tonyr
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Post by tonyr on Mar 23, 2015 21:15:54 GMT
I'm the sort of person who wants to know how things work. So I'm pretty sure that the buy algorithm is fairly simple, if there are loan parts available then just work out the threshold so that everyone who wants under the threshold gets what they want and everyone who wants over it gets the threshold. The sell algorithm is more complex. From what I observe, if the amount for sale is less than £100 (or perhaps a few multiples of this amount) then the buy algorithm applies, else the underwriters algorithm kicks in which sells £100 parts randomly (i.e. of all the sellers, pick one proportionally to their holding in £100 blocks). chris, I know this is dear to your heart - am I right or can you educate me? Thanks, Tony
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Post by chris on Mar 23, 2015 22:49:43 GMT
For the buy algorithm - if there's less than £1 available per person wanting to invest then it's allocated randomly in £1 chunks. If it's more than £1 per person then it's as you describe.
For the sale algorithm it sorts the sellers into random order weighted by the amount they're looking to sell, so underwriters are likely to be at the front of the list but it could still be anyone. Each buyer is then matched in turn to the sellers in the list. 5 sellers and 5 buyers then all 5 sellers will sell something. If there's an excess of buyers then the list of sellers is randomised again the process repeated. There's also a chunking algorithm whereby if a buyer is buying a large amount then they can be split amongst multiple sellers.
This algorithm is mid-rewrite at the moment. The buyer algorithm will remain as is, I'm actually pretty happy with how it's working. For sellers they will be explicitly split so at a basic level 80% of the sale will go to underwriters and 20% to retail investors, with any excesses being allocated to the other pool. Within the underwriter pool sales will then be proportionately distributed. Within the retail pool we'll probably use the reverse of the buy algorithm but that's not yet been set in stone.
Whilst the sale algorithm isn't working too badly at the moment it's difficult for people to understand how it works in practice and it's fairly clumsy to rebalance the probabilities of different groups selling. This new system should be easier to explain and help ensure underwriters sell down whilst guaranteeing some measure of liquidity for retail sellers. We can always add other balances like varying the 80/20 split over time to make sure both groups are properly looked after.
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tonyr
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Post by tonyr on Mar 24, 2015 18:06:43 GMT
Thanks chris, I'm glad I asked. I like the rewrite of the sale algorithm, it should encourage underwriters to pass on more units and so increase the number of loans available to retail investors.
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on Apr 26, 2015 12:01:47 GMT
For the buy algorithm - if there's less than £1 available per person wanting to invest then it's allocated randomly in £1 chunks. If it's more than £1 per person then it's as you describe. For the sale algorithm it sorts the sellers into random order weighted by the amount they're looking to sell, so underwriters are likely to be at the front of the list but it could still be anyone. Each buyer is then matched in turn to the sellers in the list. 5 sellers and 5 buyers then all 5 sellers will sell something. If there's an excess of buyers then the list of sellers is randomised again the process repeated. There's also a chunking algorithm whereby if a buyer is buying a large amount then they can be split amongst multiple sellers. This algorithm is mid-rewrite at the moment. The buyer algorithm will remain as is, I'm actually pretty happy with how it's working. For sellers they will be explicitly split so at a basic level 80% of the sale will go to underwriters and 20% to retail investors, with any excesses being allocated to the other pool. Within the underwriter pool sales will then be proportionately distributed. Within the retail pool we'll probably use the reverse of the buy algorithm but that's not yet been set in stone. Whilst the sale algorithm isn't working too badly at the moment it's difficult for people to understand how it works in practice and it's fairly clumsy to rebalance the probabilities of different groups selling. This new system should be easier to explain and help ensure underwriters sell down whilst guaranteeing some measure of liquidity for retail sellers. We can always add other balances like varying the 80/20 split over time to make sure both groups are properly looked after. Is this the reason why some times if I sell say £100 of a loan, it shows up as up to 100 £1 units all sold at the same time stamp in my Manual Investment Account. I don't need to know this information. The MIA becomes very cluttered and difficult to follow. Perhaps this could be sorted out.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Apr 26, 2015 14:45:20 GMT
Is this the reason why some times if I sell say £100 of a loan, it shows up as up to 100 £1 units all sold at the same time stamp in my Manual Investment Account. I don't need to know this information. I use the info to give me an indication of the level of demand for individual loans. If I sell something and it goes in £1 chunks, then there's plenty of demand. If it goes in a small number of chunks it means that there are few investors interested in that loan -- or else other opportunities have used up all the available funds of investors who otherwise are interested. It's clearly not definitive, but it does provide some info.
