spiral
Member of DD Central
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Post by spiral on May 26, 2015 8:51:52 GMT
Sorry this is a bit late. I Intended to post this info a couple of months back but forgot and a comment on another thread reminded me. I did some calculations with the Altfi data when it first came out using RS and Zopa combined for the 5 yr market. This showed: 1% repay in full after about 20 days 5% repay in full by month 7 8.9% repay in full by the end of the first year. 17.9% have repaid before 2.5 years and 23.4% repay before full term. Attached is a chart which shows (with the exception of the first 7 months) the decreasing probability that a loan will be repaid in any given month as it gets older. The peak in the first month I suspect is probably due to those that either cancel their loan within the cooling off period or those that know they have a "bonus" due but just can't wait to spend it. There is then a sharp drop for month 2 but with a gradual increase until month 7 so these I suspect are people that really only ever wanted a true short term loan and/or possibly when many of the defaults occur. From month 7 onwards, the likelihood of it being repaid in any given month drops as each month passes. Attachments:
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Post by westonkevRS on May 26, 2015 10:19:39 GMT
This analysis is spot on, as I've done very similar internal analysis but for whatever reason am unable to share. The only slight amendment is that median point for defaults (for RateSetter) is at 10 months (very much a bell curve, excluding for the very small number of frauds). @ westonkevRS
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spiral
Member of DD Central
Posts: 909
Likes: 456
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Post by spiral on May 26, 2015 14:47:48 GMT
Nice to know I've done something right for a change. Can I please use this to count towards housework chores please
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