sl75
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Post by sl75 on May 14, 2015 11:04:09 GMT
It's not stopped, just on an extreme go slow. I put a batch up about a week ago and have sold 2 x £20 parts from over 1000. ... Are you sure that was Autobid? Perhaps a philanthropist? I have sold two parts at par since 15 April, both in 12316. Are yours 12316? For me, within the last week, I've sold the following (all at par) 1 x £80 from 9971 (Brighton) 1 x £20 from 10812 (Northampton) 1 x £60 from 12360 (North London) 1 x £20 from 11411 (Ealing) Also 2 non-property loans, both 'B' and showing as 8.8% in the sales ledger (but possibly 8.9% in reality, as the property loans are all understated by 0.1%). 1 x £16 from 5869 1 x £329 from 5412 In total that's over £500 of sales at par. Clearly I have no way to tell for certain which were to autobid users, and which (if any) to manual buyers. Whilst £500 is a fairly slow week by historical standards (including days with no sales at all), and the preceding week was even slower (albeit more loan parts, but mostly small ones offered at a premium), it has by no means ground to a complete halt. I think the effects being observed are primarily down to market effects as a result of the unprecedented number of very large loans going through the system. Total sales across the entire secondary market remain at around £100k a day, which is a tiny fraction of the value of new loans. The real question is whether this surge was a short-term surge (so that there'll be a "rest" period during which secondary demand will pick up), or the start of a continuous pipeline of similar loans so that having "only" half a dozen loans in the £400k+ range at a time will begin to seem like a slow week...?! ... and if there is a continuous pipeline of loan applications, can FC generate a similar continuous pipeline of cash to match it?
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mv
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Post by mv on May 14, 2015 11:24:11 GMT
I think the effects being observed are primarily down to market effects as a result of the unprecedented number of very large loans going through the system. Total sales across the entire secondary market remain at around £100k a day, which is a tiny fraction of the value of new loans. The real question is whether this surge was a short-term surge (so that there'll be a "rest" period during which secondary demand will pick up), or the start of a continuous pipeline of similar loans so that having "only" half a dozen loans in the £400k+ range at a time will begin to seem like a slow week...?! ... and if there is a continuous pipeline of loan applications, can FC generate a similar continuous pipeline of cash to match it? Interesting point. Is it possible that the sheer volume of 2% CB loans in the past 3 months, combined with an increased number of propery flippers, plus a greater awareness of new investors that autobid is  , means that there are simply huge volumes of property parts on the SM, hence the slow rate of sales? It would be nice for FC to confirm either way.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on May 14, 2015 11:25:21 GMT
Just shy of £30k still needed with 35 minutes remaining. No sign of FC riding to the rescue yet either, although I didn't expect they would for a first tranche. 12707 has ended but I don't see details of the loan anywhere on the FC site. Is it just me, or is anyone else not finding details of the loan. Interesting. It's not been drawn down yet or there would be hundreds of parts for sale on the SM. I didn't keep it in my Watchlist after it closed (and hadn't bid), and it's not in the FC Loan Book but I guess that only gets updated periodically. Wonder if discussions are underway with the Borrower about the viability of future tranches at that rate.
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fasty
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Post by fasty on May 14, 2015 11:54:03 GMT
Has this been confirmed ? I know nothing about the regulations... but would that not be very questionable behavior ? What I do know is that I'm now done with these property offerings until the SM situation changes. It's not stopped, just on an extreme go slow. I put a batch up about a week ago and have sold 2 x £20 parts from over 1000. Hardly worth the effort, so I'm down to 12mth term max for 2%cb (small amounts for diversity) or preferably shorter. Which is what everyone else is thinking and why yesterdays 8 monther flew out. Same here. Property loan parts selling on SM at about 5% of usual rate. So on that basis, I'm only buying parts I'm prepared to keep for the full term. At 8% with 2% cashback anything longer than 12 months is ruled out.
