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Post by davee39 on Feb 12, 2014 17:03:32 GMT
I've gradually built up my P2P portfolio to just over 30% of my total investments and the rest, apart from a little cash, is invested in mainly UK funds from the Hargreaves Lansdown Wealth 150 list. Funds in smaller and medium sized concerns are doing well but my emerging markets funds, after initial gains and occasional small rallies, are set on a determinedly downward path! I did buy these for the longer term but am getting twitchy; should I cut my losses now? I'm getting less and less convinced by all the hype around MINT economies, etc. Any views? My investment funds are from the same place as yours, I have gone for income, spread across Bonds, UK Income, UK Smaller Companies, Global, Asian and Emerging markets. Overall The income is around 4% and I am continuing to add to the mix each month. My Emerging Markets only amount to 7% of my total investments & I am sticking with them. On a 5 year view anything can happen (Remember the Gold Enthusiasts). I am also happy to stick with HL despite the re-shuffle of fees because of their excellent service.
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Post by Duane Dibley on Feb 12, 2014 17:16:02 GMT
Funds in smaller and medium sized concerns are doing well but my emerging markets funds, after initial gains and occasional small rallies, are set on a determinedly downward path! I did buy these for the longer term but am getting twitchy; should I cut my losses now? Ah the classic 'Buy High Sell Low' philosophy. Always popular. Personally as the cost of emerging markets has been coming down I've been buying more. Some way to go yet I think but each to their own.
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jimbo
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Post by jimbo on Feb 12, 2014 22:03:00 GMT
For the record I'm going to state here that I'm one of those who is still a Gold enthusiast. ;-)
The current EM rumblings have the potential to turn into a really ugly debt crisis. If you start researching the side effects of the US QE program and the financial repression of interest rates we've been living under since 2008, you'll start to get a sense of just how much hot money has borrowed cheap US Dollars and put them to work in EM Markets. A consequence of his has been boom times in the ASEAN countries, which has led to some seriously reckless lending practices. If you start researching the Chinese Shadow Banking system and how it operates, it leaves a sense of how ugly the crisis could become.
It's important to bear in mind that the sudden reversal of money flows into EM has been caused by the Fed's tapering of QE. I suspect this will continue for the immediate future, but that it will end up causing such a huge EM crisis that this will result in blowback on the US economy, forcing the Fed to reverse the taper in an attempt to calm the waters.
Personally, I reckon the current rocky ride in EM will get worse in the short term. This is not a recommendation to sell; it's just an opinion. However, it is a suggestion to maybe do some homework.
There are guys covering this such as John Mauldin, Grant Williams and Jesse Colombo, and I think it's well worth reading what they write.
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bugs4me
Member of DD Central
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Post by bugs4me on Feb 12, 2014 22:36:05 GMT
I've gradually built up my P2P portfolio to just over 30% of my total investments and the rest, apart from a little cash, is invested in mainly UK funds from the Hargreaves Lansdown Wealth 150 list. Funds in smaller and medium sized concerns are doing well but my emerging markets funds, after initial gains and occasional small rallies, are set on a determinedly downward path! I did buy these for the longer term but am getting twitchy; should I cut my losses now? I'm getting less and less convinced by all the hype around MINT economies, etc. Any views? Much of the hype about any market or stock is generated by a minority of individuals that already have an interest and therefore will like to see things rise so they can get out on a high. Many of the EM's are driven by cheap money generated by QE looking for a home which is slowly drying up from the USA. It's not that long ago that a well respected analyst stated that the price of Apple shares could and should be in the region of US$1,000. At the time they were already at their highest of US$500 plus. It later transpired that his company had a more than respectable holding in Apple and obviously in their interests to drive the price higher with one of those famous 'buy' recommendations from the experts. Now what is the stock price of Apple today? Whilst I confess to listening to 'experts', many of them do in fact have a fairly short shelf life so I prefer to do as much in depth research myself. My research is not always accurate of course but it makes me more comfortable. I often think we've got more experts on this forum than many of those 'high-five' merchants sitting behind a desk somewhere gazing at a monitor all day. At least around here when a new P2P/P2B opens up for business it's over to the T&C's, then background checks, then questions. All fair game as they are asking for lenders funds to make them profitable and finance somewhere down the line their personal lifestyle at some point. Many of them have a good idea but it fails to get off the ground as setting up a P2P/P2B sounds easy so they simply rush it. Others are more structured before launch and they are worthy of at least some toe dipping. So my tuppence worth is do as much research as you can. By all means listen to input especially if it is unbiased. Good luck with whatever decision you make.
