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Post by Financial Thing on Jan 11, 2016 16:54:05 GMT
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Post by trentenders on Jan 11, 2016 20:44:40 GMT
I'll just sell out on the SM. Bots don't read papers
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ben
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Post by ben on Jan 11, 2016 20:56:07 GMT
I'll just sell out on the SM. Bots don't read papers Bots might not but by then the bots might have bene cancelled
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j
Member of DD Central
Penguins are very misunderstood!
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Post by j on Jan 12, 2016 11:04:36 GMT
Both articles very feasible if you were a small-mid private landlord. We should be immune in certain aspects by investing through crowd lending. Firstly, there is no mortgage interest to pay (bar the projects on PP that are geared up). Secondly, the 3% tax does not apply if you own 15+ props which all of these sites do.
The main downside is the general house price market, if most/all go down in a correction/crash, then we make a paper loss on projects already funded/let. Short-term, that would be an issue but, if we plan to hold long-term & are happy to get the yield meanwhile, then no real biggie. If anything & whilst I wish no ill on mortgage owners, the price reduction will ultimately present opportunites for the likes of thc, pm, pp, etc to obtain similar props at lower prices, giving better possible returns/yields in the future when prices start picking up again as we go through the same cycle in a number of years' time. It will also mean more people looking to rent.
The point I'm making...think long-term...5,10 or even 15 years' time. If it's short term you want, better invest somewhere else.
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Post by highlandtiger on Jan 12, 2016 18:43:34 GMT
What a load of twaddle, looming property crash my arse.
Whilst demand outstrips supply, (and lets be frank, we are several million houses short of what is required just to stand still), prices will continue to rise. Interest rates are still mega low, meaning mortgages are cheap, wages are on the up, in real terms, meaning people are still buying properties.
Until we start building half a million homes every year for the next couple of decades, there will be no crash. The UK population is supposed to increase by around 7 million in the next 10 years or so, just to cover that rise we will need at least 2.5 million new homes, or 250,000 per year. Seeing as our total house building per year is around 120,000, and the government wants it to rise to 200,000 per year, we will still be woefully short.
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Post by Financial Thing on Jan 12, 2016 20:52:53 GMT
What a load of twaddle, looming property crash my arse. Whilst demand outstrips supply, (and lets be frank, we are several million houses short of what is required just to stand still), prices will continue to rise. Interest rates are still mega low, meaning mortgages are cheap, wages are on the up, in real terms, meaning people are still buying properties. Until we start building half a million homes every year for the next couple of decades, there will be no crash. The UK population is supposed to increase by around 7 million in the next 10 years or so, just to cover that rise we will need at least 2.5 million new homes, or 250,000 per year. Seeing as our total house building per year is around 120,000, and the government wants it to rise to 200,000 per year, we will still be woefully short. While that may be true, the fact is that the BTL market has supported the housing growth for decades and now it looks like BTL will be even less attractive. If the BTL market softens, so could price appreciation. If a generation can't get its foot onto the ladder because it's too expensive and wages haven't increased much over the past decade, it would be expected that despite the high demand, the market prices could decrease dramatically. Funny to me that the UK property owners think they are immune to a large correction. I certainly didn't think oil prices would be 60% less than a year ago. Anything is possible.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jan 12, 2016 21:11:44 GMT
IMO there will not be any softening of the BTL market. There will be a gradual shake out of amateur, highly leveraged landlords and institutional investors will move in. This is why I like property crowdfunding, for allowing ordinary bods to invest directly in this. If HBOS start a property fund you can be sure the fees and charges will be a lot higher and the fund a lot more opaque.
