ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Feb 4, 2016 20:13:11 GMT
Ignore the pyramid, that was from the original concept which was binned before it was ever used. Current system is Below 1m - loan divided by number of prebidders to give min amount, every one below that gets what they asked for, difference between what they would have got & what they wanted redistributed amongst everyone else, and so on. SS have said they try not to have an odd amount so they will do a bit of rounding and put anything remaining on the SM at launch (as per spiral example) Above 1m - as Pots & the wookie (is that a band?) said - if under prefunded everyopne gets what they ask for, over subscribed everyone gets an equal percentage of their prefund eg if loan is £1m, prefund is £2.5m everyone gets 40% of ehat they ask for. However, because of gaming the max anyone can prefund is their total loan book plus available cash balance with a min threshold of £10k eg if you had £5k invested & £3k cash you could prebid £10k, if you had £15k invested & £0 cash you could prebid £15k. (Was it ever clarified if this max was per loan or for total pipeline?) There were also prebid limits based on loan size which I believe are still in effect but I cant find what they are max £20k was one |
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 4, 2016 22:37:42 GMT
However, because of gaming the max anyone can prefund is their total loan book plus available cash balance with a min threshold of £10k eg if you had £5k invested & £3k cash you could prebid £10k, if you had £15k invested & £0 cash you could prebid £15k. (Was it ever clarified if this max was per loan or for total pipeline?) There were also prebid limits based on loan size which I believe are still in effect but I cant find what they are max £20k was one I think it is per loan, because my drop-down list for every loan goes as high as my total investment. (My account is over £10k.) I expect that people with balances below £10k have drop-down options that go up to £10k on every pipeline loan. I suspect the old pre-funding limits have been superseded by the new system of allocation on sub-£1M loans and the limit based on account balances for larger loans. This sort of info should be readily available on the website, but I'm afraid SS are well behind in updating the website with such niceties. Other bits of out-of-date info in the website include no mention that a lot of the loans being sold on the SM were written with Ts&Cs very different from the Ts&Cs shown on the website, and the 'Stress Test' example for the Provision Fund which is no longer appropriate because the numbers have changed since it was first added to the website. (SS have been told about the latter multiple times but have not updated it.)
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Feb 4, 2016 22:52:51 GMT
However, because of gaming the max anyone can prefund is their total loan book plus available cash balance with a min threshold of £10k eg if you had £5k invested & £3k cash you could prebid £10k, if you had £15k invested & £0 cash you could prebid £15k. (Was it ever clarified if this max was per loan or for total pipeline?) There were also prebid limits based on loan size which I believe are still in effect but I cant find what they are max £20k was one I think it is per loan, because my drop-down list for every loan goes as high as my total investment. (My account is over £10k.) I expect that people with balances below £10k have drop-down options that go up to £10k on every pipeline loan. I suspect the old pre-funding limits have been superseded by the new system of allocation on sub-£1M loans and the limit based on account balances for larger loans. This sort of info should be readily available on the website, but I'm afraid SS are well behind in updating the website with such niceties. Other bits of out-of-date info in the website include no mention that a lot of the loans being sold on the SM were written with Ts&Cs very different from the Ts&Cs shown on the website, and the 'Stress Test' example for the Provision Fund which is no longer appropriate because the numbers have changed since it was first added to the website. (SS have been told about the latter multiple times but have not updated it.) Not sure about the bid limits being superseded as SS mention them as still applying. So max bid would still be £20k on small loans. Irrelevant currently I accept p2pindependentforum.com/post/79995/thread
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jamesc
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Post by jamesc on Feb 12, 2016 15:29:17 GMT