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Post by yorkshireman on Feb 13, 2014 0:06:39 GMT
For the record I'm going to state here that I'm one of those who is still a Gold enthusiast. ;-) The current EM rumblings have the potential to turn into a really ugly debt crisis. If you start researching the side effects of the US QE program and the financial repression of interest rates we've been living under since 2008, you'll start to get a sense of just how much hot money has borrowed cheap US Dollars and put them to work in EM Markets. A consequence of his has been boom times in the ASEAN countries, which has led to some seriously reckless lending practices. If you start researching the Chinese Shadow Banking system and how it operates, it leaves a sense of how ugly the crisis could become. It's important to bear in mind that the sudden reversal of money flows into EM has been caused by the Fed's tapering of QE. I suspect this will continue for the immediate future, but that it will end up causing such a huge EM crisis that this will result in blowback on the US economy, forcing the Fed to reverse the taper in an attempt to calm the waters. Personally, I reckon the current rocky ride in EM will get worse in the short term. This is not a recommendation to sell; it's just an opinion. However, it is a suggestion to maybe do some homework. There are guys covering this such as John Mauldin, Grant Williams and Jesse Colombo, and I think it's well worth reading what they write. Spot on Jimbo, needless to say I am also a gold enthusiast!
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Feb 13, 2014 0:42:14 GMT
I would not touch gold with a bargepole. It has no fundamental value, and the bringing into use of marginal sources of production will prevent any upside in the long run.
Emerging markets are hard to call. On a 20 year view I believe they are the best bet, but there will be turbulence in the short term. Perhaps not a buy at the moment, but trying to call the bottom (or the top) of the market is a mug's game.
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jimbo
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Post by jimbo on Feb 13, 2014 1:04:30 GMT
I would not touch gold with a bargepole. It has no fundamental value, and the bringing into use of marginal sources of production will prevent any upside in the long run. Emerging markets are hard to call. On a 20 year view I believe they are the best bet, but there will be turbulence in the short term. Perhaps not a buy at the moment, but trying to call the bottom (or the top) of the market is a mug's game. Marginal sources of Production have been getting put on ice at quite a rate over the last 12 months due to falls in the Gold price rendering them uneconomic. A number of mining companies have scrapped projects or put them on care and maintenance. Granted, this part of the cycle may have further to play out, but it doesn't exactly mean supply of the metal will be swelling in the near future. Also, try telling Indian and Chinese people that Gold has no fundamental value, and watch how they react. As a metal, it does not corrode and it's value makes it very easy to hide or transport significant wealth. It also cannot be conjured into existance at a tap of a keyboard by the West's central banks. I agree that trying to call the top or bottom of a market is a mugs game, but generally, if the majority appear to be bullish (and investment bulletin boards will soon tell you this) it's reasonable to deduce that some kind of top is approaching as everybody is in and there will be few other buyers. Similarly, if the end of the World is nigh and the majority appear to be terrified, then maybe selling pressure is exhausted and a bottom is approaching. It will be pure luck if you get it spot on, but if you can spot a likely inflexion point then I think it makes sense to buy (or sell) ahead of it. Regarding what's currently going on in the EM zone, my own opinion (for what it's worth) is that there are too many market advisors, etc, calling it out to be a buying opportunity, whereas it has the potential to turn into an EM credit crunch with an ensuing fallout comparable to what hit the West in late 2008. Personally, I'd be an EM buyer off the back of any serious ugliness, but I wouldn't go near them right now...
