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Post by rahafoorum on Jan 26, 2016 13:25:47 GMT
Official expected returns on the PMs keep falling. Soon Bondora's expected return will be in line with Mintos and Twino, but with a significantly riskier loan book. I guess their Spanish and Slovakian escapades are catching up with them and it will become only uglier as Rahafoorum has predicted. Nah, I'm guessing it's because of using the new model's expected return. They have lowered interest rates and expected return for higher risk loans with model V2. In other words, EL% has increased and interest rate has decreased in several cases simultaneously. If you look at their stats page, you can also see that where it used to be around 20% E(R) for HR loans, it's now around 14% instead due to the new model and pricing.
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Post by rahafoorum on Jan 26, 2016 13:27:33 GMT
Data Export appears to be broken again today. Probably not. Simply has a lot of demand because people are generating account statements and the system can't really handle it or something. I guess no-one bothered to think that removing account statement might increase the usability of data export...
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duck
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,864 
Likes: 6,898
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Post by duck on Jan 26, 2016 13:58:55 GMT
Data Export appears to be broken again today. Probably not. Simply has a lot of demand because people are generating account statements and the system can't really handle it or something. I guess no-one bothered to think that removing account statement might increase the usability of data export... quite possibly but so far I have been waiting for 7 hours to download yesterdays payments ......... as for the list of investments I requested at the same time it could be days at this rate!
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duck
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,864
Likes: 6,898
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Post by duck on Jan 26, 2016 16:33:32 GMT
10.5 hours later my downloads are ready!
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Post by rahafoorum on Jan 27, 2016 19:53:51 GMT
10.5 hours later my downloads are ready! Welcome to the 21st century. Took 4 hours for me yesterday.
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carlos
I'm short Bondora and long p2p.
Posts: 104
Likes: 21
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Post by carlos on Jan 27, 2016 22:36:24 GMT
What a disappointment! - account statement only one day and hidden - default stages gone - no detailed cashflow by day (or did anyone find it) - no overdue/defaulted graphs - I don't understand recovery statistic And no, I can't calculate not-lying pie chart now. Maybe I'll build an API statistic sheet but seems to be a lot of work. Very bad as they can quietly move more loans into "defaulted" status like they did in December with B-secure loans. I hope they are not preparing space for this... Table with summary of default stages was probably the last very correct and very useful statistics that helped to track any sudden portfolio changes. Of course we've still got Data export, but one has to use macros or some automation to get something useful out of it...
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JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
Posts: 1,323
Likes: 897
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Post by JamesFrance on Jan 28, 2016 17:00:46 GMT
I have been tracking the amounts recovered for my defaulted loans for nearly a year now. There were signs that this was increasing steadily and it might just one day have given me confidence that there is some profit to be made through investing in Bondora, rather than withdrawing as much as possible because the future seems uncertain.
That information is apparently no longer available on the website as far as I can see and at my age I am not going to learn how to manipulate downloaded data, because the internet didn't really exist 20 years ago when I retired so the workings of excell are a mystery to me.
This thread title doesn't seem right for the latest changes which just seem to cause more confusion. Expected recovery means nothing to me, but actual recovery is all important and I do need a figure for that rather than some percentages I don't understand.
