guff
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Post by guff on Nov 22, 2016 12:11:01 GMT
So they've pulled North Devon 14 after it filled 23% in four and a half days. How they thought they'd get that away at 8% (especially given the problems with other recent tranches) is beyond me. My breath is bated as to how this will come back - 10% or cash back (halving the amount as they did before isn't going to work)? … What about a third of the amount? It's a re-hash of the old divide and conquer routine… £340k for 18 months at 8% becomes £110k for 14 months at 8%.
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kt
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Post by kt on Nov 22, 2016 12:14:06 GMT
Do FC have anyone in the team with property experience? It does not appear that property loans are being valued internally.
With the 18 month duration and the possibility of a downturn in the market, would FC force a sale to repay investors?
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am
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Post by am on Nov 22, 2016 12:18:55 GMT
So they've pulled North Devon 14 after it filled 23% in four and a half days. How they thought they'd get that away at 8% (especially given the problems with other recent tranches) is beyond me. My breath is bated as to how this will come back - 10% or cash back (halving the amount as they did before isn't going to work)? Henley refinance is struggling at 9% as well (on Tranche 1) - that's going to be a very long haul for them without some further improvement in terms. It's back, but still at 8% , but with 1% cashback. We seem to back in the informal underwriting by flippers situation - selling the loan on the naive bots (and autobidders) with the cashback (partially) stripped. But I'm wondering how much SM demand there would be for this project. (391 loan parts currently on the SM, but only a few at par - most people are trying to at least cover the selling fee.)
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guff
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Post by guff on Nov 22, 2016 12:22:35 GMT
Where's the cashback? I can't see it.
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am
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Post by am on Nov 22, 2016 12:34:55 GMT
On the other hand yestersday's Didcot loan disappeared while I was reading the IR for the previous (Wincolmlee 3) loan. I guess the 17% LT(GD)V must have appealed.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Nov 22, 2016 13:51:47 GMT
Where's the cashback? I can't see it. Nor can I.
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am
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Post by am on Nov 22, 2016 14:34:48 GMT
Where's the cashback? I can't see it. Nor can I. Sorry - I must have been looking at the wrong tranche.
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metoo
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Post by metoo on Nov 22, 2016 19:02:20 GMT
Do FC have anyone in the team with property experience? It does not appear that property loans are being valued internally. With the 18 month duration and the possibility of a downturn in the market, would FC force a sale to repay investors? They have about 8 property specialists IIRC. See the 2016 FC Investor Evening video. The valuations are done by independent RICS surveyors. I'm sure FC wouldn't force a sale during the loan term, and would only go that route later if it looked the best way to maximise recovery. All the monthly interest payments are held by FC from the start of the loan. Looking at the video, whereas people seem to think FC would like to avoid a property default at all costs, it sounds like if the market collapsed they would be ready to accept some losses on property loans, but are making sure there is a spread of LTVs so that most loans would be able to repay in full. They have reduced the LTVs they will lend on and are avoiding the riskier London property loans.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 27, 2016 9:45:16 GMT
Anyone else think the primary market isn't clearing up very quickly? I had half-expected the drought to be upon us by now, but still 32 loans out there and many of them only 30% filled. Maybe the general FC population has decided to invest in Christmas presents instead, a wise choice!
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bg
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Post by bg on Dec 27, 2016 10:06:26 GMT
Anyone else think the primary market isn't clearing up very quickly? I had half-expected the drought to be upon us by now, but still 32 loans out there and many of them only 30% filled. Maybe the general FC population has decided to invest in Christmas presents instead, a wise choice! Well, I would imagine 95%+ of retail funds on FC are autobid. For bids to be made that requires new cash which primarily comes from two sources:- (1) new cash added to the website and (2) coupon payments on existing loans. (1) Its Christmas, I can't imagine many people transferring new money in on Xmas day, Boxing Day etc. They're doing other things. (2) The Xmas break has screwed payments up. I had 11 loans go processing overnight....that's ordinarily cash that (if I was autobid) would hit the PM. Once the processing backlog clears we should see a greater uptake of the new loans.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 27, 2016 10:16:16 GMT
That makes sense. I had remembered a famine last year, but looking back to at the 'down to 1' thread, it appears we actually went into Christmas with barely any loans available on the PM- and those that remained were "constipated" after Christmas day, which certainly seems to be the case now, especially for 30308 and 30310 which have only a day to go and are less than 50% filled.
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guff
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Post by guff on Dec 27, 2016 10:33:30 GMT
I tried to make a debit card transfer on Friday and it bombed. |
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Dec 27, 2016 11:21:15 GMT
Anyone else think the primary market isn't clearing up very quickly? I had half-expected the drought to be upon us by now, but still 32 loans out there and many of them only 30% filled. Maybe the general FC population has decided to invest in Christmas presents instead, a wise choice! Indeed - I was hoping it would empty to encourage punters to purchase some of my pre-loved loan parts on the SM. As it stands, I believe there's a risk that some of those new loans may not fill.
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Dec 27, 2016 17:31:32 GMT
Property loan 30210 (tranche 17 of a property loan) looks unlikely to fill in the next 5 minutes...
and daddy's on holiday, so who is going to prop it up, apply emergency splashback like the good 'ole days?
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guff
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Post by guff on Dec 27, 2016 17:39:48 GMT
About £3½k Short.
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