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Post by Butch Cassidy on Oct 22, 2015 13:59:16 GMT
Bondora now allows all red 60+ days overdue/defaulted loans to be listed on the SM - I have listed all mine, mostly 18 months+ into default, between -50 & -75% discounts and shifted a few hundred Euros worth in a couple of hours. Good Luck to the buyers, I hope the recovery goes well but I'm glad to see the back of them! Previously my expectations for recovery was a single figure % so I see anything between 25 & 50 cents/Euro as a good/great result.
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kermie
Member of DD Central
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Likes: 462
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Post by kermie on Oct 22, 2015 15:49:18 GMT
Thanks for the heads-up on that Butch Cassidy - this will hopefully let me get out of Bondora earlier than I'd planned. |
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Post by xyon100 on Oct 23, 2015 5:35:48 GMT
Yea, I also want out. I put in a couple of thousand just to see how it goes and I don't like how it goes. Logged on yesterday to see a new page layout and my "account value" has dropped from 2303 to 2282 and for the life of me I cannot see why. Too complicated to get the best results, too fiddly and as far as I can see, no clean and simple way to head for the door. Do I really have to list all those five Euro loans individually?!
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Post by reeknralf on Oct 23, 2015 7:49:27 GMT
Bondora now allows all red 60+ days overdue/defaulted loans to be listed on the SM - I have listed all mine, mostly 18 months+ into default, between -50 & -75% discounts and shifted a few hundred Euros worth in a couple of hours. Good Luck to the buyers, I hope the recovery goes well but I'm glad to see the back of them! Previously my expectations for recovery was a single figure % so I see anything between 25 & 50 cents/Euro as a good/great result. It could be a bunch of naive optimists buying your loans, but my guess is that it's people who know how to value these loans cherry picking. How did you arrive at 'single figure %'? I've looked online, but not found any relevant data on recovery. Not surprising as it's commercially sensitive. I recall Bondora using 27%, but even if that's a reasonable guess, I've still no idea on the relative values of an Estonia stage 4 (debt recovery on previous loans suggests up to 100%) and a Slovakian stage 1 (probably something approaching zero). I want out as much as anyone, but this sounds to me like an opportunity for some people in the know to make some easy money as the herd rushes for the exit.
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Post by Butch Cassidy on Oct 23, 2015 9:26:05 GMT
My recovery so far, inc any paid before defaulting (Finland skewed by one full recovery against a very small total part of my portfolio);
Estonia - 9%; Spain - 2%; Finland - 16% (excluding the 1 full would be 3%)
Vast majority are over 18 months into default already but I was fairly harsh on any overdues & took some 35-50% losses to sell many before they actually defaulted. Quite a few have already been through stages 1-4 & have now returned to stage 1. Poor communication has also become the norm, so don't expect any honest appraisal of the default position to be forthcoming anytime soon. There are no hard & fast rule but a useful rule of thumb is nothing much happens for the first 12 months & then 3-4 months after bailiffs have been sent Estonians usually pay something, Finnish less likely, Spanish very unlikely & Slovakian no chance!
Previous recovery levels of 100+% were when all the loans were Estonian & they were relatively few in number so both human & financial resources could cope with the admin required, it has got progressively worse as Bondora has grown; defaulted loans used to get semi-regular updates, some actually quite detailed, about what actions & responses had been taken by bailiffs etc. but Bondora has now not only stopped this but also removed the previous information as well. Since the big foreign expansion push of nearly 18 months ago both loan volumes & defaults have mushroomed & the required resources to process them just can't keep pace, together with having to quickly learn about foreign borrowers, language, courts & default procedures I can see recovery levels being pitifully low for years to come & any recovery at all in those markets should be treated as a bonus.
They have also now realised this and given up any responsibility for recovery (having now outsourced it at lenders expense), no apology for foreign mistakes & no further interest in dealing with any recovery process, simply outsource it to DRA’s & wash their hands - firms that behave in this way are not to be trusted IMO. Anyone who wants to “make easy money” out of these defaults as you put it are welcome to try & will fully deserve anything they get for taking such a large risk. That is the market at work; I value them at marginally above zero but if a buyer is willing to pay 25-50c/Euro because they value them higher (or perhaps want to crystalise a tax loss etc) we are both happy.
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carlos
I'm short Bondora and long p2p.
Posts: 104
Likes: 21
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Post by carlos on Oct 24, 2015 11:49:25 GMT
Yea, I also want out. I put in a couple of thousand just to see how it goes and I don't like how it goes. Logged on yesterday to see a new page layout and my "account value" has dropped from 2303 to 2282 and for the life of me I cannot see why. Too complicated to get the best results, too fiddly and as far as I can see, no clean and simple way to head for the door. Do I really have to list all those five Euro loans individually?! I have too experienced sudden day-over-day decreases in portfolio value (even in tens or hundreds of euro). I haven't been able to identify why... I have now even printed daily cash flow from account-statement (go to data export) so I can go through all transactions that day. So I hope I can shed some light on it... I hope Bondora is not cheating us..
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JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
Posts: 1,323
Likes: 897
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Post by JamesFrance on Oct 24, 2015 12:00:33 GMT
I think they deduct what they call Overdue Principal to arrive at their value amount.
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Post by xyon100 on Oct 25, 2015 7:28:18 GMT
Yea, I also want out. I put in a couple of thousand just to see how it goes and I don't like how it goes. Logged on yesterday to see a new page layout and my "account value" has dropped from 2303 to 2282 and for the life of me I cannot see why. Too complicated to get the best results, too fiddly and as far as I can see, no clean and simple way to head for the door. Do I really have to list all those five Euro loans individually?! I have too experienced sudden day-over-day decreases in portfolio value (even in tens or hundreds of euro). I haven't been able to identify why... I have now even printed daily cash flow from account-statement (go to data export) so I can go through all transactions that day. So I hope I can shed some light on it... I hope Bondora is not cheating us.. All I know is the page layout changed and my total account value dropped while my displayed net return did not change. Something not right there.
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Post by xyon100 on Oct 27, 2015 14:34:00 GMT
Not only has my account value dropped, now my return has as well. I suppose that could be considered consistent?  |
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carlos
I'm short Bondora and long p2p.
Posts: 104
Likes: 21
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Post by carlos on Oct 28, 2015 22:17:57 GMT
Hello, you can now find Defaulted Loans Market at http://Web-Site up for sale, link disabled/market-defaulted.php Prediction market in action  We can now see where is the bottom ... I'm happy to see bets for recovery...  Please share the link on your blogs, its appreciated... |
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JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
Posts: 1,323
Likes: 897
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Post by JamesFrance on Oct 29, 2015 7:57:38 GMT
Thankyou Carlos, I bookmarked it.
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duck
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,864
Likes: 6,898
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Post by duck on Oct 29, 2015 8:15:09 GMT
Thankyou Carlos, I bookmarked it. Ditto!
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Post by coolrunning on Oct 29, 2015 21:25:24 GMT
Thanks Carlos
I always have your site open on a browser tab.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2015 14:15:51 GMT
Thank you Carlos, this is what I needed
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We can now see where is the bottom ... I'm happy to see bets for recovery... 
