stevio
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Post by stevio on Aug 23, 2015 16:09:34 GMT
I really want to invest in Ablrate (even if I can't pronounce/spell their name half the time). I have tried to read up on this, particularly aircraft loans, but my brain starts to scream!
With aircraft, can anyone explain the principles in layman's terms?
eg: Who owns the aircraft?
What happens to the aircraft if loan is not paid?
How much security is there in the aircraft, who else has a claim on it and where in line would we stand?
What's the depreciation like on an aircraft?
How easy is it to sell an aircraft - how long to sell?
Some loans with the same company are showing as missed payments - but was does that actually mean?
Leasing Who's leasing to who?
P****** Aircraft Leasing is?
What are maintenance reserves?
If a company is leasing an aircraft for x, do we not need to know how much they make from using the aircraft and selling the seats onboard etc to know if that covers the amount they are paying for the lease?
Thanks for any help!!!!!
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stevio
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Post by stevio on Aug 23, 2015 16:22:07 GMT
For instance, does anyone understand and can explain the figures in the latest offering:
3 Year Term, 11% per annum with INSTANT RETURNS. The purpose of the loan is to refinance the aircraft from our current funders. The aircraft is on lease at £49,000 per month with £32,000 being paid in maintenance reserves. The funders are under contract to sell the aircraft to us (as the current lessors) and we would like to take up this option as there is excellent value within the aircraft. We will run the aircraft to the end of its lease in 2 years and then re-lease it to other customers, selling the aircraft with lease attached to pay the loan capital to Lenders.
Ascend values the aircraft currently at $5.35 million (£3.5 million at current rates) giving Lenders £1,025,000 in security above the value of the loan request (a 71% loan to value). The residual value projection is $3.48 million (£2.3 million at current rates) at the end of the term (figures available in the documents to download), current market values suggest that this residual is conservative. Net cash will be accumulated within the SPV at £12,000 per month leaving the aircraft + cash value at the end of the term of £2.732 million at the lowest residual values. The maintenance reserves will also accrue in the account and the Ascend projected lease rate at the end of the term is £43,000 per month.
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james
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Post by james on Aug 23, 2015 16:51:12 GMT
The most recent loans have been the two "New Marine Containers" loans for borrower Ca******. You can find them on the secondary market because they filled shortly after being made available. The physical containers from the loan without July 2015 are currently either in the container ship at Felixtowe container port, ashore there or in transit to their UK locations at the moment because ti appears that the ship Merete Maersk that they were shipped on is in Felixtowe at the moment. Don't know which ship the July loan's containers is on but they are probably in transit in the far east at the moment. The container loans are secured on a combination of the physical containers and the invoice for the agreed purchase of part of the container order. The loans pay 14% interest with no capital repayments until the end but you're unlikely to find them on the secondary market at 14%, 10-12% is more likely.
