duck
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,586 
Likes: 5,752
|
Post by duck on Dec 15, 2015 7:20:20 GMT
I check the number of defaults (and any recoveries made) against the 'statistics' every few days.
Today I noticed my number of Stage 1 defaults had jumped by 79 - the other Stages remained the same no sending back to Stage 1 as happened a week or so ago.
On downloading an investments list the number of 79 is correct ..... all defaulted on 15/12/2015.
My normal default rate for the past few months has been 20 - 25 so this an exceptional amount.
Anybody else noticed similar? There is obviously some manipulation going on, the 15th is for me never a date when I expect a lot of defaults (max 3 per month over the past 6 months) .... possibly connected to the recent 'incentive'?
Whilst I am yet to look at each loan (going to take some time!) thoughts please ......
|
|
JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
Posts: 1,317
Likes: 893
|
Post by JamesFrance on Dec 15, 2015 9:40:16 GMT
If you are logged in to Bondora I started a thread on their forum yesterday. I too experienced a 10% increase in defaulted loans this morning. www.bondora.ee/forum/default.aspx?g=posts&t=7635Without telling investors they have been making money with a system which they call B Secure which allows repayment holidays, so only interest is paid. The only trouble is they failed to check whether any interest payments were actually made so that loans which defaulted were overlooked. It seems they are now updating the loan status to show reality. The other effect of this is that the loans don't show overdue principal so don't reduce what they claim to be your Net Profit, or the return on investment displayed in large figure on your Dashboard. |
|
duck
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,586
Likes: 5,752
|
Post by duck on Dec 15, 2015 14:59:53 GMT
Thanks for that JamesFrance
Unfortunately your link led me to 'access denied' even though I was signed in and could access the forum! Having gone through a section of my new defaults I note that some I didn't even have marked down as 'late' on my spreadsheet (most I knew were on the way to default) possibly due to having filtered the investment list for late capital!
Whilst my withdrawal from Bondora is progressing, this debacle means I'm going to double my efforts to get out!
|
|
|
|
Post by coolrunning on Dec 16, 2015 10:10:09 GMT
Thanks for that JamesFrance
Unfortunately your link led me to 'access denied' even though I was signed in and could access the forum! ... Probably this is due to the .com vs .ee problem. It catches me often. Just use James's link but swap ee for com
|
|
duck
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,586
Likes: 5,752
|
Post by duck on Dec 16, 2015 11:16:40 GMT
Thanks for that JamesFrance
Unfortunately your link led me to 'access denied' even though I was signed in and could access the forum! ... Probably this is due to the .com vs .ee problem. It catches me often. Just use James's link but swap ee for com Cheers for that hint, found my way in!
Looks like I was not the only one, now I know why my graph has been taking an upward trend for the last 4 or 5 months. Still ahead in the game and even if all my defaults (currently 823) don't pay anything I will be ahead when the final whistle goes .... now I wonder what the Euro rate is going to do 
|
|
|
|
Post by rahafoorum on Dec 22, 2015 14:51:22 GMT
It was apparently the case that Bondora manually fixed the defaults for B-Secure loans that were on Grace period for up to 7+ months without making any payments, but were still current because no principal was overdue.
By amount, the defaults for loans issued in 2014 increased by roughly 10% (a bit over €500k) on 15th December alone. On the whole dataset the effect was smaller percentage-wise, but probably enough to give a bump to default rates in general.
Of course, you won't see that change in Bondora's statistics for a while, since no principal is overdue there.
|
|
parisingoc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 87
Likes: 25
|
Post by parisingoc on Dec 22, 2015 17:06:48 GMT
Of course, you won't see that change in Bondora's statistics for a while, since no principal is overdue there. True, but disappointing. I learnt a long time ago, whilst working in an industry bound by contracts and very precise wording, that the use of words is one of those things that we don't really inspect closely on a day-to-day, person-to-person basis. I also learnt that when the use of the words is suddenly subject to very precise inspection and meaning, things aren't going as well as expected for someone. I am afraid that in this case, that someone is we investors but arguably, by implication, also for Bondora.
|
|
carlos
I'm short Bondora and long p2p.
Posts: 104
Likes: 21
|
Post by carlos on Dec 23, 2015 0:53:45 GMT
Of course, you won't see that change in Bondora's statistics for a while, since no principal is overdue there. It looks like previous dashboard changes were actually meant to hide this jump as the "fix" was performed silently and still goes without any public announcement.
|
|
|
|
Post by rahafoorum on Dec 23, 2015 9:31:41 GMT
They can't really make an announcement and admit having made a mistake. Everything is perfect...even Bondora Rating for non-Estonian loans, even for 2014...
|
|
JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
Posts: 1,317
Likes: 893
|
Post by JamesFrance on Dec 23, 2015 9:38:21 GMT
I really hope that the FCA, when doing a thorough check during the authorisation process, will insist that they stop trying to bury the bad news and restore the default information to the dashboard and statistics page, where new investors will be able to see the full picture.
|
|
|
|
Post by rahafoorum on Dec 24, 2015 9:51:09 GMT
I really hope that the FCA, when doing a thorough check during the authorisation process, will insist that they stop trying to bury the bad news and restore the default information to the dashboard and statistics page, where new investors will be able to see the full picture. At least you still have the data, so you can do analyses like this: rahafoorum.ee/en/performance-of-bondora-rating/
|
|
JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
Posts: 1,317
Likes: 893
|
Post by JamesFrance on Dec 24, 2015 10:17:43 GMT
Thankyou, I have already read your analysis and I do understand that all the data is available for download, however my concern is for people like myself, who don't have the technical knowledge to work out the real facts behind the headline figures and will be drawn into investing with Bondora by maybe reading the promotional blurb such as the recent blog posts which give the impression that all at Bondora is wonderful.
The figure they show as your net profit assumes that recoveries will be as high as defaulted amounts less previously unpaid principal and it will take years to see if that actually happens.
|
|
carlos
I'm short Bondora and long p2p.
Posts: 104
Likes: 21
|
Post by carlos on Dec 26, 2015 11:38:18 GMT
I really hope that the FCA, when doing a thorough check during the authorisation process, will insist that they stop trying to bury the bad news and restore the default information to the dashboard and statistics page, where new investors will be able to see the full picture. At least you still have the data, so you can do analyses like this: rahafoorum.ee/en/performance-of-bondora-rating/Unfortunately, wasn't analysis made before actual correction of B-secure loans default rate? So basically your analysis is based on too optimistic data - at reality it can be worse...? Do we have any assurance that current dataset is finally 100% correct? I believe we don't know, we just work with data Bondora gave us and they proved that they can lie blatantly.
|
|
|
|
Post by rahafoorum on Jan 5, 2016 6:09:15 GMT
Unfortunately, wasn't analysis made before actual correction of B-secure loans default rate? So basically your analysis is based on too optimistic data - at reality it can be worse...? Do we have any assurance that current dataset is finally 100% correct? I believe we don't know, we just work with data Bondora gave us and they proved that they can lie blatantly. A quick check on the 2014. loan sample shows an additional 185 defaulted loans between 15th-18th of December with Exposure_at_Default amount of €530k total. In other words, the default rate has increased from €4.82 million by more than 10% within less than a month. In other words, my analysis was somewhat optimistic yes and it was actually optimistic anyway from the start because I assumed that no further defaults would happen for the sake of simplicity. Since majority of 2014 loans are probably not even halfway in their maturity, there's probably still room for new defaults there. Not too much hopefully because the rates are insanely high already, but...
|
|