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coop
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Post by coop on May 14, 2015 11:58:37 GMT
I share a similar sentiment to all of the above; although I would stretch to 15 months; but only for £40-60; I'm prepared to put £100 in for 12 months and potentially a bit more for anything less.
Massively regretting dropping £500 in a property loan now SM slaes have shrivelled up.
However I think over time the heftier discounted parts on new loans will get bought and when the best discount available on said loans is .5 or .6% I would be prepared to sell at that; so hopefully will decrease my holding significantly in a few months time.
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mv
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Post by mv on May 14, 2015 12:32:43 GMT
That doesn't altogether explain the 15th April absolute drop off in sales, commented on more than once. Prior to that date I had fluctuating daily 'at par' sales from a handful up to 30ish, most at £20, a couple at £40. In the last two weeks of April I had (without checking) about 6 sales in total. If there was just an over supply of property bits I would expect it to come on gradually over the course of a few weeks, not 24-48hrs. Fair point
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on May 14, 2015 12:48:12 GMT
12647 and 12674, both of which were 8%+2%CB 12 month property loans, currently have parts available at 9.7% which is a whopping 1.6% discount. Adding the 0.25% sale charge, that leaves 0.15% profit (or 6p on a £40 part). Barely seems worth the effort of buying it in the first place, although I suspect Autobid's new-found reluctance to pick up property loan-parts is at the root of it.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on May 14, 2015 13:17:52 GMT
That doesn't altogether explain the 15th April absolute drop off in sales, commented on more than once. Prior to that date I had fluctuating daily 'at par' sales from a handful up to 30ish, most at £20, a couple at £40. In the last two weeks of April I had (without checking) about 6 sales in total. If there was just an over supply of property bits I would expect it to come on gradually over the course of a few weeks, not 24-48hrs. Fair point Could it be explained by... New loan demand plus secondary market depth, and funds supply broadly in balance, then Relative over supply of new loans, particularly property loans with a cashback Expectation of lenders in the primary market that they can flip parts in the secondary market. Overall relative reduction in willing funds available for investment in either market. Auto-bid only working at par. In other words the property parts at par secondary market won't be back until either new loan demand shrinks or more willing funds become available. I know I never buy property loan parts in the secondary market, particularly at par (but then if they weren't at par auto-bid wouldn't bite). Why should I when I can be pretty confident that I'll be able to get a piece of a new loan with a cashback in a day or two?
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min
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Post by min on May 14, 2015 13:22:51 GMT
Just shy of £30k still needed with 35 minutes remaining. No sign of FC riding to the rescue yet either, although I didn't expect they would for a first tranche. 12707 has ended but I don't see details of the loan anywhere on the FC site. Is it just me, or is anyone else not finding details of the loan. Says pre-agreement so suspect Flying Carrots forget to do the paperwork in advance of it ending.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on May 14, 2015 13:52:49 GMT
That doesn't altogether explain the 15th April absolute drop off in sales, commented on more than once. Prior to that date I had fluctuating daily 'at par' sales from a handful up to 30ish, most at £20, a couple at £40. In the last two weeks of April I had (without checking) about 6 sales in total. If there was just an over supply of property bits I would expect it to come on gradually over the course of a few weeks, not 24-48hrs. 15 April was when my own sales transitioned from being mainly "at par" (loan parts including property loans at a low interest rate) to being mainly "at a premium" (for loan parts with a higher interest rate). This was mainly due to having a new supply of such loan parts. In particular, on that day, I sold two parts of 12149 (which had completed a short time previously) at modest premiums. This loan had been closely followed by 12170, and parts of both continue to dominate the secondary market - manual buyers and/or bots seeking an 'A' or better rated loan will almost certainly consider buying one of these before moving on to lower-yielding loan parts. This was followed by several further loans where I was not completely outbid, and so had parts to sell at a modest premium... and undoubtedly I wasn't alone in this - which gave even more options to manual and/or bot buyers, so that they would be more likely to leave the loan parts offered at par (and at rates higher than 8%) for the autobid users to pick up... and I get the impression that autobid now targets the highest-yielding loan part meeting its criteria (originally it targeted the largest loan part meeting its criteria). The underlying cause may have, in part, been a change of strategy from some of the dominant players who had previously bid heavily against each other the first few hours after a new loan went live causing even the larger loans to finish at low rates... or simply that they collectively no longer have enough free cash to dominate the new loans in this way. In particular there were comments on this forum over easter about the lack of bidding from certain well-observed users. Edit: I think there may have been some large-scale buying of 12149 / 12170 (and possibly others) today, as I just sold 2 parts of 12170 to the same person, and see that the best rate available has dropped from the 11.1% (0.7% premium) that I think I remember from earlier today to 10.8% (1% premium). I also think there are rather fewer parts of that loan (I see 419 parts of 12170 now, where I thought I remembered in excess of 600 earlier). So perhaps the market is in the process of turning...