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Post by valerieb on Feb 14, 2014 23:28:53 GMT
Thanks for all your comments on EM. I definitely need to do some further research; ironically (and stupidly), I seem to spend far longer trying to decide at what rate to place my £20 FC bid than I do examining my more significant investments. A lot of the pundits are talking up EM, undervalued, good time to increase investment, QE tapering not so significant, avoid these countries but others promising etc, etc. I think rates will fall further in the short term so I've reduced my holding to about 4% and will stick with that, partly because the fund manager is very experienced in the zone and well- regarded and the fund is fairly widely spread with no exposure to India and not too much with China. Time will tell..........
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bugs4me
Member of DD Central
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Post by bugs4me on Feb 15, 2014 10:24:51 GMT
I would not touch gold with a bargepole. It has no fundamental value, and the bringing into use of marginal sources of production will prevent any upside in the long run. Emerging markets are hard to call. On a 20 year view I believe they are the best bet, but there will be turbulence in the short term. Perhaps not a buy at the moment, but trying to call the bottom (or the top) of the market is a mug's game. Regarding what's currently going on in the EM zone, my own opinion (for what it's worth) is that there are too many market advisors, etc, calling it out to be a buying opportunity, whereas it has the potential to turn into an EM credit crunch with an ensuing fallout comparable to what hit the West in late 2008. Personally, I'd be an EM buyer off the back of any serious ugliness, but I wouldn't go near them right now... Agree with that sentiment jimbo, there are 'experts' everywhere. Those same experts predict the stocks to buy on 1st January. Then the results of their predictions are published year end. Some get it right but many do not. Then those self appointed experts start again the following day. If you'd followed their advice then you would often loose money. Do your own research and spend time on it.
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Post by cautious on Feb 15, 2014 12:14:28 GMT
Received my bond maturity letter in the post this morning that triggered this discussion thread......1.5% is their offer.....yeah right. I looked back through my first papers for this cash and on Dec 1st 2008 I fixed for 1Yr at 5.46% monthly interest.....how spoilt we were. Incidentally just toe-dipped into Wellesley, opened three TSB current accounts and about to apply for a second Santander 123 account...what a palaver!
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Feb 15, 2014 14:01:13 GMT
I would not touch gold with a bargepole. It has no fundamental value Actually it's used all over the place in electronic contacts, because it doesn't corrode. In minute quantities mind, because it spreads so thinly without falling apart, so as things stand supply can very easily meet industrial demand, so the your essential point is fair enough, but I just don't like gold to get this bad rap, don't really know why but anyway Steve
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Post by davee39 on Feb 15, 2014 14:29:47 GMT
Even better its used as an excuse by salesmen at D*x*ns/C**r*s to sell HDMI leads for £34.99 because they have gold plated connectors, when perfectly satisfactory leads should cost about £4.99.
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mikeb
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Post by mikeb on Feb 15, 2014 19:29:00 GMT
Even better its used as an excuse by salesmen at D*x*ns/C**r*s to sell HDMI leads for £34.99 because they have gold plated connectors, when perfectly satisfactory leads should cost about £4.99. Don't forget your gold-plated optical interconnects. Not a joke, they exist ... for the clueless and overpaid to buy.
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Post by uncletone on Feb 15, 2014 19:51:04 GMT
Takes me back to a job I once held selling computers and their kit: loved selling SCSI cables. Either gave a SCSI cable away to clinch a computer sale, or sold them at forty quid each. Buying in price was three pounds.  |
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 16, 2014 2:40:13 GMT
I also hold shares in one FT100 company with an IRR of just under 15%, not very sensible I know, but I am reluctant to sell and trigger a large CGT liability and I do have confidence in the direction in which the company is going. If your holding is more than you really want to have, you don't have to sell it all at once. And if you haven't already used up your £10+k tax-free CG allowance you can sell some in the next six weeks to use that and avoid the CG Tax on that sale.
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