blender
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Post by blender on Dec 20, 2015 11:30:56 GMT
A million moon orbits ago, around a relatively uninteresting planet, on a small sea-bound island on the edge of a large continent lay a very especially uninteresting country. Apart, perhaps, from its history. I started out my working life for one of those most unworthy of things called a bank. I had the right education, at the cusp of the end of the wrong end of the wrong business at the wrong period of history. At the time, and time being what it is (hah, go PV that!) the CIO of the business, exclaimed something along the lines of ".... we're a technology company that processes money....". >>Hint<< Eagle. >>Hint<< Horrible not quite right copper oxide blue. He was right. He was fired. Of course, when I recounted this story to the head of the Swaps desk, and turned his monitor off to fix his PC, the whole dam desk went down. Twenty plus traders earning thousands a day, because the rest of the world "needed" their services to manage fixed / floating, or perhaps floating / fixed, forced to go for a coffee. Ah well, them's the breaks. As much as the former CIO didn't allow me email!!!!!!!!, he was right about banks being tech companies that process money. If they weren't they wouldn't be subject to the disruption that they are. It seems to be that this forum, sadly, is now probably the most stimulating and enjoyable aspect of having an FC account. When reading the blender comments about tekkies a few posts above, it is perhaps necessary to know that a human associated with blender was once, say over 20 years ago, technical director of a division of a large communications company. The technology was the essence of everything it did, and the areas of vulnerability susceptible to mistakes by tekkies were huge. But never would anyone say that it was a technology company which processed communications. The same I imagine applies to corporations like Apple. It is interesting that maybe the banks did start working that way - the computer says no - and the technology and mathematics of financial trading became the drivers of the businesses rather than the boards and the regulators - who probably no longer understood it but of course could never say that and be credible, nor could they predict problems without causing them. Uniquely the banks failed - imploded. If FC thinks of itself as a technology company it may go the same way. Technology companies should stick to selling technological products and services.
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Dec 20, 2015 11:33:01 GMT
A million moon orbits ago, around a relatively uninteresting planet, on a small sea-bound island on the edge of a large continent lay a very especially uninteresting country. Apart, perhaps, from its history. I started out my working life for one of those most unworthy of things called a bank. I had the right education, at the cusp of the end of the wrong end of the wrong business at the wrong period of history. At the time, and time being what it is (hah, go PV that!) the CIO of the business, exclaimed something along the lines of ".... we're a technology company that processes money....". >>Hint<< Eagle. >>Hint<< Horrible not quite right copper oxide blue. He was right. He was fired. Of course, when I recounted this story to the head of the Swaps desk, and turned his monitor off to fix his PC, the whole dam desk went down. Twenty plus traders earning thousands a day, because the rest of the world "needed" their services to manage fixed / floating, or perhaps floating / fixed, forced to go for a coffee. Ah well, them's the breaks. As much as the former CIO didn't allow me email!!!!!!!!, he was right about banks being tech companies that process money. If they weren't they wouldn't be subject to the disruption that they are. Is this the prequel of War of the Worlds?
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jimbo
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Post by jimbo on Dec 23, 2015 1:01:37 GMT
In terms of the lending algorithms/quantitative analytics being used to make risk band and lending decisions on Funding Circle, here is a documentary about said Quants on Wall Street that will warm your soul. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ed2FWNWwE3IAt some point - possibly in the not too distant future - the risk model will be wrong! |
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Dec 24, 2015 8:36:17 GMT
SM sales seem to have picked up in the last two or three days. For me, no premium property loan sales are 50% higher in the last 7 days than the previous 7 days.
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acky
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Post by acky on Dec 24, 2015 8:56:49 GMT
SM sales seem to have picked up in the last two or three days. For me, no premium property loan sales are 50% higher in the last 7 days than the previous 7 days. For me, par property sales were more than double the normal run-rate yesterday and the day before, and Monday was above average. Prior to that they'd been below average for a few days.
Still plenty of loans on the PM, so there must be a lot of money sloshing around in Father Christmas's boots at the moment. I suppose there have been one or two early repayments, which would help.
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jayjay
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Post by jayjay on Dec 24, 2015 9:25:19 GMT
SM sales seem to have picked up in the last two or three days. For me, no premium property loan sales are 50% higher in the last 7 days than the previous 7 days. For me, par property sales were more than double the normal run-rate yesterday and the day before, and Monday was above average. Prior to that they'd been below average for a few days.
Still plenty of loans on the PM, so there must be a lot of money sloshing around in Father Christmas's boots at the moment. I suppose there have been one or two early repayments, which would help.