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blender
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Post by blender on May 14, 2015 14:46:03 GMT
That doesn't altogether explain the 15th April absolute drop off in sales, commented on more than once. Prior to that date I had fluctuating daily 'at par' sales from a handful up to 30ish, most at £20, a couple at £40. In the last two weeks of April I had (without checking) about 6 sales in total. If there was just an over supply of property bits I would expect it to come on gradually over the course of a few weeks, not 24-48hrs. 15 April was when my own sales transitioned from being mainly "at par" (loan parts including property loans at a low interest rate) to being mainly "at a premium" (for loan parts with a higher interest rate). This was mainly due to having a new supply of such loan parts. In particular, on that day, I sold two parts of 12149 (which had completed a short time previously) at modest premiums. This loan had been closely followed by 12170, and parts of both continue to dominate the secondary market - manual buyers and/or bots seeking an 'A' or better rated loan will almost certainly consider buying one of these before moving on to lower-yielding loan parts. This was followed by several further loans where I was not completely outbid, and so had parts to sell at a modest premium... and undoubtedly I wasn't alone in this - which gave even more options to manual and/or bot buyers, so that they would be more likely to leave the loan parts offered at par (and at rates higher than 8%) for the autobid users to pick up... and I get the impression that autobid now targets the highest-yielding loan part meeting its criteria (originally it targeted the largest loan part meeting its criteria). The underlying cause may have, in part, been a change of strategy from some of the dominant players who had previously bid heavily against each other the first few hours after a new loan went live causing even the larger loans to finish at low rates... or simply that they collectively no longer have enough free cash to dominate the new loans in this way. In particular there were comments on this forum over easter about the lack of bidding from certain well-observed users. Edit: I think there may have been some large-scale buying of 12149 / 12170 (and possibly others) today, as I just sold 2 parts of 12170 to the same person, and see that the best rate available has dropped from the 11.1% (0.7% premium) that I think I remember from earlier today to 10.8% (1% premium). I also think there are rather fewer parts of that loan (I see 419 parts of 12170 now, where I thought I remembered in excess of 600 earlier). So perhaps the market is in the process of turning... This is slightly diversionary, sl75, since the discussion is about being unable to sell the cash back loans at par via Autobid, while 12149 and 12170 are 12% property loans which we would not wish to sell at par. It seems to be a fact that FC made some covert change to Autobid's behaviour on or about 15th April - that is a month ago - since which time Autobid has made little or no purchases of the cash back property loans at par on the secondary market. This was either some general change or something affecting particular loans or possibly even particular lenders. Nothing has been announced but the effect is indisputable and large - if imprecisely defined. When you say "and I get the impression that Autobid now targets the highest-yielding loan part meeting its criteria (originally it targeted the largest loan part meeting its criteria)" do you mean that you believe the Autobid is no longer limited to purchasing at par on the secondary market, and that a change to, for example, choosing the part with the highest buyer rate has been made? I can find no reference on the site to Autobid being limited to par purchases. Any reluctance by FC to spell out the precise nature of changes is understandable, but if some such change has been implemented we ought to have had some general notice - though I doubt anyone on this board uses Autobid - though that could change. So what are your thoughts on Autobid no longer being limited to par purchases on the SM, sl75?
