duck
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Post by duck on Nov 16, 2015 7:30:30 GMT
I regularly cut n paste the recovered capital and principal into my spreadsheets and preserve it at month end.
At the end of Oct (totals given to avoid confusion over different 'stages' moving) AMOUNT OF PRINCIPAL RECOVERED TILL DATE ........ 872.73
AMOUNT OF INTEREST AND LATE CHARGES RECOVERED ...... 156.76
As of today AMOUNT OF PRINCIPAL RECOVERED TILL DATE ........ 852.45
AMOUNT OF INTEREST AND LATE CHARGES RECOVERED ...... 153.63
So I am down 20.28 on Capital and 3.13 on Interest
Where has this gone? Is this reflecting the recovery costs being passed to me? Have defaulted loans become 'live' again and the recovered amounts been deducted from the totals since you don't 'recover' from a non defaulted loan (straw clutching going on here)
Obviously finding this out is not easy from the available account transaction downloads. I could go through loan book download and do a case by case check on my defaults but I do that at month end since it takes a fair time ....
Anybody else seen this happen?
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james
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Post by james on Nov 16, 2015 15:29:23 GMT
Your straw clutching is probably correct. Bondora does move loans from defaulted to not defaulted sometimes. I keep a list of all of my defaulted loans that I can reconcile with what Bondora says when I need to track down something like this. You may be able to track it via columns in the your investments download. I assume that there is a column there for "ever been defaulted" as well as one for "currently defaulted". Another way this could drop is if you sell a loan that is in default, as I did today on one at -56%. If you're able to you might consider changing dissappearing to reducing in the title since we're getting used to Bondora just removing numbers wholesale rather than just changes in the numbers.  |
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duck
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Post by duck on Nov 16, 2015 16:16:27 GMT
Thanks for that james.
I actually think your second possibility (that I hadn't thought of) might be the reason, since I have listed all my defaults at high discount, a couple have certainly gone ...... but I will check this out at month end (if not before). If my straw clutching scenario is correct I think that a change must have taken place in Bondora since I have had defaulted loans made live in the past and I have managed to sell them when they have become live, but I have never seen the principal and interest totals drop. This might be because other default amounts were recovered at the same time but I don't have that sort of information to hand.
Thread Title changed!
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james
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Post by james on Nov 16, 2015 19:51:29 GMT
If it helps:
1. The loan I sold today did reduce the total in my 60+ late loans query on my investments.
2. I've checked in the past and found that the per stage totals on the statistics page are perfectly consistent with the investment query.
3. It's usually not too hard to use control-f or whatever your browser uses to search the sold loans investments and find a sold loan. Should be even easier for a defaulted loan because of the smaller number of them to search through, setting your entries per page to 100 helps.
I just tried that defaulted loan search on my own investments, sold loans that are 60+ days late. 28% by value of the total capital value of loans I've sold is now in default. All Estonian. Since I've done a lot of selling of non-impaired loans I've probably done even better at identifying the likely defaulters and selling them. Or put another way, if I'd kept them my defaulted balance would today be about 3.1 times as high as it currently is and my Pound XIRR would be almost exactly zero.
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duck
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Post by duck on Nov 17, 2015 6:48:04 GMT
Thanks again james that certainly helps.
I tend to not use the Bondora site directly for finding sold/defaulted loans, I download the investments list and then filter as necessary. Since my spreadsheets identify all solds/defaults I cut n paste these into the relevant filtered info from the investments list, sort again and remove 'duplicates' .... anything remaining is new, if anything is missing it has probably been made live again! Recoveries are I find more problematical to dig out, I filter defaults and then compare outstanding principal totals to those on my spreadsheets.... not a 5 minute task since I currently have 762 defaults and cannot isolate the 'latest' recoveries so I have to check them all!
That said my withdrawal from Bondora is progressing satisfactorily, I'm still up (in spite of the Pound/Euro) and I should be seeing an Email from transferwise later today detailing my latest withdrawal
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james
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Post by james on Nov 18, 2015 18:26:02 GMT
That said my withdrawal from Bondora is progressing satisfactorily, I'm still up (in spite of the Pound/Euro) and I should be seeing an Email from transferwise later today detailing my latest withdrawal I just received an email for my last one, initiated by an email request on Monday. At least this process continues to work without trouble. Bondora is still at third most money in the list of P2P accounts and will be for quite a while. I'm doing selective selling aimed at increasing average interest rate and reducing time until all remaining loans are paid off. At the moment the longest loans I have are ending in February 2021. I did the lending on those four in April 2014 (two), September 2014 and November 2014, all for 60 months. All four are currently in 72 month arrangements. I'm in part just gradually working back from those with sales, while also working up from lowest to higher interest rates. I'm assuming that the exchange rate will get worse rather than better for the remainder of my time. More QE from ECB combined with interest rate expectations and then increases from BoE. So need a higher interest rate margin on remaining loans to stay in positive territory with whatever isn't sold.
