oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Jan 21, 2016 17:48:28 GMT
I shall be leaving all my other "buy" orders open while everyone else sells up and rushes to get a slice of this edit: I wonder how big the slices will be. Maybe we will only be allowed half a slice.
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Post by badger on Jan 21, 2016 17:53:25 GMT
On the question of risk vs reward - sort Live Loans by Annual Rate, and see how many suspended loans there are below 10%, and how many above 10%. Tells its own story I think.
Chris - small request - could you highlight in some way those loans which are awaiting drawdown in the 'Your Loans' view please
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tonyr
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Post by tonyr on Jan 21, 2016 17:56:51 GMT
There is now nothing in "units available". Wow. Nothing at all. I can't see the market coming back to life for a long time, if ever. We may have to resign ourselves to setting targets and grabbing whatever appears.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Jan 21, 2016 18:00:28 GMT
There is now nothing in "units available". Wow. Nothing at all. I can't see the market coming back to life for a long time, if ever. We may have to resign ourselves to setting targets and grabbing whatever appears. Oh well. Maybe that's a good thing. Mr HMRC is glaring threateningly in my direction.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 21, 2016 18:09:58 GMT
Ladies & Gentlemen The cupboard is no longer bare, #224 is scheduled to drawdown tomorrow. Its a spicy little Italian number paying 8% on £70k at 73%LTV
Think this will have to draw down without me. 8% for 73% LTV (second charge?) doesn't sound a lot for a new business start up. Besides, I'm in the FC posh Italian west end place that went down the pan, so currently rating Italian restaurants only just above scrap metal dealers on the desirable scale.
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 21, 2016 18:11:34 GMT
I shall be leaving all my other "buy" orders open while everyone else sells up and rushes to get a slice of this edit: I wonder how big the slices will be. Maybe we will only be allowed half a slice.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2016 18:25:01 GMT
The return-to-risk ratio for AC loans does seem to be shifting observably lower. Doesn't mean the loans are bad value in absolute terms but they are clearly less attractive in relative terms. I note many of these deals are also pretty small (at least compared to SS or TC deals, though not FC). In P2B lending, pricing to liquidity just seems to trump pricing to risk every time. Small loans are offered at a big yield give-up to big loans, even if the DSC and security would imply a similar expected loss given default. It seems the instos prefer large numbers of small loans deals rather than smaller numbers of big deals for reasons I don't really understand but AC is giving them what they want.
#224 @ 8% and just £70k notional is a good example. The SME is a start-up restaurant, which statistically have very poor 5 year survival rates; the last restaurant failed. The DSC looks great but is nothing more than a forecast; there is no empirical evidence to support it. The security should be reasonably liquid being a modest family home but it's 74% LTV for a second charge. I can't see this as a compelling risk-return proposition.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 21, 2016 18:34:20 GMT
The security should be reasonably liquid being a modest family home Modest? Around our way £465k would get you a palace
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Post by bracknellboy on Jan 21, 2016 19:46:30 GMT
On the face of it, this little Italian number feels like a barge pole one: startup RESTAURANT; security is a second charge on a matrimonial home (do they have kids ?) with an LTV which wouldn't take too much of a combination of a misvaluation plus market condition changes to start impacting capital recovery, and with risk that it could take a considerable time to enforce (?); no evidence (I may be wrong, only scanned) of performance of prior restaurant business at the site to take comfort in whether the levels of predicted business are achievable; clear signals that the borrower has pretty much cleared the cupboard out in terms of funds to invest if cost / cashflow projections are out; and a rate of 8%. Am I missing something ? It takes a lot for me to lend to restaurants, let alone startups, and this is not fitting the bill for me. I don't get the risk / rate trade off here. Hopefully not indicative of what else is in the pipeline
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Jan 21, 2016 20:07:56 GMT
ilmoro Great picture (by Gale Franey). Definitely caught my good side. She let me have the whole pizza. I saw the details and thought AC had snaffled one of Fried Cabbage's E risk band deals, then realised it was one of the new 8% A+ loans .... and no lender fee to pay
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Post by chielamangus on Jan 21, 2016 20:48:23 GMT
I shall be leaving all my other "buy" orders open while everyone else sells up and rushes to get a slice of this edit: I wonder how big the slices will be. Maybe we will only be allowed half a slice. I don't think many will be selling up. After the QAA and the GBBA take their portions there won't be a lot left for perhaps 1000 investors, desperate to lend on something, anything, who will cash in some of their QAA first. The first divi might be around £40 but AC would know that this would rile investors after the long drought, so will probably try to allocate £100 each minimum. You'll be better off sticking to your bananas.
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baldpate
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Post by baldpate on Jan 21, 2016 21:27:15 GMT
#224 @ 8% and just £70k notional is a good example. The SME is a start-up restaurant, which statistically have very poor 5 year survival rates; the last restaurant failed. The DSC looks great but is nothing more than a forecast; there is no empirical evidence to support it. The security should be reasonably liquid being a modest family home but it's 74% LTV for a second charge. I can't see this as a compelling risk-return proposition. A well-worded and very fair analysis - my rather more succinct version was "You're having a larf !"
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Jan 21, 2016 21:28:42 GMT
Randomly I seem to have a target already? On the 950k one.
Sorting the pipeline on rate gives a very random order. All other sorts seem to work.
That said, it is very positive to see that there is a lot coming soon and I quite like the split and month element. Well done.
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Investboy
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Post by Investboy on Jan 21, 2016 21:36:59 GMT
Where can we find more info about that? Not currently published on the internet and only just thinking about contacting recruiters (I hate having to deal with them). If genuinely interested then please feel free to PM me your details. We have one urgent replacement to find and will need several more of varying talents over the next few months. The development team is based in Farnborough, Hampshire, however operate a flexitime policy and allow working from home for a proportion of the working week. I hate those leaches too. 2 ideas for you: a) post it here on the forum b) add Careers page on your website. I hoped one can work from your head office in London
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Post by chris on Jan 21, 2016 21:38:45 GMT
Not currently published on the internet and only just thinking about contacting recruiters (I hate having to deal with them). If genuinely interested then please feel free to PM me your details. We have one urgent replacement to find and will need several more of varying talents over the next few months. The development team is based in Farnborough, Hampshire, however operate a flexitime policy and allow working from home for a proportion of the working week. I hate those leaches too. 2 ideas for you: a) post it here on the forum b) add Careers page on your website. I hoped one can work from your head office in London Head office is in Stockport, however our office is 35 minutes from Waterloo by train. We do have some space in our London office so it's a possibility but it would be harder to manage without face time at least one day a week.
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