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fasty
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Post by fasty on May 14, 2015 15:03:21 GMT
OK, as if on command :
12876: £300K, A+, 12 months, 8% fixed +2% splashback.
Fill yer boots if it appeals sufficently.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on May 14, 2015 15:11:41 GMT
This is slightly diversionary, sl75, since the discussion is about being unable to sell the cash back loans at par via Autobid, while 12149 and 12170 are 12% property loans which we would not wish to sell at par. They all occur on the same marketplace. With a large supply of 'A' rated loans at around 11% (albeit at a premium), manual buyers and/or buying bots may well choose these over loans at par and at rates between 8% and 11%. This leads to more of the loan parts at rates between 8% and 11% being available for autobid, so (based on the assumption they tweaked autobid some time ago to prefer the better-yielding parts when given a choice, which seems consistent with what I've seen during the last few months) property loans at par are more difficult to sell. It seems to be a fact that FC made some covert change to Autobid's behaviour on or about 15th April - that is a month ago - since which time Autobid has made little or no purchases of the cash back property loans at par on the secondary market. This was either some general change or something affecting particular loans or possibly even particular lenders. Nothing has been announced but the effect is indisputable and large - if imprecisely defined. The effect is indeed indisputable. The cause remains unknown, despite various conspiracy theories that assume it was a deliberate action by FC. When you say "and I get the impression that Autobid now targets the highest-yielding loan part meeting its criteria (originally it targeted the largest loan part meeting its criteria)" do you mean that you believe the Autobid is no longer limited to purchasing at par on the secondary market, and that a change to, for example, choosing the part with the highest buyer rate has been made? I can find no reference on the site to Autobid being limited to par purchases. Any reluctance by FC to spell out the precise nature of changes is understandable, but if some such change has been implemented we ought to have had some general notice - though I doubt anyone on this board uses Autobid - though that could change. So what are your thoughts on Autobid no longer being limited to par purchases on the SM, sl75? says "Autobid will only purchase loan parts from other investors which do not have any mark-up or mark-down applied by the selling investor." Suppose that a particular user's autobid is looking the buy parts up to £50, and has a number of loans to choose from including: - a £40 part of loan 1 at 8.0% - a £20 part of loan 2 at 10.0% Back when the market was less busy, I'd previously observed autobid buying a series of loan parts in strict decreasing order of price for a particular user, suggesting that it would have bought loan 1 first and loan 2 second (if it still had funds), as loan 1 was closest to its £50 target. It's possible that FC could have changed the behaviour so that it will buy the loan part with the better rate first (in this case loan 2). This would mean that, whenever there is an adequate supply of loan parts at par and at rates higher than 8.0%, that sales property loans at 8.0% would grind to a halt. Whether or not that is in fact the case is another matter....
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blender
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Post by blender on May 14, 2015 15:28:47 GMT
Thank you, sl75, for that reference which I missed. Clearly Autobid is still limited to par purchases or that would have been changed. It must be choosing differently.
No conspiracy theories - FC could not conspire with itself, it takes two, but certainly strong suggestions that something has been changed which has affected Autobid purchasing, and has not been announced.
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coop
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Post by coop on May 14, 2015 15:51:29 GMT
Have gone in for a bit of the latest offering but in curren market conditions even 8%+2%CB isn't that atttractive; only 9% PA if you can't shift it!
I'm going off these loans very fast but I'm struggling to find decent alternatives to invest in anywhere!
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, means that there are simply huge volumes of property parts on the SM, hence the slow rate of sales? It would be nice for FC to confirm either way.
