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Post by yorkshireman on May 3, 2015 9:09:29 GMT
By portfolio I mean all investments not just P2P.
Leaving political loyalties and individual opinions on the likely consequences of each scenario to one side, what strategies would forum members advocate to protect their portfolio in the following situations?
1. A left wing government comprised of Labour propped up by the SNP and other parties, not including the LibDems as a moderating influence, which could be anti business and a recipe for economic disaster.
2. A right of centre government, not including the Lib Dems, committed to a referendum which could lead to the UK leaving the EU which may or may not cause problems for business.
3. A minority government whether it be Conservative or Labour.
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Post by bracknellboy on May 3, 2015 9:23:54 GMT
scenario 1: gold and US stocks
scenario 2: gold and US stocks
scenario 3: gold and US stocks
just a thought.
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Post by davee39 on May 3, 2015 9:29:09 GMT
I will do absolutely nothing in the face of what amounts to press hysteria.
The communists are hardly at the door about to seize our assets.
My market investments are modest and cautious so should be placed for any eventuality. I expect a small fall and will use the opportunity to top up my wife's pension.
My biggest losses arise as a result of low interest rates on protected savings so the best outcome for me would be an SNP UKIP Coalition demolishing the pound and sending Interest rates to 10%.
As for the outcome - a Labour or Conservative minority govt, no Lab SNP pact, and a consensual path steered until both main parties change leaders and we have another go in October with Boris then adding votes for the Blues. (It goes without saying that the LD's will be needing a new leader after Clegg has a Portillo moment).
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Post by captainconfident on May 3, 2015 9:56:40 GMT
My portfolio strategy is fingers crossed. If a pro referendum government results, gold + US stocks.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2015 10:20:24 GMT
No new investment in UK since 2014, except via funds as in this part of the cycle "pros beat amateurs"
Heavy investment in blue european and swedish stocks
Strong investment in non-japanese and non-china far east stocks
retention of US stocks
Continued development in P2P
After election and announcment of governement then possible short term focus on UK, there has to be a bigger fool than me out there...
If another election soon then stay away
If Cons get in then stronger focus on Europe (saw a nice palace on the Mosel for E500k, the other day)
If Lab get in then ditto but also removal of remaining UK investments ("we're from the government and we are here to help")
BRICs still look very weak, I see Russia and Brasil getting worse, I see India's Mosi as a busted flush and only China has some sort of strategy but less growth head room now that it has become all middle class
"We're all doomed, doomed I tell'e"
Have a great weekend, t'tour coming past my house in a few hours
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adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 9,009 
Likes: 4,821
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Post by adrianc on May 3, 2015 14:40:36 GMT
I don't agree with the apparent consensus that a referendum on EU membership will lead to instability, except for the very short term. In fact, I think the opposite is true, because I'm convinced that it will actually remove all the uncertainty, with a solid "yes". Those who are against are a small but vocal minority, centred around ukip - 9% of the electorate last year, looking like 10% this time. No more than that. And that's without much of a campaign on selling the undoubted benefits, just lots of hysteria over negatives.
So... Referendum? Bring it on. And take advantage of short-termism to buy low...
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bigfoot12
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,817
Likes: 816
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Post by bigfoot12 on May 3, 2015 14:47:26 GMT
I don't agree with the apparent consensus that a referendum on EU membership will lead to instability, except for the very short term. In fact, I think the opposite is true, because I'm convinced that it will actually remove all the uncertainty, with a solid "yes". Those who are against are a small but vocal minority, centred around ukip Just like the referendum in Scotland (led by a, at the time, small vocal minority) has removed all the uncertainty... (Oh and two years seems like quite a long short term in investment horizons to me.)
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