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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2015 15:07:02 GMT
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SteveT
Member of DD Central
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Post by SteveT on Apr 2, 2015 15:18:53 GMT
How the hell can a company that's barely LENT $1bn to date be thought to be worth $1bn (however exponential the future growth projections). I wonder if it was Frustratingly Cryptic themselves that ran the numbers....
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Apr 2, 2015 15:23:35 GMT
I'm really starting to believe that you can fool most of the people most of the time  |
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Post by mrclondon on Apr 2, 2015 15:28:15 GMT
How the hell can a company that's barely LENT $1bn to date be thought to be worth $1bn (however exponential the future growth projections). I wonder if it was Frustratingly Cryptic themselves that ran the numbers.... Rightly or wrongly the current institutional belief is the p2p companies are indeed worth c. 1 times total loans originated. This isn't quite a multiple picked out of thin air - it is in fact based on the actual valuation of Lending Club in the US over a four year period (see table 2 in www.lendacademy.com/analysis-lending-club-valuation/ )
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SteveT
Member of DD Central
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Post by SteveT on Apr 2, 2015 15:54:23 GMT
How the hell can a company that's barely LENT $1bn to date be thought to be worth $1bn (however exponential the future growth projections). I wonder if it was Frustratingly Cryptic themselves that ran the numbers.... Rightly or wrongly the current institutional belief is the p2p companies are indeed worth c. 1 times total loans originated. This isn't quite a multiple picked out of thin air - it is in fact based on the actual valuation of Lending Club in the US over a four year period (see table 2 in www.lendacademy.com/analysis-lending-club-valuation/ ) Hilarious stuff. I particularly liked: "Although LC was able to generate high revenue growth to date, in order to justify the high valuation, investors need to believe the Company will be able to continue attaining extraordinary growth (keeping a similar growth trajectory as in the past few years) and leverage its operating efficiency to achieve high profitability in the future. Essentially, the high valuation assumes LC will be able to achieve its mission of transforming the banking system."
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 2, 2015 15:56:21 GMT
I'm really starting to believe that you can fool most of the people most of the time It's the Daily Brownshirt, fertheloveofgawd... I'm not even convinced I believe the date on the front cover without supporting evidence.
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coop
Member of DD Central
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Post by coop on Apr 2, 2015 16:00:12 GMT
Rightly or wrongly the current institutional belief is the p2p companies are indeed worth c. 1 times total loans originated. This isn't quite a multiple picked out of thin air - it is in fact based on the actual valuation of Lending Club in the US over a four year period (see table 2 in www.lendacademy.com/analysis-lending-club-valuation/ ) Hilarious stuff. I particularly liked: "Although LC was able to generate high revenue growth to date, in order to justify the high valuation, investors need to believe the Company will be able to continue attaining extraordinary growth (keeping a similar growth trajectory as in the past few years) and leverage its operating efficiency to achieve high profitability in the future. Essentially, the high valuation assumes LC will be able to achieve its mission of transforming the banking system." If only all stock was valued in such a way, eh? My spread bet on BT would be throughthe roof at £10 a share "the high valuation assuming BT and EE will have a completely successful merger and dominate phone, broadband, tv and linerental for decades to come" 
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am
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Post by am on Apr 2, 2015 16:06:58 GMT
P2P Global Investments (EPIC P2P) is currently trading at about a 12% premium to NAV. It has been higher.
The only broker following the company has set a target price in the range of a 35-40% premium (depending on whether this target is cum div or ex div).
Personally, I don't think that it's paying sufficient dividend to justify even the current premium, but that depends on what the dividend stream turns out to be, and how hungry investors are for yield.
VPC Speciality Lending Investments (VSL) is at a lower premium. I'm guessing at about 4%, but the NAV is not immediately obvious.
For comparison Greencoat UK Wind (UKW), an infrastructure fund, is yielding 5.5% on a 5% premium, with a targetted increase in NAV as well. Bluefield Solar Income Fund (BSIF) is targetting a yield of about 6.5%, and is currently at a premium of a few percent.
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SteveT
Member of DD Central
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Post by SteveT on Apr 2, 2015 16:14:00 GMT
I'm now aiming to go live with "Funding Suckerz" next week, just as soon as I can decide what colour to use. My plan is to raise £100k against the house, lend it out repeatedly to my dog over the next few months (I confidently project zero defaults and zero late payments) and then float for around £10 million in the autumn. If anyone wants to buy into a 10% stake now, I'm happy to offer an attractive discount (20%, or 25% even at a pinch) against the projected Sept 2015 valuation. Form an orderly queue.
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am
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Post by am on Apr 2, 2015 16:26:43 GMT
I don't know how large the overheads are, so this isn't much more than a guess, but my finger in the air is that a P2P company has to generate about £2.5 billion pounds in loans per annum to be worth £1 billion. Add a bit more to account for the discount on the future value, and you've got an indication of how much assumed growth is in the current price.
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Post by bracknellboy on Apr 2, 2015 17:08:02 GMT
Not new news though: front page of business section of the Sunday Times w/e before last announced that FC were getting additional investment at a level that would value it at circa £500m.
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Post by westonkevRS on Apr 23, 2015 5:35:50 GMT
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min
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Post by min on Apr 23, 2015 6:38:06 GMT
Thought this was interesting: 'Former Betfair CEO David Yu appointed product chief'. Will I get the feeling that Fleecing Customers will treat me even more like a punter in a betting shop than I feel they do now?
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2015 16:21:02 GMT
Finally seen deals close at A+10.4% and A 13.8% max interest rates in the last 20 deals, are we about to get a real rise?  |
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SteveT
Member of DD Central
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Post by SteveT on May 7, 2015 20:24:52 GMT
Things are a little better than they were in April but I think both of those auctions closed early (assuming they were 12596 and 12699)
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