merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
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Post by merlin on Aug 8, 2015 10:28:37 GMT
I have just past my third anniversary of joining FC and thought it worthwhile looking back at how things have gone. My average investment has been around £5k and net of Fees and losses I have earned a tad under 5% pa over the three year period. However FC would have me believe I am currently earning 6.4% net of fees and bad debts but I guess this represents the current situation rather than the full history.
I gave up investing new money in FC when I realised I was unlikely to achieve the 7% figure that I was hoping for and that now is nearly a year ago. Then there is the issue of the amount of time spent managing my investment. If I was to have spent my time stacking shelves in the local supermarket on minimum wage I would probably have been better off to the tune of many thousands of pounds.
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Post by goldservice on Aug 8, 2015 10:59:53 GMT
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Aug 8, 2015 11:33:09 GMT
Then there is the issue of the amount of time spent managing my investment. If I was to have spent my time stacking shelves in the local supermarket on minimum wage I would probably have been better off to the tune of many thousands of pounds.
'course, the actual £ return depends on the £ invested... 5%/yr of a couple of mill would be MUCH more lucrative than shelf-stacking. 50%/yr of ten grand would be less enthralling. Just over a year after my first FC toe-dip, the actual £ return has been low for me - but I still don't have that much in, on a grand global scale. But XIRR says 9.6% annual - and 6.25% for the much lower-work RS (after 8mo). I'm happy with that.
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blender
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Post by blender on Aug 8, 2015 12:06:45 GMT
There is a time-efficient way on FC to achieve 6 to 7% pa over three years on £5k. It's called Autobid. It can be combined with shelf stacking - and I do think it is to FC's credit that it supports low income workers with small savings in that way.
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maxmarengo
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Post by maxmarengo on Aug 8, 2015 13:19:35 GMT
I have also just passed my third anniversary. My annual returns before tax are 10.3%, 11.8% and 12.3% over the last year (based on *current value + accrued interest - a provision for bad debt on downgraded loans).
It looks like I have got more skilful, but part of the improvement is because Year 1 was depressed by a few bad debts - more common at the time than they are now. Since then there have been some recoveries which have helped Y2 and Y3. Still watching the Jeans saga with interest.
I was putting quite a lot of time in to this until about Feb this year. The property loans have been helping my returns over recent months and they are much less work than active bidding and trading. I expect my overall rate to decline but will be happy with anything over 9%.
*My current value is: invested + Net Earnings (I do not count the £125 that FC have "lent" me as a profit).
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merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
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Post by merlin on Aug 8, 2015 14:35:04 GMT
Perhaps I should have said that the front page on FC showing my account details actually says Gross Yield 13.9%: Annualised return (after fees and bad debts is 6.4%; Estimated fully diversified return (after fees and bad debts) is 10.1%. Does not sound too bad if it was true but when you work it though on the numbers you get a different story.
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blender
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Post by blender on Aug 8, 2015 16:22:04 GMT
Perhaps I should have said that the front page on FC showing my account details actually says Gross Yield 13.9%: Annualised return (after fees and bad debts is 6.4%; Estimated fully diversified return (after fees and bad debts) is 10.1%. Does not sound too bad if it was true but when you work it though on the numbers you get a different story. The problem is that the two high figures are future predictions while the low all time earnings is historical, annualised over the three years. Either things should get better, or you are a default magnet.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Aug 8, 2015 20:23:59 GMT
And IIRC, even the "annualised return" only applies to money you actually have invested .. anything sitting un-bid didn't appear to figure in the calculation last time I looked. And then it's an APR figure, so you have to back off some more to un-compound it. I stick the numbers into excel and use IRR (or just do it iteratively) to get some number I can believe in. Given my propensity for bidding on the high rate, maybe never taken up, big loans, I am lucky if the FC annualised return number is no more than twice what I calculate the real answer is.
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Post by ratrace on Aug 8, 2015 21:26:51 GMT
Well am feeling better now l have rejoined the FC elite.  Tonight my AR has climbed back up to 10% after my default knocked it from 11.9 down to 9%. Which according to the FC stats puts me back into the top 1%.  |
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Aug 9, 2015 6:46:10 GMT
Sounds lie you are not a diversity criminal then? (I.E. more than 1% in any one company). The top 1% there are a bit higher.
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maxmarengo
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Post by maxmarengo on Aug 9, 2015 9:29:50 GMT
Perhaps I should have said that the front page on FC showing my account details actually says Gross Yield 13.9%: Annualised return (after fees and bad debts is 6.4%; Estimated fully diversified return (after fees and bad debts) is 10.1%. Does not sound too bad if it was true but when you work it though on the numbers you get a different story. The problem is that the two high figures are future predictions while the low all time earnings is historical, annualised over the three years. Either things should get better, or you are a default magnet. I read it a little differently. The first two figures are historical and it is the "Estimated Fully..." that is the projection from now on. The historicals are inflated by any promotions (and other favourable assumptions mentioned above). I have never paid much attention to these figures. I prefer to do my own calculations so I know what assumptions have been made. At the moment the annualised return is about .8% higher than my own calculations.
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jo
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Post by jo on Aug 9, 2015 9:31:26 GMT
(FC calculated) Annualised return (after fees and bad debts): 6.9%
Actual XIRR: 6.47% (slippage being speed of investment I guess).
3.5 yrs in.
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blender
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Post by blender on Aug 9, 2015 10:17:04 GMT
The problem is that the two high figures are future predictions while the low all time earnings is historical, annualised over the three years. Either things should get better, or you are a default magnet. I read it a little differently. The first two figures are historical and it is the "Estimated Fully..." that is the projection from now on. The historicals are inflated by any promotions (and other favourable assumptions mentioned above). I have never paid much attention to these figures. I prefer to do my own calculations so I know what assumptions have been made. At the moment the annualised return is about .8% higher than my own calculations. OK to be exact the gross is today rather than future, but I would not call it historical in that it takes no account of what you have earned in the past, and is simply a calculation of the gross compounded annual rate of the loan parts you hold at this moment - based on the interest rate or buyer rate at which you bought and ignoring cash trades and promotions. Whether you held the same or different loans yesterday, or none at all, does not affect the figure - unless I have misunderstood for 3 years. My annualised return over 3 years is 1.3% above the gross rate and 3.3% above the estimated fully diversified - (so not keen on diversification).
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am
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Post by am on Aug 9, 2015 10:38:09 GMT
FC claim my annualised return is 9.7% (over 30 months), but a back of the envelope calculation is that I've made over 3.5% in the last 4 months, in spite of losses amounting to 0.25% of the portfolio. (Must be the cashback.)
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Aug 9, 2015 11:16:51 GMT
FC claim my annualised return is 9.7% (over 30 months) Do they? Or is that the estimated annualised return of your current holding?
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