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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 26, 2015 11:36:55 GMT
An alternative hypothesis .. maybe autobodge really does have a 'percentage' lever, and it will only put money into the SM at some rate governed by how much it can put into the PM at the same time. That might explain why it really doesn't seem to pick up as much as expected when the PM is almost empty (as per now, and at weekends).
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jayjay
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Post by jayjay on Dec 26, 2015 11:48:40 GMT
An alternative hypothesis .. maybe autobodge really does have a 'percentage' lever, and it will only put money into the SM at some rate governed by how much it can put into the PM at the same time. That might explain why it really doesn't seem to pick up as much as expected when the PM is almost empty (as per now, and at weekends). We have laboratory conditions now and it seems stacked in the PM's favour. However, I do believe large autobidders can and do turn off the SM with a high rate, I know I would if I were autobidding. The small autobidders are saturated by the property loans anyway. So there are less sinister interpretations.
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SteveT
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SM rates
Dec 26, 2015 15:22:16 GMT
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Post by SteveT on Dec 26, 2015 15:22:16 GMT
Undoubtedly there is some manual throttling of the Autobodge system going on. I've sold just 4 property parts at par in the last 24 hours, down from 25-30 per day earlier this week, yet I'm having one of my best days in a long time for 5-6 month old SME loans at high premiums as manual bidders search out anything worth buying.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 26, 2015 15:44:50 GMT
My assertion is that probably it isn't manual - no PM sales to autobodge -> no SM sales to autobodge either, keeping the %age constant between the two. We shall see if the next day or two actually have any autobodge sales!!
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SteveT
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SM rates
Dec 26, 2015 15:54:28 GMT
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Post by SteveT on Dec 26, 2015 15:54:28 GMT
My assertion is that probably it isn't manual - no PM sales to autobodge -> no SM sales to autobodge either, keeping the %age constant between the two. We shall see if the next day or two actually have any autobodge sales!! Maybe "manual" was the wrong word but it certainly is something deliberate and that has changed in recent weeks, probably from the point Autobodge was permitted to fill loans remaining unfilled after 2 days.
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acky
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Post by acky on Dec 26, 2015 17:19:17 GMT
My assertion is that probably it isn't manual - no PM sales to autobodge -> no SM sales to autobodge either, keeping the %age constant between the two. We shall see if the next day or two actually have any autobodge sales!! Now that there is virtually nothing for Autobodge to consume on the PM, I'm going to attempt some calculation of what it buys on the SM overnight relative to what cash is available to it. The unknown factor here is what proportion of the PL market is held by investors with Autobodge switched on. Does anyone have a feel for what this might me? Judging from the pattern of sales I've been observing on the PM, my gut feel is it might be somewhere vaguely in the region of 50:50 split between Autobodgers and manual investors - any views?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2015 17:39:02 GMT
Undoubtedly there is some manual throttling of the Autobodge system going on. I've sold just 4 property parts at par in the last 24 hours, down from 25-30 per day earlier this week, yet I'm having one of my best days in a long time for 5-6 month old SME loans at high premiums as manual bidders search out anything worth buying. 25-30 property parts sold per day at par out of? These look very prosperous numbers which I cannot register even remotely (I have constantly on sale 250-300 parts at par)
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SteveT
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SM rates
Dec 26, 2015 19:52:00 GMT
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Post by SteveT on Dec 26, 2015 19:52:00 GMT
Undoubtedly there is some manual throttling of the Autobodge system going on. I've sold just 4 property parts at par in the last 24 hours, down from 25-30 per day earlier this week, yet I'm having one of my best days in a long time for 5-6 month old SME loans at high premiums as manual bidders search out anything worth buying. 25-30 property parts sold per day at par out of? These look very prosperous numbers which I cannot register even remotely (I have constantly on sale 250-300 parts at par) Around 1000 at the moment.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 26, 2015 21:23:48 GMT
I sold about 10% of my entire holding today, but nothing at par since 5:28AM this morning, except one which went as part of a marked-up-job-lot to the same (manual) buyer. There is ancient non-property stuff at par which ought to have flown, unless autobuy is out of money, or (as I now suspect) unwilling to venture into the SM except in parallel with venturing into the PM (currently bare apart from the obligatory property dog). I predict another quiet night. On the upside, most of my dubious Es have flown the nest, without having to take a loss (although 1p profit isn't going to buy much turkey).