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james
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Post by james on Aug 23, 2015 17:12:53 GMT
The "ATR 42-500 to Government Owned Airline (Refinance)" loan that is visible in the new loans section is not currently available. It currently has all permitted offers to lend on it and is stalled due to a problem with the underwriting process, a situation it's been for several months. The loan has the "instant returns" feature and Ablrate has been diligently paying that money instead of the interest that we'd be getting if the loan had fully completed. You can't currently invest in this loan either as an original lender or on the secondary market. Follow the Details link to get to more information about this loan. You'll find such things as owner and valuation information there. Use this search for posts from Ablrate about the borrower to learn more about them and this type of loan in general. The owner will become the leasing firm eventually. The aircraft will be seized if the loan is not paid, such planes require parts and are apparently not hard to track. So far as I'm aware the value of the aircraft is more than sufficient to cover the loan even at moderate valuation and there are no other claims on it. Re missed payments, two loans were fully on time, one made the most recent payment a little late and the fourth had the 16/6/15 payment late [later, Ablerateandy explains that the time when a loan is applied online can be later than the time the payment is made and all payments were really on time]. If this borrower continues to make late payments they are likely to find that investors are unwilling to lend to them on Ablrate, or only willing to do so at higher interest rates, since P2P lenders tend to be very sensitive to late payments or any hint of payments not happening exactly on time. Because I have given details of late payments you'll note that I have refrained from naming the borrower involved in those loans. You may find that a moderator removes the name of the borrower from your post as well, unless Ablrate choose to name the borrower and confirm the lates, since in general it is not desired here to identify borrowers having payment problems with full names (and not in general, I've done it in my earlier reply because Ablrate named that borrower here). In general do not give full borrower names here, the Ablrate platform having done so in this case is exceptional, not the norm.There is apparently a lively resale market and sale unlikely to take more than a few months. There's a general supply shortage for aircraft of this particular capacity. P* A* L* is a firm that buys aircraft and leases them to others, just like hire cars. The founder of the firm also has a 30% ownership interest in the Ablrate P2P platform. Maintenance reserves are there to cover the costs of maintaining the aircraft, from mandatory inspections at regular intervals to replacement parts. We don't need to know what the government that is leasing the aircraft is charging for seats and freight because that operator of the aircraft is not the place that is buying it, the buyer is P*. P* are buying it with a loan from here because that is apparently cheaper than their existing finance package on the aircraft, so their incentive is to borrow here to save themselves money and make more profit from the plane.
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Post by ablrateandy on Aug 23, 2015 17:20:18 GMT
Hello stevio. Feel free to drop one of us a line by email or DM on the site ( ablrate is the boss). We have a document lurking that may answer some of your questions. In answer to some of your questions : Who owns the aircraft?
Generally the aircraft are owned by a special purpose company and this will be a company (Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV or SPC)) containing just one aircraft and the associated rights to lease payments, insurance etc. This keeps everything segregated so that a failure to pay on one contract does not impact another. What happens to the aircraft if loan is not paid?
There are two situations here that you need to consider. 1. If a lease payment is not made, generally there would be enough cash in the SPV (from overpayments and maintenance reserves) to make the loan payments for a short time anyway. If it was a continuing situation we would seek to terminate the lease and find a new client for the aircraft. 2. If a loan monthly payment is not made, Ablrate Assets Ltd acting on behalf of the lenders would pursue the SPV and if necessary force a re-lease or enforce a sale to recover money. We have a charge over the aircraft that effectively allows us to ground it if payments are not made in a timely manner (we hold something called a deregistration certificate). The final point is that the repayment of capital depends upon us being able to re-sell the aircraft or re-finance it at maturity of the loan. Bearing in mind that we know with 3 years notice when a loan is due to mature, we work with the borrower to ensure that ducks are lined up to make the repayments. How much security is there in the aircraft, who else has a claim on it and where in line would we stand?
"It depends". If we grow fast enough then our loans will be senior because we will be providing all of the financing. In some cases we are a second charge. We always clarify this. Bear in mind that the profit for the lessor (ie. Phoenix mainly) comes at the end of the lease. Over the life of the loan they take a very low fee per month to cover administration costs and everything else goes into the SPV. They aim to make their money by selling or re-financing at maturity and only get paid out AFTER the lenders. What's the depreciation like on an aircraft?
"It depends" . I can send you a depreciation table on ATRs as a good example. They are generally assumed to have a 25 year life and depreciate fastest in the first five years. All of our loans contain a predicted future value of the aircraft. In the sector that we deal in, generally depreciation is low and the aircraft have historically outperformed predicted future values by a good margin. How easy is it to sell an aircraft - how long to sell?
We have a long lead time and so whilst it can take weeks to sell an aircraft, we have years to arrange the sale or re-lease. Generally our aircraft would be sold "lease attached" which makes them more desirable. Some loans with the same company are showing as missed payments - but was does that actually mean?
That means that the boss has accidentally paid it into lender accounts after midnight instead of at 23.59. None of our loans have ever had a late payment. Who's leasing to who?
