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Post by oldnick on Feb 1, 2014 7:56:43 GMT
In some ways the late '80s crash actually worked in my favour, at the time I was in a joint equity property built by the local authority. The properties were meant to be outside the right to buy scheme as they were not technically council housing and not maintained by the council however after the 'nominal' rent on the half we didn't own reached the as much as was being paid on mortgages and it was discovered that the council had used the same rent increase formula for us as their regular properties a residents association was formed. Under threat of legal action from the residents the local authority was given the option of either significantly reducing the rent and giving us rebates or including the properties in the right to buy scheme and they chose the latter. The fall in property prices and the right to buy discount on the half I didn't own meant that overnight I went from -ve equity to +ve equity, owned me house outright and the savings in ground rent were more than the increase in my mortgage so I had money in my pocket. So we can probably all come up with a story about how we borrowed our way to a windfall thanks to past inflation, and this was my original point: we are wearing the shoe on the other foot now as lenders, and still making money in the present economic circumstances. But in the words of Neils Bohr "Prediction is difficult, especially about the future".
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Post by oldnick on Feb 1, 2014 8:04:52 GMT
Since 5yr loans from the 3 largest P2P providers repay capital as well as interest the outstanding loans will have reduced before any rate rise might make returns look less attractive. More than half of my AC loans repay capital at the end, and half of those are for 5 years.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Mar 11, 2014 15:25:00 GMT
Just heard that Mr Carney has said over the next 3 years it's likely interest to rise by 2 to 2.5%
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Post by oldnick on Mar 11, 2014 20:51:52 GMT
Just heard that Mr Carney has said over the next 3 years it's likely interest to rise by 2 to 2.5% Why would someone of his standing stick his neck out like that when financial forecasters has less hard data to base predictions on than the met office does? At least the weather has a predictable annual cycle, but we still get duff predictions of 'barbecue summers' and 'arctic winters'. Is Mr.Carney using anything more than the tried and tested weather forecasting technique of 'if it's raining now it probably won't be soon' and vice versa?
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jimbo
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Post by jimbo on Mar 11, 2014 21:20:34 GMT
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bugs4me
Member of DD Central
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Post by bugs4me on Mar 11, 2014 21:55:50 GMT
Agreed and don't forget to include those self proclaimed experts that make forecasts every January in the financial pages of the printed media. At the end of the year their predictions are normally way off the mark. Then the same bunch of experts make predictions for the following 12 months. Happens every year. Easy money for them - just call yourself an expert!!!
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Post by oldnick on Mar 11, 2014 22:09:54 GMT
Having consulted the Centre for Wealth Divination, or C WeaD as we cognosenti know it, which hangs outside my back door, I can make a confident prediction, based on all the latest indicators, that things will change in the short, medium and long term, with magnitudes ranging from insignificant to quite noticeably significant. For those prepared to subscribe to my minute by minute newsfeed there will be occasional updates as events inevitably diverge from previous predictions.
(Disclaimer: I have no financial knowledge worth sharing and you would be a complete fool to act on any information supplied by my newsfeed. Event can change in a most unpredictable manner going up and down, and sometimes sidewards.)
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j
Member of DD Central
Penguins are very misunderstood!
Posts: 2,188
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Post by j on Mar 11, 2014 22:20:48 GMT
Having consulted the Centre for Wealth Divination, or C WeaD as we cognosenti know it, which hangs outside my back door, I can make a confident prediction, based on all the latest indicators, that things will change in the short, medium and long term, with magnitudes ranging from insignificant to quite noticeably significant. For those prepared to subscribe to my minute by minute newsfeed there will be occasional updates as events inevitably diverge from previous predictions. (Disclaimer: I have no financial knowledge worth sharing and you would be a complete fool to act on any information supplied by my newsfeed. Event can change in a most unpredictable manner going up and down, and sometimes sidewards.) How much are you charging for this service? How do I subscribe? 