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Dec 26, 2015 22:23:19 GMT
I hope they are not too dubious as I've got one of them.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Dec 26, 2015 22:48:30 GMT
Perhaps your Saturday & Sunday observation applies to bank holidays as well. Very disappointing sales for me yesterday and overnight. But most payments seem to have been made. Yep, that seems to be the case - yesterday saw the worst weekday sales for more than two months (as % of what I have on the market). An alternative hypothesis .. maybe autobodge really does have a 'percentage' lever, and it will only put money into the SM at some rate governed by how much it can put into the PM at the same time. That might explain why it really doesn't seem to pick up as much as expected when the PM is almost empty (as per now, and at weekends). How about if the main buyers of SM par loans are those with new money on the site? Perhaps new money is coming from bank transfers on non-bank holidays? As FC have 45,000 lenders it is quite possible that many would already have a piece of many of the larger property loans. As others have suggested many of the existing auto bid lenders might be setting their SM settings high (I did for the few weeks I used it), and the rest will probably already have some.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Dec 27, 2015 8:40:40 GMT
How about if the main buyers of SM par loans are those with new money on the site? Perhaps new money is coming from bank transfers on non-bank holidays? As FC have 45,000 lenders it is quite possible that many would already have a piece of many of the larger property loans. As others have suggested many of the existing auto bid lenders might be setting their SM settings high (I did for the few weeks I used it), and the rest will probably already have some. I'm sure you're right that many SM property parts go to new FC lenders but I don't think that accounts for the recent weekend / Bank Holiday selling slumps. Most new lenders will deposit by debit card, giving them immediate access to funds, and weekends previously were happy hunting grounds for SM sales, especially when few PM loans were still live. [That said, I've seen a distinct pick-up overnight with 10 par sales already since midnight against 4 all day yesterday]
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acky
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Post by acky on Dec 27, 2015 18:44:59 GMT
I expected to see rates tumbling on the SM over the Xmas break and the number of parts on offer falling as buyers fell over themselves looking for any value given that there's nothing to buy on the PM. This isn't really happening, although an increase in volume of SME sales at a premium has been reported. I am tracking, for each grade, the number of parts for sale and the rate of the 100th, 250th, 500th and 1,000th part ranked in descending order of Buyer Rate. Comparing this evening against yesterday morning, the number of parts for sale in every grade has gone up and what little movement there has been in the rates of the above benchmark loan parts has been predominantly marginally upwards!
My monitoring is with the intention of throwing in some overpriced bargain SME parts at the right time hoping to get the best rate over this festive period, but clearly I am not alone in this objective, hence the number of parts actually going up and the rates refusing to soften.
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nick
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Post by nick on Dec 27, 2015 19:03:46 GMT
I expected to see rates tumbling on the SM over the Xmas break and the number of parts on offer falling as buyers fell over themselves looking for any value given that there's nothing to buy on the PM. This isn't really happening, although an increase in volume of SME sales at a premium has been reported. I am tracking, for each grade, the number of parts for sale and the rate of the 100th, 250th, 500th and 1,000th part ranked in descending order of Buyer Rate. Comparing this evening against yesterday morning, the number of parts for sale in every grade has gone up and what little movement there has been in the rates of the above benchmark loan parts has been predominantly marginally upwards!
My monitoring is with the intention of throwing in some overpriced bargain SME parts at the right time hoping to get the best rate over this festive period, but clearly I am not alone in this objective, hence the number of parts actually going up and the rates refusing to soften. Patience - we are only 4 days into the festive period with probably 2-3 weeks before the PM is back up to speed the SM part pool will clear............
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Post by ratrace on Dec 27, 2015 19:40:38 GMT
Where l like to buy in the SM there not a lot on offer. Not enough loan parts selling at par-0.3+% at the moment. But a key thing to buying well on the SM is patience. Because at some point you know there will be sellers who will be running out of it.
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