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Jan 12, 2016 23:12:30 GMT
What a load of twaddle, looming property crash my arse. Whilst demand outstrips supply, (and lets be frank, we are several million houses short of what is required just to stand still), prices will continue to rise. Interest rates are still mega low, meaning mortgages are cheap, wages are on the up, in real terms, meaning people are still buying properties. Until we start building half a million homes every year for the next couple of decades, there will be no crash. The UK population is supposed to increase by around 7 million in the next 10 years or so, just to cover that rise we will need at least 2.5 million new homes, or 250,000 per year. Seeing as our total house building per year is around 120,000, and the government wants it to rise to 200,000 per year, we will still be woefully short. Those fundamentals were the same the last time we had a property crash, but we still had one. Prices get way ahead of fair value, as they are now, then something triggers a crash. It's inevitable. The trigger might be some of the things mentioned in the article; it might be brexit; it might be something else. But it will happen. Just don't know when.
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sqh
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Before P2P, savers put a guinea in a piggy bank, now they smash the banks to become guinea pigs.
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Post by sqh on Jan 13, 2016 2:05:11 GMT
If property prices start falling, then property developers will stop borrowing money. That means fewer new loans. P2P platforms would need to drop their interest rates to attract borrowers and that means the existing loans will have premium rates.
Most SS loans have interest paid upfront and in most cases have an added GDV. It would need to be a big property crash before we incurred losses on SS. I wouldn't recommend P2P equity loans though.
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Post by highlandtiger on Jan 13, 2016 9:09:41 GMT
Prices get way ahead of fair value, as they are now, then something triggers a crash. It's inevitable. The trigger might be some of the things mentioned in the article; it might be brexit; it might be something else. But it will happen. Just don't know when. Fair value is a political myth created by socialists. Prices will always sit at a natural equilibrium, and currently the prices sit where they are, because there are too many people wanting to buy too few houses. Until that situation is turned on its head, prices will not fall. Yes there may be the odd dip if a recession hits, as the sheeple tend to believe what they are told by governments, but it will be a temporary dip none the less. House prices plummeted in 2008 at the start of the last recession, but within a year they started to rise again. In fact in real terms we havn't even got back to pre 2008 levels yet. Prices still have plenty of scope to rise The situation today is completely different to the last recession. In 2008, on average, mortgage payments had hit over 50% of average household income. Today that figure is about 33% of income. I find this graph to be extremely telling, when it comes to looking at the larger picture regarding house building 
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Jan 13, 2016 10:49:46 GMT
...Prices will always sit at a natural equilibrium... That is in a sense true, but markets have a dynamic of their own. The crowd gets over-enthusiastic, prices overshoot, there's a crash, and then they recover. Twas ever thus. This time won't be different.
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Jan 13, 2016 23:06:19 GMT
I find this graph to be extremely telling, when it comes to looking at the larger picture regarding house building Can this possibly be true? Not a single private house in 1950? Houses built by Housing Associations decades before they came into existence?
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Jan 14, 2016 10:05:34 GMT
It's not far off. Here is a similar graph (source www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/social-trends-rd/social...39/chapter-10.pdf). Housing associations in the previous graph really means "registered social landlords", which is a bit broader. I currently chair a small charity which is a registered social landlord but not a housing association. I have no idea what the regulations were in 1950 but I expect that, for statistical purposes, any charitable providers that were around then will have been put into this category. Attachment Deleted |
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j
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Penguins are very misunderstood!
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Post by j on Jan 14, 2016 12:21:50 GMT
It's not far off. Here is a similar graph (source www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/social-trends-rd/social...39/chapter-10.pdf). Housing associations in the previous graph really means "registered social landlords", which is a bit broader. I currently chair a small charity which is a registered social landlord but not a housing association. I have no idea what the regulations were in 1950 but I expect that, for statistical purposes, any charitable providers that were around then will have been put into this category. Re-illustrates that new builds is running @ half what it wa decades ago. In an econimic downturn, common sense tends to go out the window though so most likely will still see a correction at least in house prices...imo
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Jan 14, 2016 16:14:27 GMT
Did a bit of research and discovered that the post war Labour government banned the building of any private homes! Mad social engineering.
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