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Post by ramses505 on Nov 2, 2015 15:22:51 GMT
Not sure all below applies to all three of these loans but; I have holdings in all these loans and am getting to the stage where I would be prepared to liquidate on a lot less than par basis. I am wondering if there is a way that these securities be offered (individually of course) on a sealed bid basis to any interested parties and then decide if there is enough interest from the investors at the offer prices to proceed. Sealed bids are not normally binding to the seller but would give us an idea of what we could take and walk away. I have gone along with AC and left them to manage the liquidation process without prodding or complaining but I am beginning to wonder what is likely to bring these loans to a conclusion in any kind of reasonable time frame. We are a year in with most of these (I think) and I would be happy to take a reasonable loss (including all interest if that is required) to move on from these. None of this is meant as a criticism of AC but I would be interested to know just how many investors would see this the same way. There comes a point with some investments where you are better off realising your loses and I think, for me, that pint has probably arrived.
Just my $0.02
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on Nov 2, 2015 15:27:31 GMT
that pint has probably arrived. A bit too early for me 
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Post by yorkshireman on Nov 2, 2015 15:27:57 GMT
Not sure all below applies to all three of these loans but; I have holdings in all these loans and am getting to the stage where I would be prepared to liquidate on a lot less than par basis. I am wondering if there is a way that these securities be offered (individually of course) on a sealed bid basis to any interested parties and then decide if there is enough interest from the investors at the offer prices to proceed. Sealed bids are not normally binding to the seller but would give us an idea of what we could take and walk away. I have gone along with AC and left them to manage the liquidation process without prodding or complaining but I am beginning to wonder what is likely to bring these loans to a conclusion in any kind of reasonable time frame. We are a year in with most of these (I think) and I would be happy to take a reasonable loss (including all interest if that is required) to move on from these. None of this is meant as a criticism of AC but I would be interested to know just how many investors would see this the same way. There comes a point with some investments where you are better off realising your loses and I think, for me, that pint has probably arrived. Just my $0.02 I’m pleased to see that you work to 2 decimal places unlike AC!
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ianj
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Post by ianj on Nov 2, 2015 15:39:05 GMT
....... There comes a point with some investments where you are better off realising your loses and I think, for me, that pint has probably arrived. I would be more than happy to exchange my holdings in these loans for a pint. A foaming glass of the tastiest bitter can cost in excess of £4 in this part of the world, giving a more than satisfactory return on the £1 invested in each of these three loans. 
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Post by mrclondon on Nov 2, 2015 18:03:01 GMT
I'd say it is totally impossible to establish what is currrent fair value for those three loans. Yes, we might be 12+ months into the recovery process, but that is far too soon to be able to even guess at the most likely outcome.
Ipswich - whilst it might be possible to come up with an implied value for the 1st charge security (assuming fully let by xmas as per last update), you then need to add on the value of the 2nd charge security (Epping)
Epping - the receivers haven't been able to survey the property yet ... so not possible to draw any conclusions about value.
Kent - the exact meaning of the planning rejection of 2014 still ambiguous and hence two different valuations could be attributed to the security. Receivers are about to invite offers which might throw some light on what others think.
We probably need another 6 to 12 months of work from the receivers on all three of these to be able to have an informed opinion on the fair value of loan.
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Post by ramses505 on Nov 3, 2015 15:47:45 GMT
I am regretting that 'pint' joke now !
My experience on other platforms with regards to failed loans leads me to think that a possible 24+ month liquidation, end to end (as you are suggesting), is a long one and probably too long to make a full recovery. With default interest being added there comes a point (see, my keyboard does work) when a full recovery becomes impossible and I am concerned (though I accept it is a fact of life) that not all parties involved have the same objectives. The administrators will need to be paid throughout the whole process and their charges will not be small or insignificant. I would like the option to realise my losses and move on, my assumptions about lost interest and opportunity costs inform that opinion for me but, I see that not all people share the feeling.
I would certainly be interested to know what the total amount owed on this loan is now if we only half way through a possible recovery.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Nov 3, 2015 16:06:37 GMT
I would like the option to realise my losses and move on, my assumptions about lost interest and opportunity costs inform that opinion for me but, I see that not all people share the feeling... I would have thought that your best action would be to persuade AC to allow distressed units to trade. As there is an extreme shortage of new loans now might be a good time to introduce the trading of bad loans. AC have indicated it is something they will consider.
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jo
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Post by jo on Nov 3, 2015 16:17:24 GMT
ramses505 Can't think why what you describe isn't available. Matching willing sellers with willing buyers via the magic of price discovery is the bedrock of reconciling participants' differing motivations/time-frames. I'm currently liquidating my duds on Bondora (selling 60+ lates has recently been made4 possible) at c-50%. I'm delighted every time one sells and I'm sure the buyer is the same. Synchronicity!
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niceguy37
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Post by niceguy37 on Nov 3, 2015 16:33:37 GMT
I would like the option to realise my losses and move on, my assumptions about lost interest and opportunity costs inform that opinion for me but, I see that not all people share the feeling... I would have thought that your best action would be to persuade AC to allow distressed units to trade. As there is an extreme shortage of new loans now might be a good time to introduce the trading of bad loans. AC have indicated it is something they will consider. We've got selling at a discount, so all we need is an agreed loud and hard to miss warning confirmation message that the buyer must agreed to before proceeding with a manual purchase, and we're good to go. It would mean some of the disgruntled lenders who've sold their liquid loans will now be able to finally exit, they'll finally be somewhat happy, and we'll hopefully remove some of the negativity from the forum. (I'm not saying that any negativity is justified or not - just that AC would do well to enable those who want to leave to do so.) And some lenders would welcome the opportunity to buy some of the stuck loans. How about it chris ?