I am trying to gauge the potential demand for the Bedford loans by very a rough guesstimate using funding allocations and activity in the SM and assuming most people have approx. the same in each loan. By the way I am probably way out but have to start somewhere and with others input we might be able to refine it. The two recent loans if you divide total loan by allocation you get around 1600-1700 investors assuming some of those wanted less than what was allocated lets say there are 2000 active investors who are likely to subscribe. Then we need to guess what sort of allocation they all want, I said the first 600 less than £500, the next 600 between £500 and £1000, the next 600 between £1000 and £5000, then between £5000 and £25000 150 investors and finally 50 investors over £25,000. Then had to guess at the mean investment for each group £300 for the first, £800 for the second, £3500 for the third, £10,000 for the fourth and, £50,000 for the last. Using those assumptions which are highly speculative you come out to a prefunding pool of very approximately £6.75Mln. If this is anywhere near correct then what you prefund is what you will get in allocations. This also assumes that everyone treats this as one loan and not four separate loans i.e. my assumption that most people have approximately the same in each loan holds good and most people pre fund a quarter of their normal desired loan size into each trance. Although I think people will air on more than a quarter in each. Personally I think £6.75mln pre fund is on the high side given pre Christmas pre funding pools were more like £3mln, when PBL73 went live there was way over a £1mln left unfunded although it only took a few days to get taken up.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 12, 2016 19:59:49 GMT
Using those assumptions which are highly speculative you come out to a prefunding pool of very approximately £6.75Mln. This also assumes that everyone treats this as one loan and not four separate loans...
Personally I think £6.75mln pre fund is on the high side given pre Christmas pre funding pools were more like £3mln... The assumptions seem reasonable to me, as does the result. I expect the pre-fund to be noticeably higher than pre-Christmas because there's been quite a drought since then and nearly £3M of repayments. If you include interest, the total would exceed £4M. The aspect that's hard to know the effect of is the division of this loan into four tranches. SS have said that as of a few days ago they thought this loan would be over-funded. I suspect that may be the result of people initially looking at this as four separate loans. When I first set my pre-funding, I didn't realise all four tranches would be going live at once, so I treated each as an individual loan, expecting to get allocated less than I asked for, but figuring that if I got more than I wanted on the first to go live I could reduce my pre-funding on the later tranches. Now that I think I understand how it's actually going to happen, I'm guessing that it won't be over-funded by much, if at all, so I'm not going to ask for more than I really want. If I am prorated back, I'll increase my pre-funding for the Herts. business park that SS think will be released in a week or so. The net result for me is that I've reduced my Bedfordshire pre-funding significantly in the past couple of days. If I'm not untypical -- and I haven't a clue whether I am or not -- then the over-funding SS saw before might evaporate by the time these loans go live. And if the unknowns regarding how the property and the valuation will be divided among the tranches, and how all of that will affect potential security values and repayments, aren't spelled out clearly in the documentation when that finally arrives then I'll be less enthusiastic about investing in this group of loans and probably reduce my pre-funding even more. Considering that there's a healthy looking pipeline at the moment, and the possibility that the SM could become a bit less liquid if the pipeline were to be large enough to satisfy the current pent-up demand, there's a lot less incentive now to buy into a loan first and then decide whether I want to keep it than there was before Christmas. That will make me more cautious with my pre-funding requests. And I don't expect I'll be the only one who's thinking like this.
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nick
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Post by nick on Feb 15, 2016 10:45:00 GMT
I'm trying to get a handle on likely allocations for the farm land loan tranches going live on Wednesday. Looking at some the previous large loan launches pre Xmas and considering the draught since, I estimate a pre-funding loan coverage of 90%-120%, ie an allocation of 90%-100% (with some leftover). I'm also trying to gauge how much liquidity there will be in existing loans post launch as I want to rebalance some of my portfolio. I'm aware many will probably be doing the same so I'm unsure how easy it will be to sell down existing loan parts to fund the new loans within the 48 hr time limit.
