) Your wind sweeping analysis takes my breath away....literally
|
|
tonyr
Member of DD Central
Posts: 477
Likes: 258
|
Post by tonyr on Feb 22, 2015 3:36:58 GMT
Actually I'd like to do a lot more than this, I'd like to balance the whole portfolio for maximum liquidity, that is being able to sell every last unit in the shortest possible time. That's quite a hard problem - but the sort of thing I enjoy. Yep, all you/we need is that API, and some AI programming (and possibly some time to collect data on what works and what doesn't). [Oh, and a lot of time to do the development. 8>.] Yup, spot on. I really wasn't suggesting that AC put this on the web site (they need to fix up the GEIA algorithm before doing anything else in this area). What I like about the API is that it allows AC to outsource the building of different sorts of accounts to people who have the experience. I can imagine: * a smallish funds "instant access" account which would replace the standard deposit account. Here the emphasis is on liquidity and preservation of funds. * a largish funds SIPP account that is long term, it may have a safe/risky options to suit peoples risk/reward preferences * a guaranteed income account - something like the GEIA but no cap on maximum income (and working!) I don't think AC has the time to work on these right now so publishing the API and letting others do the work means that AC can bring these sort of accounts to their platform sooner and grow faster.
|
|
|
Post by chielamangus on Feb 22, 2015 12:42:02 GMT
As some have remarked here, the interest rate return given by AC is not very useful. It merely shows the weighted average interest rate of one's current holding. It does not indicate the actual return one has got over a period of time or what one will get in the future (unless one's pattern of holdings remains exactly the same AND there are no defaults). I have turned mine off in the customisable dashboard since it is irrelevant. However, in the light of the very high returns being quoted in this thread I've just looked it up - 10.85 per cent. Low in comparison with others here, but reflects my switch out of loans going into default mode*. My real return (XIRR) in the year 2014 was in the region of 9.75 per cent (excludes accruing interest).
*I have enough heart-stopping helter-skelter times on FC. At my age, I prefer AC's more secure enviroment & higher net returns. But it takes an age to run down one's holding with the FireCrackers!
|
|
star dust
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,998
Likes: 3,531
|
Post by star dust on Feb 22, 2015 17:53:03 GMT
The Dashboard says 11.30%, no furniture, no plumbers, no frozen bridges (anymore), just a couple of paused ones. It was around 11.5%, but I rejigged my holdings recently, and still have 4% uninvested waiting for the shrapnel to gain weight. I think that you are right - you need some small percentage uninvested to pick up the shrapnel. I must say that I made a few mistakes with the "new" (Autumn 2014) website and I wasn't happy at first, but now it feels very comfortable. What is missing is the ability to prevent the autoinvest consuming all available cash with loan parts that have been available for while and leave a little bit for shrapnel. I really hope the API gets published soon. I'm sure there are many people out there with a background in Financial Engineering who'll come up with really good algorithms for this. I'm certainly chomping a the bit and I'll put all my savings and pension behind whatever I write. Having made the calculation for this post I decided that 4% was too much for shrapnel, and rather than spend a week or more moving money out and back into AC I decided to 'park' around 2/3rds of it in the GEIA. The GEIA made its usual bizarre purchase and sale dance, but all is now invested, and I just hope that when my remaining third has been consumed by shrapnel I'll be able to liquidate the GEIA (this worked fine last time after chris's unplugging of it, so fingers crossed). Yes, roll on the big switch off button, or is it going to be the preferential ranking button, whichever, I do hope it's nearer the top of the 'to do' list now. Well I hope all you API/AI whizz kids will share some codes with the rest of us if it gets that far, have AC indicated willing?
|
|