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duck
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Post by duck on Nov 18, 2015 19:04:16 GMT
You are one step ahead of me although my last payment due (excluding arrangements) is June 2020. I'm currently selling off FC loans the last one is due in 2 years and then I will be taking the same approach with Bondora. Whilst my holding in Bondora is still in 5 figures (£) this represents just 2.23% of my 'P2P' loans ...... but the time taken to keep it on track is vastly disproportionate.
I think you are correct (been polishing my crystal ball) that the Euro/Pound rate will in the short/mid term remain a major issue but on the plus side diesel was 2/3 the cost when I was driving in France a couple of weeks ago
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james
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Post by james on Nov 18, 2015 19:22:16 GMT
I've just gone below £10k this month, still well over €10k. My peak was around £22k around this time last year. Though that was at an exchange rate of 1.25 and at the 1.42 or so today it would be about £18.5k. Something like £4k of interest received in that time and around £14k total withdrawn since I started selling. My unweighted average interest rate is now at 26.24%, all for income and expenses verified Estonian loans, almost all A 1000.
Newcomers to Bondora should not expect to match these numbers and loan distribution. It's no longer available to new investors. This is quite a mature loan portfolio initiated about three years ago that favoured lending on 60 month terms and even in that favoured group is in the top 20% of returns.
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duck
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Post by duck on Nov 27, 2015 5:50:16 GMT
Yesterday I downloaded my investment list and checked sold loans ...... yes you were correct james. The reducing recovered principal and interest was due to selling of defaulted loans..... 4 in one day! (haven't sold another since)
What surprised me was that all 4 were still at Stage 1 9 to10 months after default. 2 had never made a single payment. The 4 sold were 1 Estonian, 1 Finnish & 2 Spanish - somebody has higher expectations of recovery than I do.
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Post by batchoy on Nov 27, 2015 7:54:51 GMT
Yesterday I downloaded my investment list and checked sold loans ...... yes you were correct james. The reducing recovered principal and interest was due to selling of defaulted loans..... 4 in one day! (haven't sold another since)
What surprised me was that all 4 were still at Stage 1 9 to10 months after default. 2 had never made a single payment. The 4 sold were 1 Estonian, 1 Finnish & 2 Spanish - somebody has higher expectations of recovery than I do.
The announcement that Bondora was dropping the SM fees seems to have worked as they intended and freed up the SM almost to the extent that there has been a bit of a buying frenzy from the moment that some people received the email, let alone from when fee were supposed to have been dropped. I have sold some ridiculous loans in the last 36 hours including one that I never thought I would see go - a 50Eur share in an Estonian A 1000 60 month loan, which went to Stage 5 back in April after not having made a made a payment in 13months, and hasn't made a payment since going to Stage 5 7months ago. On paper the loan was worth a considerable sum in outstanding capital, interest and fees, but only on paper.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Jan 14, 2016 9:42:21 GMT
It's probably me being slow to notice, but on the selling screen you now see an expected return amount for each loan - my bad ones being for between 25-35% of the amount owed. I have no idea whether to give any credence to this; if it is reasonable then selling at a 65% discount would be justified.
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Post by jabardolas on Jan 14, 2016 10:07:19 GMT
It's probably me being slow to notice, but on the selling screen you now see an expected return amount for each loan - my bad ones being for between 25-35% of the amount owed. I have no idea whether to give any credence to this; if it is reasonable then selling at a 65% discount would be justified. Could you please explain where you see that. I haven't noticed anything different.
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james
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Post by james on Jan 14, 2016 12:45:19 GMT
It's probably me being slow to notice, but on the selling screen you now see an expected return amount for each loan - my bad ones being for between 25-35% of the amount owed. I have no idea whether to give any credence to this; if it is reasonable then selling at a 65% discount would be justified. There don't seem to have been any substantive changes to the information presented. No new columns. The ones you might be referring to are these in the order in which they appear: Outstanding Payments: all owed capital, interest and penalties. For older loans when penalties were added this can be very large compared to the amount of capital owed, even five times as much. Discount/mark-up: where you set the markup yourself, not a calculated column Expected Income: The amount you will get if the loan is bought at the discount or markup you gave. XIRR: the calculated return, no longer shown for defaulted loans, though it used to be. For defaulted loans care is needed because XIRR calculations can be well over 100% if made and a sale at 40% premium can still lead to a buyer getting an XIRR of over 90% if payments are made, as has happened with some I've sold. Of course that is if payments are made.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Jan 14, 2016 13:05:43 GMT
It's probably me being slow to notice, but on the selling screen you now see an expected return amount for each loan - my bad ones being for between 25-35% of the amount owed. I have no idea whether to give any credence to this; if it is reasonable then selling at a 65% discount would be justified. There don't seem to have been any substantive changes to the information presented. No new columns. The ones you might be referring to are these in the order in which they appear: SORRY FOLKS the website was misbehaving yesterday (and is misbehaving differently today) It was the expected income column that fooled me (image) Attachments:
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