It looks to me as if the PM will completely dry up by Christmas Day and because of daily repayments over 25,26, 27 and 28th Dec (even with processing delays) there will be a huge overhang (or is it hangover?) by next week. I am holding back my last tranche of old floating rate SME loans for the Boxing Day Sale. I hope to get 3% premium on them all as supply will be so constrained.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 24, 2015 10:41:10 GMT
Under the new regime, Monday and Tuesday PM autobodge is limited by the (typically zero) supply of loans >2 days old, into which it can dump up to 100%. This week has also been boosted by some rather large repayments, so yes par sales have been pretty good compared to the drought a week or so ago. Have to see what happens at Xmas .. depends on whether autobodge even runs, and whether it has any repayment money to play with, and whether Fortuitous Circumstances decide to 'pause' SM sales a bit, and build a war chest for the post-Xmas loans (assuming there are any .. last year the drought on the PM went on-and-on, IIRC).
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acky
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Post by acky on Dec 24, 2015 11:03:45 GMT
Under the new regime, Monday and Tuesday PM autobodge is limited by the (typically zero) supply of loans >2 days old, into which it can dump up to 100%. This week has also been boosted by some rather large repayments, so yes par sales have been pretty good compared to the drought a week or so ago. Have to see what happens at Xmas .. depends on whether autobodge even runs, and whether it has any repayment money to play with, and whether Fortuitous Circumstances decide to 'pause' SM sales a bit, and build a war chest for the post-Xmas loans (assuming there are any .. last year the drought on the PM went on-and-on, IIRC). I accept your logic re Monday and Tuesday, but I am not seeing SM sales any higher on these days than other weekdays. In fact, over the last couple of months, Fridays have been the best day for sales (17% up on weekday average) and Thursdays the worst (30% down), although I am not sure any of this variation is statistically significant. What is certainly significant is, as I have noted here before, that sales on Saturday and Sunday are less than half the weekday average, a trend which has become more stark over the last couple of months.
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Post by aloanatlast on Dec 26, 2015 2:27:11 GMT
Supposed to be a seller's market, and yet I'd rather be a buyer. All the non-property I want to sell is on the market at 0.3%, and the stuff I most want to sell is ar par. Meanwhile there are piles of older loans going at significant discounts to fixed rates. Total mess, deliberately engineered.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Dec 26, 2015 8:48:14 GMT
Under the new regime, Monday and Tuesday PM autobodge is limited by the (typically zero) supply of loans >2 days old, into which it can dump up to 100%. This week has also been boosted by some rather large repayments, so yes par sales have been pretty good compared to the drought a week or so ago. Have to see what happens at Xmas .. depends on whether autobodge even runs, and whether it has any repayment money to play with, and whether Fortuitous Circumstances decide to 'pause' SM sales a bit, and build a war chest for the post-Xmas loans (assuming there are any .. last year the drought on the PM went on-and-on, IIRC). What is certainly significant is, as I have noted here before, that sales on Saturday and Sunday are less than half the weekday average, a trend which has become more stark over the last couple of months. Perhaps your Saturday & Sunday observation applies to bank holidays as well. Very disappointing sales for me yesterday and overnight. But most payments seem to have been made.
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acky
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Post by acky on Dec 26, 2015 10:29:29 GMT
What is certainly significant is, as I have noted here before, that sales on Saturday and Sunday are less than half the weekday average, a trend which has become more stark over the last couple of months. Perhaps your Saturday & Sunday observation applies to bank holidays as well. Very disappointing sales for me yesterday and overnight. But most payments seem to have been made. Yep, that seems to be the case - yesterday saw the worst weekday sales for more than two months (as % of what I have on the market).
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Dec 26, 2015 10:55:03 GMT
It does feel like the big lever has been pushed over towards the "Primary Market" side. So what happens when the primary market empties? Does the autobid server implode?
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acky
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Post by acky on Dec 26, 2015 11:18:58 GMT
It does feel like the big lever has been pushed over towards the "Primary Market" side. So what happens when the primary market empties? Does the autobid server implode? They're supposed to keep the Autobodgers fully funded, I think, which suggests the trawler will make a bumper catch in the SM, but I'm mightily suspicious that this does not happen. Time will tell.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2015 11:23:26 GMT
SM sales seem to have picked up in the last two or three days. For me, no premium property loan sales are 50% higher in the last 7 days than the previous 7 days. For me sales were up only on 22 and 23 December (11 parts sold at par out of 271 property loan parts). The rest of the week looks terrible, including yesterday (0 sales out of 260 property loan parts at par) and today (0 sales). Looks likely to me that autobid is not on (or is in slow mode) for the bank holidays.
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jayjay
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Post by jayjay on Dec 26, 2015 11:30:38 GMT
SM sales seem to have picked up in the last two or three days. For me, no premium property loan sales are 50% higher in the last 7 days than the previous 7 days. For me sales were up only on 22 and 23 December (11 parts sold at par out of 271 property loan parts). The rest of the week looks terrible, including yesterday (0 sales out of 260 property loan parts at par) and today (0 sales). Looks likely to me that autobid is not on (or is in slow mode) for the bank holidays. Autobid seems alive and well working fast on the PM loans that have passed the two day mark.
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