Generally, we are providing use of the aircraft to a leasing company (often Phoenix) who then lease it to an airline, government or corporate. The lease cashflows are then paid to the SPV and Phoenix are paid a management fee. This is always detailed. Sometimes the lease is for the full length of the loan but sometimes it is shorter or longer. The key to valuing an aircraft is to understand who is leasing it. For example, we have a few out to government-owned airlines who are highly unlikely (imho) to default because they need to keep the routes operating. We also lease to corporates who are delivering bits and pieces to remote Indonesian company outposts etc Phoenix Aircraft Leasing is?
Phoenix is run by Tony Griffin who is an old hand in the market. Our sector is about personal relationships - we aren't trying to lease A380s to Emirates (largely cos that would only yield around 3%). What are maintenance reserves?
The great thing about aircraft is that they are heavily monitored independently by a company called Ascend. They record all take-offs, landings, pressurisations etc so we can see how heavily used the aircraft is. In conjunction with a lot of due diligence before we lend on an aircraft, we know its exact state and can accurately predict exactly when things need servicing, when tyres need replacing etc. We want the aircraft to come back in a good state and when we sign a lease we give the lessee a list of anticipated repairs over the life of the lease and the cost. They are responsible for these costs. However, instead of relying upon them having the cash on hand, we charge a "Maintenance Reserve" each month that allows us to build up a pot of money to pay for repairs as they fall due. At a simple level, we would receive X per month based upon spending 6X in month 6. This means that no lessee should ever have an unexpected maintenance expense. This money is held in the SPV. Generally the actual expenses are lower than what we collect. If a lessee defaults they would struggle to recover this extra cash from us as we would set off against expenses and missed payments so whilst technically we wouldn't normally include this as security, it is a bit of a case of "possession is 9/10 of the law". If a company is leasing an aircraft for x, do we not need to know how much they make from using the aircraft and selling the seats onboard etc to know if that covers the amount they are paying for the lease?
Generally I would say not. It would however be prudent to consider the financial strength of the lessee though, which is why we are selective on who we lease to - can they afford the payments and do they have a good history? We do not lease to people who have previously missed lease payments to anyone.
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james
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Post by james on Aug 23, 2015 17:29:18 GMT
For instance, does anyone understand and can explain the figures in the latest offering: 3 Year Term, 11% per annum with INSTANT RETURNS. The purpose of the loan is to refinance the aircraft from our current funders. The aircraft is on lease at £49,000 per month with £32,000 being paid in maintenance reserves. The funders are under contract to sell the aircraft to us (as the current lessors) and we would like to take up this option as there is excellent value within the aircraft. We will run the aircraft to the end of its lease in 2 years and then re-lease it to other customers, selling the aircraft with lease attached to pay the loan capital to Lenders.The loan is expected to lat for three years. It is an interest only loan and the capital will not be repaid until the end of the three year term. Annualised interest rate is 11% which will be paid in monthly pieces pro-rata. The borrower thinks that they can get money more cheaply here than under their current arrangement, so they are looking to refinance that more expensive method with a loan from here. Their justification is that lower cost to them and same payment to them from the airline they are leasing it to will mean more profit for them. Instant returns means that Ablrate will pay money instead of interest from the time you make an offer to lend to the time the loan completes. The borrower themselves has no obligation to pay interest because during this time they don't have their money. Ascend values the aircraft currently at $5.35 million (£3.5 million at current rates) giving Lenders £1,025,000 in security above the value of the loan request (a 71% loan to value). The residual value projection is $3.48 million (£2.3 million at current rates) at the end of the term (figures available in the documents to download), current market values suggest that this residual is conservative. Net cash will be accumulated within the SPV at £12,000 per month leaving the aircraft + cash value at the end of the term of £2.732 million at the lowest residual values. The maintenance reserves will also accrue in the account and the Ascend projected lease rate at the end of the term is £43,000 per month. Like a mortgage, the aircraft has 71% loan to value according to aircraft valuation firm Ascend. This means that the expected resale value of the aircraft is enough to cover the amount being borrowed and more. SPV is Special purpose Vehicle, a company created to do the owning and borrowing involved here. This is a very common method, setting up one company for each thing, typically used for ships as well. The SPV is getting to accumulate a net profit from the leasing operation, £12,000 a month of it. Ascend project that after the end of the existing lease the aircraft can be leased to a new airline or the current one at £43,000 a month. You can compare that to the cost of the loan.