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duck
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,864
Likes: 6,898
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Post by duck on Jan 28, 2016 17:48:28 GMT
Ahh the recoveries 
Yes they have been getting better (not saying much through) and I have just been through the payments that I received in the last 2 weeks (manipulating the investments download) ....... and thanks to the exchange rates I am now owed more than when I started 
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Post by Butch Cassidy on Jan 28, 2016 18:43:37 GMT
Ahh the recoveries
I've always taken a pessimistic view of the recovery potential, ever since Bondora outgrew it's ability to execute the process in house (which did apparently achieve returns of 100%+!), with Slovakia & Spain complete right offs; I sold my exposure at massive discounts upto 85%, with a slight chance for Finland (as the numbers/affordability always looked good but the payment discipline was awful) & a reasonable chance given to Estonian. However since Bondora retrospectively changed the rules to mean lenders bore the cost & then miraculously the week after, virtually every default reverted back to stage 1 (& by happy coincidence fell under the new system  ) I have taken a very negative view & have everyone listed at discounts between 35-75%, even the few that continue to pay small amounts back. I figure that whilst I run down my portfolio they may as well remain for sale & then eventually be sacrificed at a price that they will sell for - I just hope that Bondora is able to remain solvent for the next 4-5 years to enable my plan to unfold 
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james
Posts: 2,205
Likes: 955
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Post by james on Jan 28, 2016 22:34:27 GMT
I have been tracking the amounts recovered for my defaulted loans for nearly a year now. There were signs that this was increasing steadily. I've been doing fairly well with many recoveries, including some moving quite rapidly towards paying off all capital and interest/penalties. Some of course have already done that. What I'm doing is using a spreadsheet to track when a default happened and progress towards paying off the capital or sale proceeds and any interest/penalties so I can see how each recovery is going. That also influences whether and at what price I put a loan up for sale. That information is apparently no longer available on the website as far as I can see and at my age I am not going to learn how to manipulate downloaded data, because the internet didn't really exist 20 years ago when I retired so the workings of excell are a mystery to me. Up to you but if you're not familiar with spreadsheets it is worth learning to use one, not necessarily Excel. They are really handy for record keeping and lots of calculations without getting into things that are too complicated. A few hours of learning can save you lots of time in the future. 20 years doesn't save you from spreadsheets because the first electronic one, VisiCalc, was introduced back in 1979. Lotus 1-2-3 followed in 1983 and Excel in 1985. Of course paper and other forms of note taking also work, I just think that you're probably going to gain more than the cost in terms of time by starting to use a spreadsheet program. This thread title doesn't seem right for the latest changes which just seem to cause more confusion. Well, the original expectation was right, Bondora just went and spoiled it when more details became known. Sad but they do seem to have a habit of doing that, in spite of the actually good things they are doing that do merit praise - it's not actually all bad.
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duck
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,864
Likes: 6,898
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Post by duck on Jan 29, 2016 6:10:55 GMT
What I'm doing is using a spreadsheet to track when a default happened and progress towards paying off the capital or sale proceeds and any interest/penalties so I can see how each recovery is going. That also influences whether and at what price I put a loan up for sale. This thread title doesn't seem right for the latest changes which just seem to cause more confusion. Well, the original expectation was right, Bondora just went and spoiled it when more details became known. Sad but they do seem to have a habit of doing that, in spite of the actually good things they are doing that do merit praise - it's not actually all bad. I've been doing the same with defaults since I had my first one a long, long time ago. Strangely patterns seem to have developed. For instance Sept 2014, Oct 2014 and Feb 2015 show that over 1/2 not have made a single payments since default, yet March 2015 shows 2/3 have made a payment since default in spite of there being more defaults for me that month.
I applaud being able to filter out the loans I have on the aftermarket - saved me a lot of time yesterday ..... but the withdrawal of the summary table for recovery is a real pain. I wonder if I would have spotted the 'back to Stage 1' change so quickly if that table hadn't been available at that time ......
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Post by oktaeder on Jan 29, 2016 6:45:15 GMT
Lates update is made now. Seems we can go BTT now, there are improvements. I.g. cancel your loans from 2nd market in your investment list. Pärtel promised me that uugh 9 months before and ok, it's done.
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yacop
Posts: 68
Likes: 42
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Post by yacop on Jan 29, 2016 6:49:53 GMT
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JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
Posts: 1,323
Likes: 897
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Post by JamesFrance on Jan 29, 2016 9:08:58 GMT
I just sent this request through the Expert Centre.
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parisingoc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 87
Likes: 25
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Post by parisingoc on Jan 29, 2016 11:33:12 GMT
And neither is www.bondora.ee/en/MyAccount/AccountHistory - it just reverts back to the 24-hour list in the so-called "Expert Center (Beta)" (sic.). Looks like they are going back through all the left-over pages (and I bet there are lots ...) and tidying up the site.
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) I have taken a very negative view & have everyone listed at discounts between 35-75%, even the few that continue to pay small amounts back. I figure that whilst I run down my portfolio they may as well remain for sale & then eventually be sacrificed at a price that they will sell for - I just hope that Bondora is able to remain solvent for the next 4-5 years to enable my plan to unfold 