Any views on:
1) Pre-funding loan coverage
2) Difficulty in selling down other existing loan parts post launch - I assume that the overdue loans may be slow to sell is it reasonable to expect loans with 100+ days to maturity to readily sell. Obviously will depend on extent of people re-balancing
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cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
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Post by cooling_dude on Feb 15, 2016 10:49:24 GMT
I'm trying to get a handle on likely allocations for the farm land loan tranches going live on Wednesday. Looking at some the previous large loan launches pre Xmas and considering the draught since, I estimate a pre-funding loan coverage of 90%-120%, ie an allocation of 90%-100% (with some leftover). I'm also trying to gauge how much liquidity there will be in existing loans post launch as I want to rebalance some of my portfolio. I'm aware many will probably be doing the same so I'm unsure how easy it will be to sell down existing loan parts to fund the new loans within the 48 hr time limit. Any views on: 1) Pre-funding loan coverage 2) Difficulty in selling down other existing loan parts post launch - I assume that the overdue loans may be slow to sell is it reasonable to expect loans with 100+ days to maturity to readily sell. Obviously will depend on extent of people re-balancing I've got a feeling that the allocation is going to be less than you expect. savingstream have already provided some warning that demand is high (Quote below taken from here)
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Feb 15, 2016 10:54:29 GMT
I suspect I will not get even my modest requirements.
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Post by xyon100 on Feb 15, 2016 12:25:52 GMT
I have to say that this all goes over my head, mostly. I've prefunded far more than I need and should I get it, I'll deal with that issue if it happens. Does this make me bad or is the exercise pointless anyway?
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Feb 15, 2016 12:34:15 GMT
I have to say that this all goes over my head, mostly. I've prefunded far more than I need and should I get it, I'll deal with that issue if it happens. Does this make me bad or is the exercise pointless anyway? No you are not bad, just a necessary evil.  I am bidding what I aim to get and probably will fall short, so rely on people like yourself to top up on the SM.
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cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
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Post by cooling_dude on Feb 15, 2016 12:38:47 GMT
I have to say that this all goes over my head, mostly. I've prefunded far more than I need and should I get it, I'll deal with that issue if it happens. Does this make me bad or is the exercise pointless anyway? Your not a bad person; I think most of us are gaming the system  . Your OK with the SM being so liquid ATM; but as these larger pipeline loans come through you might want to be a bit tad more cautious. However, the way I read it is that SS are happy for you to resolve negative balances via the SM (as they would do automatically anyway if you don’t deposit the amount). Your only penalty is that you don’t get no interest while it’s sitting in the SM (which I presume goes to SS).
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Feb 15, 2016 13:14:19 GMT
I think most of us is gaming the system SS did kinda invite that, by saying "Oooh, there's LOADS of money on the prefund.", given that it's over £1m, so into the %age allocation. Woops, better just up my pre-fund so I get what I want - which'll further increase the total pre-fund, etc etc, vicious circle...
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Feb 15, 2016 13:34:12 GMT
savingstream, you floated the suggestion late last week that you might switch to filling ALL new loans "bottom up", not just those below £1m. This met with mixed reactions (unsurprisingly). Can you please confirm (before these 4 loans are launched) what allocation process you have decided to use? Many thanks.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Feb 15, 2016 16:36:18 GMT
There was a half-way suggestion that they could at least fill the first million bottom up .. same as they would if the total loan was less than a million. Personally I'd 'bottom up' the whole thing, else it is gaming central.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 15, 2016 18:19:01 GMT
There was a half-way suggestion that they could at least fill the first million bottom up .. same as they would if the total loan was less than a million. Personally I'd 'bottom up' the whole thing, else it is gaming central. I really think savingstream need to decide what allocation method they're going to use before the close of business tomorrow (Tuesday) -- and tell us! IMHO it's just not on to change the allocation rules without informing investors in advance. To do otherwise would give the impression that SS are running their business 'by the seat of the pants' -- and that's not the right impression to be making, especially when they're in process of trying to obtain full FCA permission.
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I am bidding what I aim to get and probably will fall short, so rely on people like yourself to top up on the SM.
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