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Post by ablrateandy on Aug 23, 2015 17:30:49 GMT
This link should help with aircraft valuations.
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james
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Post by james on Aug 23, 2015 17:35:14 GMT
Some loans with the same company are showing as missed payments - but was does that actually mean?
That means that the boss has accidentally paid it into lender accounts after midnight instead of at 23.59. None of our loans have ever had a late payment. You'll find that the Caravan loan currently shows as having the payment due on 16/9/2015 as a "future" payment even though it was a week ago. Naughty boss, I suppose... Ablrate really should try to get the records correct, though, it's bad news if a borrower shows even the slightest history of late payments. I was serious about them possibly having trouble being able to borrow or to borrow as much as they want in the future if it looks as as though they are regular late payers. even if it's untrue, lots of people will just believe the online record and not ask.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Aug 23, 2015 17:35:16 GMT
Andy, are there likely to be any more aircraft loans in the forseeable future? I'd much rather be investing in those than bundled SME loans (or even shipping containers!)
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Post by meledor on Aug 23, 2015 18:22:13 GMT
You'll find that the Caravan loan currently shows as having the payment due on 16/9/2015 as a "future" payment even though it was a week ago. Naughty boss, I suppose...
A week ago? Are you in a time machine?
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Post by meledor on Aug 23, 2015 18:29:56 GMT
Andy, are there likely to be any more aircraft loans in the forseeable future? I'd much rather be investing in those than bundled SME loans (or even shipping containers!)
Me too. In my opinion and in general terms you can't beat aircraft loans for the level of security offered.
I suspect the answer to your question depends on getting the underwriting sorted as well as launching Ablrate in Singapore and Australia (which doesn't seem to have happened yet) which should reduce the level of underwriting required.
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Post by ablrateandy on Aug 23, 2015 18:30:05 GMT
james - 16Sep is three weeks away in my timezone?! SteveT Yes - the platform wants to focus on aircraft loans but that depends on critical mass, which we are currently jump-starting. It's a slow process but we have some good investor irons in the fire... and that's all I can say . @ everyoneelse - some of our loans are more like invoice financing. The containers is a good case. The buyer wants to buy containers for X from China. Our loans finance that purchase and we take security over the containers (which are individually numbered) and as he sells them we take security over the purchase contracts too. These contracts are on 30 day payment terms normally. On Transaction 1, he bought 50 and had 30 pre-sold. Those, as James identified are now lurking in Felixstowe and he has in fact sold the remaining 20 too - I will mail holders to this effect tomorrow. On the second transaction he had sold the 50 before we made the loan, so we have security over the containers and the purchase contract. In both cases, the purchase price covered all capital and interest payments. We may look at 7yr leasing contracts for containers at some point.... The JustLoans deal is a nice one for us. We aren't really specialists in SME lending so it makes sense to work with someone who is. Again, we are happy with the security underlying the transaction. The removal crates is an awesome business and throws off cash like nothing else. Generally, as an investor, it works to think like us : 1. Do we trust the borrower's business model? 2. Do we believe the cashflows? 3. If everything goes belly up, do we believe the security value and does it cover the capital either in toto or significantly? There's plenty of things that look great but don't meet every test... ie. we could have done a computer leasing contract at 15% with a good lessee... but if the good lessee had a problem, the value of the computers would be low because they depreciate rapidly. ---> not interesting to us.
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james
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Post by james on Aug 23, 2015 19:15:59 GMT
You'll find that the Caravan loan currently shows as having the payment due on 16/9/2015 as a "future" payment even though it was a week ago. Naughty boss, I suppose...
A week ago? Are you in a time machine?
Oops. Looking into the future too much...
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