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Post by chris on Nov 3, 2015 16:44:21 GMT
I would have thought that your best action would be to persuade AC to allow distressed units to trade. As there is an extreme shortage of new loans now might be a good time to introduce the trading of bad loans. AC have indicated it is something they will consider. We've got selling at a discount, so all we need is an agreed loud and hard to miss warning confirmation message that the buyer must agreed to before proceeding with a manual purchase, and we're good to go. It would mean some of the disgruntled lenders who've sold their liquid loans will now be able to finally exit, they'll finally be somewhat happy, and we'll hopefully remove some of the negativity from the forum. (I'm not saying that any negativity is justified or not - just that AC would do well to enable those who want to leave to do so.) And some lenders would welcome the opportunity to buy some of the stuck loans. How about it chris ? Not my call, the functionality is there to do this. Worth raising with the lender team though.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Nov 3, 2015 17:14:28 GMT
...all we need is an agreed loud and hard to miss warning confirmation message that the buyer must agreed to before proceeding with a manual purchase, and we're good to go. I agree that we need the warning you suggest, but I think that for deep discount selling it would be good if we could see the best buyer (smallest) discount as well as the best offer. Not my call, the functionality is there to do this. Worth raising with the lender team though. would be able to show the best bid, or is there a reason you wouldn't want to? is Dominic the best person to ping?
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ianj
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Post by ianj on Nov 3, 2015 18:01:39 GMT
We've got selling at a discount, so all we need is an agreed loud and hard to miss warning confirmation message that the buyer must agreed to before proceeding with a manual purchase, and we're good to go. It would mean some of the disgruntled lenders who've sold their liquid loans will now be able to finally exit, they'll finally be somewhat happy, and we'll hopefully remove some of the negativity from the forum. (I'm not saying that any negativity is justified or not - just that AC would do well to enable those who want to leave to do so.) And some lenders would welcome the opportunity to buy some of the stuck loans. How about it chris ? Not my call, the functionality is there to do this. Worth raising with the lender team though. I'm personally not surprised that AC hesitate to go down this route. From their perspective, is it really worth the inevitable negative PR when disgruntled lenders go to the press in order to pressurise the platform into compensating them for their losses when a recovery is not 100% successful? You see this type of pressure being applied all the time in the Sunday supplements . Then imagine the potential tabloid press front page, 'Fury of P2P lenders encouraged to invest in worthless loan' (tabloid press readers are only ever furious apparently). Yes, lenders can be warned , warned again, then made to sign in blood that they understand the risks, but when do the press allow facts to interfere with a good headline. Naturally this is a worst cases scenario, but as well as protecting the gullible from themselves, AC will surely be careful to do nothing that might leave their reputation tarnished. Besides, I doubt I'll be able to discount my holding in Ipswich, now <£1 following today’s capital repayment! 
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jo
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Post by jo on Nov 3, 2015 19:45:00 GMT
Not my call, the functionality is there to do this. Worth raising with the lender team though. I'm personally not surprised that AC hesitate to go down this route. From their perspective, is it really worth the inevitable negative PR when disgruntled lenders go to the press in order to pressurise the platform into compensating them for their losses when a recovery is not 100% successful? You see this type of pressure being applied all the time in the Sunday supplements . Then imagine the potential tabloid press front page, 'Fury of P2P lenders encouraged to invest in worthless loan' (tabloid press readers are only ever furious apparently). Yes, lenders can be warned , warned again, then made to sign in blood that they understand the risks, but when do the press allow facts to interfere with a good headline. Naturally this is a worst cases scenario, but as well as protecting the gullible from themselves, AC will surely be careful to do nothing that might leave their reputation tarnished. Besides, I doubt I'll be able to discount my holding in Ipswich, now <£1 following today’s capital repayment! AC would do well to ignore this risk - or at least see it for what it is - a cost of doing business in today's lack of personal responsibility world - which we all live in. If they don't evolve, people will evolve around them.
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Post by mrclondon on Nov 3, 2015 22:35:43 GMT
As I posted yesterday, the three loans in the thread title can not currently be valued so any discussion on those loans is pretty meaningless. Perhaps better examples might be Wood***** and Anglesey. The former I'm sure can be valued (possibly even somewhere very close to par).
Anglesey's security can be valued at £800k 100% LTV based on the 7th Aug update of a suggested auction reserve price (i.e a discount of c. 10% is needed) or £680k 85% LTV (implies a discount of c. 25% is needed). However although interest is accruing it is very unlikely to be paid given the current fair value based on currently available info is less than the outstanding capital. So on the assumption that this will take a further 2 years to finalise, I would want a further 20% per annum discount to cover the loss of interest on my capital for the next 2 years. So anyone looking to sell their Anglesey loan parts to me will need to discount them by a minimum of 65% given my cutoff of 85% LTV. Is anyone out there comfortable at selling at such a discount ? - if so do shout out as it will be illuminating for both lenders and AC.
I vaguely recall we had a similiar discussion a couple of months ago, during which it was suggested that AC would probably have to impose minimum discounts on such loans to protect themselves from charges of misleading potential lenders. If I was working for AC's PR firm I think I would prefer to deal with the negative issues associated with the known write offs of capital, than be faced by headlines of loans being "worth" only 35% of the capital value on the SM when the eventual recovery will be more like 70 to 90%
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Post by mrclondon on Nov 3, 2015 23:25:00 GMT
Another thought occurs to me - the capital loss cystallised by selling at a loss on a SM probably will not count towards the new p2p interest tax offset of written off capital which will only occur when the platform has exhausted all recovery routes.
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