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Post by oldnick on Mar 11, 2014 22:50:48 GMT
Having consulted the Centre for Wealth Divination, or C WeaD as we cognosenti know it, which hangs outside my back door, I can make a confident prediction, based on all the latest indicators, that things will change in the short, medium and long term, with magnitudes ranging from insignificant to quite noticeably significant. For those prepared to subscribe to my minute by minute newsfeed there will be occasional updates as events inevitably diverge from previous predictions. (Disclaimer: I have no financial knowledge worth sharing and you would be a complete fool to act on any information supplied by my newsfeed. Event can change in a most unpredictable manner going up and down, and sometimes sidewards.) How much are you charging for this service? How do I subscribe? Thank the Lord! There really is one born every minute. Minimum sign up period is five years, during which time, if you follow my guidance, you will have an interesting time and learn a lot about life, principally how to get by on a paupers income. Now how much money do you have at the moment?
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Mar 12, 2014 0:03:52 GMT
Kind of agree with the general flow of this discussion, hostage to fortune, he's about to become a victim of circumstances etc. I see him as expending his reputation in the hope that it will move the circumstances, give that little bit of extra confidence to a nervous market. In others words this maybe a self-fulfilling prophecy. If it goes wrong they'll be excuses, if it goes his way he'll be fated as one of the great.
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Post by oldnick on Mar 12, 2014 20:26:04 GMT
Kind of agree with the general flow of this discussion, hostage to fortune, he's about to become a victim of circumstances etc. I see him as expending his reputation in the hope that it will move the circumstances, give that little bit of extra confidence to a nervous market. In others words this maybe a self-fulfilling prophecy. If it goes wrong they'll be excuses, if it goes his way he'll be fated as one of the great. I can't help admiring the financial crash protective equipment your avatar is sporting. I hope it extends to the nether regions.
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j
Member of DD Central
Penguins are very misunderstood!
Posts: 2,188
Likes: 540
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Post by j on Mar 12, 2014 22:06:24 GMT
Kind of agree with the general flow of this discussion, hostage to fortune, he's about to become a victim of circumstances etc. I see him as expending his reputation in the hope that it will move the circumstances, give that little bit of extra confidence to a nervous market. In others words this maybe a self-fulfilling prophecy. If it goes wrong they'll be excuses, if it goes his way he'll be fated as one of the great. I can't help admiring the financial crash protective equipment your avatar is sporting. I hope it extends to the nether regions. That comment deserves a 
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Mar 13, 2014 11:11:00 GMT
Kind of agree with the general flow of this discussion, hostage to fortune, he's about to become a victim of circumstances etc. I see him as expending his reputation in the hope that it will move the circumstances, give that little bit of extra confidence to a nervous market. In others words this maybe a self-fulfilling prophecy. If it goes wrong they'll be excuses, if it goes his way he'll be fated as one of the great. I can't help admiring the financial crash protective equipment your avatar is sporting. I hope it extends to the nether regions. That really made me laugh
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Post by cautious on Mar 21, 2014 10:22:40 GMT
From 'This is money' website today
'Inflationary pressures from lack of slack in the economy could mean interest rates have to be hiked sooner than anticipated, says Bank rate setter Martin Weale. He estimates there is just 0.9% spare capacity in the economy, setting him at odds with the Bank which last month put it at 1.0-1.5%. When this slack disappears, inflation is likely to be triggered and have to be combated with a rate hike. '
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Post by davee39 on Mar 21, 2014 11:55:51 GMT
The US Fed has indicated a likely rise in US rates around May 2015. The BOE should be planning a 0.25% rise this autumn, but they will probably just go with a split vote until after the election. High street rates should start to increase though. As Funding for Lending dries up, the pensioner bond soaks up cash and the government stokes a house price boom ahead of the election, savers cash might start to seem attractive again. The P2P ISA, together with the regulatory comfort blanket and better P2P marketing might also lead to a sharp increase in demand for P2P, further depriving the banks of ultra cheap cash.
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