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kermie
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Post by kermie on Apr 26, 2015 15:15:31 GMT
Is this the reason why some times if I sell say £100 of a loan, it shows up as up to 100 £1 units all sold at the same time stamp in my Manual Investment Account. I don't need to know this information. I use the info to give me an indication of the level of demand for individual loans. If I sell something and it goes in £1 chunks, then there's plenty of demand. If it goes in a small number of chunks it means that there are few investors interested in that loan -- or else other opportunities have used up all the available funds of investors who otherwise are interested. It's clearly not definitive, but it does provide some info. Ditto. A simple suggestion, albeit perhaps not the most intuitive: on the Available Units tab, how about indicating a negative figure if there is demand to buy the loan? Alternatively, put this information on a separate tab (which might be clearer), labelled "Demand". For a given loan, the "Demand" is just the sum over all lenders of the difference between target amount and amount held (including any cases where a lender has the target lower than the amount held - although in practice such cases are only present fleetingly until Auto-whatsit kicks in and sells). The combination of Available Units and Demand gives everyone a clear view of liquidity.
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on Apr 26, 2015 15:52:18 GMT
A simple suggestion, albeit perhaps not the most intuitive: on the Available Units tab, how about indicating a negative figure if there is demand to buy the loan? Alternatively, put this information on a separate tab (which might be clearer), labelled "Demand". For a given loan, the "Demand" is just the sum over all lenders of the difference between target amount and amount held (including any cases where a lender has the target lower than the amount held - although in practice such cases are only present fleetingly until Auto-whatsit kicks in and sells). The combination of Available Units and Demand gives everyone a clear view of liquidity. That would be far better than 100's of lines in the MIA.....if it is possible
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Apr 27, 2015 11:33:37 GMT
For a given loan, the "Demand" is just the sum over all lenders of the difference between target amount and amount held ... I'm not sure how meaningful that would be without some gauge of the amount of free cash available to buy parts if they were offered for sale. If I set my targets £100 above my holdings for the 60+ loans with no units available at the moment, it would look like £6+k of 'demand' existed. But if I have only £100 of cash available then that demand figure would be rather misleading. Because I haven't a clue which loans might become available to buy, I tend to do what I've described above, and I buy whichever loan parts come along first.. I'd guess that many other lenders operate in a similar manner.
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Post by chris on Apr 27, 2015 16:16:29 GMT
For a given loan, the "Demand" is just the sum over all lenders of the difference between target amount and amount held ... I'm not sure how meaningful that would be without some gauge of the amount of free cash available to buy parts if they were offered for sale. If I set my targets £100 above my holdings for the 60+ loans with no units available at the moment, it would look like £6+k of 'demand' existed. But if I have only £100 of cash available then that demand figure would be rather misleading. Because I haven't a clue which loans might become available to buy, I tend to do what I've described above, and I buy whichever loan parts come along first.. I'd guess that many other lenders operate in a similar manner. This is the case for most lenders, so the demand figure would be misleading at best. We've been toying with the idea of an "estimated time to sell" indicator based on historical data but aren't yet comfortable that it wouldn't end up being misleading. There's some other ideas flying around but it's not been prioritised as yet.
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kermie
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Post by kermie on Apr 27, 2015 17:36:18 GMT
Points noted and understood - I had considered them. chris, if are prepared to use historical data, then rather than second-guessing a "time to sell", I'd rather simply know the average volume traded over the last 7 days - that could just be updated once per day as part of the overnight batch processing on the DB. Then I could make my own judgement about how quickly I can sell. This would also prevent AC being the target of complain-nicks when they are unable to sell within the time-frame indicated.
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Post by chris on Apr 27, 2015 17:44:58 GMT
Points noted and understood - I had considered them. chris, if are prepared to use historical data, then rather than second-guessing a "time to sell", I'd rather simply know the average volume traded over the last 7 days - that could just be updated once per day as part of the overnight batch processing on the DB. Then I could make my own judgement about how quickly I can sell. This would also prevent AC being the target of complain-nicks when they are unable to sell within the time-frame indicated. Volume traded is more indicative of supply than demand for most loans, so not sure it would give you what you're looking for. Simple trades are also skewed by the diversification algorithms so we'd either need to filter out those or account for them in some way. I'm hoping I'll get a chance to finish the algorithmic refresh on that in the next couple of weeks which should reduce a lot of the shuffling that currently goes on but there's a more important project taking precedence at the moment. We could perhaps produce a graph showing volume of unsold loan units at the end of each day for a given loan alongside a chart showing volume traded. That'd give an idea of the supply side and how quickly it sold down when loan units were available.
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