eddie
i have put up with a great deal from the likes of you people, a very great deal....
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Post by eddie on Nov 12, 2015 17:45:35 GMT
common sense would say the ss pipeline would be a good economic indicator
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eddie
i have put up with a great deal from the likes of you people, a very great deal....
Posts: 63
Likes: 21
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Post by eddie on Nov 12, 2015 18:08:02 GMT
common sense would say the ss pipeline would be a good economic indicator also the health of the construction industry, availability of trades and labour, materials, and general growth? and if the pipeline dried up im assuming that would be a bad thing for us on here, as that would mean any incomplete or not yet started projects would be price compromised as things are cheaper when its quiet and expensive when its busy
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 12, 2015 19:15:54 GMT
another possible economic indicator albeit based on a rather limited data set are the two companies I visited today: one has just completed a reasonably significant redudandcy round, and has stopped all discretionary capital expenditure, mostly driven by slowdown in China. The other has stopped what was an active recruitment program and putting brakes on investment due to......slowdown in China. Both are companies with worldwide markets and in completely different industries.
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 12, 2015 19:42:53 GMT
common sense would say the ss pipeline would be a good economic indicator Perhaps depends on whether you might view it as a leading indicators or lagging indicator maybe ? Or whether perhaps one likes to take the perverse view and interpret such things as an inverse leading indicator. Of course all theoretical as one needs to disentangle the apparent success or weakness of a single business from what is happening in the wider market.
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eddie
i have put up with a great deal from the likes of you people, a very great deal....
Posts: 63
Likes: 21
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Post by eddie on Nov 12, 2015 19:54:27 GMT
common sense would say the ss pipeline would be a good economic indicator Perhaps depends on whether you might view it as a leading indicators or lagging indicator maybe ? Or whether perhaps one likes to take the perverse view and interpret such things as an inverse leading indicator. Of course all theoretical as one needs to disentangle the apparent success or weakness of a single business from what is happening in the wider market. granted its not as clear cut as the price is the price, but its in there somewhere.
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Post by p2pinfo on Nov 13, 2015 10:02:27 GMT
Surely common sense would say that that there is not enough data to draw any conclusions, plus the pipeline can be 'gamed' to an extent by SS.
It would be genuinely possible for the economic indicators to be superb one month and absolutely rubbish the next, which doesn't seem very realistic to me.
A better indicator may be the aggregated amount of property loans from all similar lenders.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2015 10:15:13 GMT
It depends on where massive amounts of cash end up landing. For instance articles in Bloomberg today about Russian big money leaving the place and needs to go somewhere, while Chinese cash needs a home and the interest in NZ has abated so .... UK student flats. Housing bubbles do pop pretty fast but with bonds still at all time lows, prop still looks good (as long as it is short term).
I think the pipeline is too granular for this. FC's list might be better but you also have to look at seasonality. December is for dogs (not just for Christmas)
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