mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Jan 14, 2016 23:40:57 GMT
SavingStream are coming to the rescue with 1000 acres of farmland. sqh: AFAIK, SS haven't supplied any info on that farmland yet, but my interpretation was that there were going to be four separate tranches of loan secured on the same 250 acres. I hope it's pretty productive land!
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mikes1531
Member of DD Central
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Post by mikes1531 on Jan 14, 2016 23:42:28 GMT
... hoarding cash will be worthless in the long run once inflation gets back to normal levels and stops being held down by artificially low interest rates for political advantage. ... but will we live long enough to see that happen?
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james
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Post by james on Jan 15, 2016 10:48:05 GMT
1. If true p2p then lenders are not lending to the platforms themselves, but to the borrowers on the other side of the platform. That means there's no "bank run" risk, and no leverage risk (but these might be balanced by the lack of FSCS cover). There is bank run risk. Its first symptom would be lots of loan availability on secondary markets, followed by loss of liquidity on secondary markets as investors try to sell out of loans that they think are risky. Mitigation for this would be offering to sell at a lower price to encourage buyers, something that a lender might try to do if selling some of their P2P was a better plan than selling other investments that may have fallen a lot in value, like shares. 1a. Which is not to say that a wave of defaults could not have a negative impact on a particular platform's ongoing business, and possibly confidence in the wider industry. Reduced willingness to invest might be a nasty shock to any platforms that rely on initial charges to borrowers for most of their income. No defaults required, investor risk reducing will do the job. 3c. If a significant crash of some kind does occur the biggest risk is likely to be that central banks and governments don't have much, if anything, left in their toolboxes to deal with it. Laws have been changed to expand the toolboxes. The current resolution process for globally important banks is a holding company that owns the debt and an operating company that owns the customer accounts. Resolution splits off the operating company to a new parent while shareholders and potentially bond holders get to bear the losses. For smaller banks there are requirements to have readily available identification of all balances so that within a few days the FSCS can pay out using this data. This may avoid the massive bailout situation, though the massive bailouts worked quite well and quite profitably overall for governments. What could a platform do about any of this, assuming it had enough advance warning and acted correctly? I suspect that the answer is not much more than "tighten up on lending criteria". A revenue model that doesn't rely on ongoing new loan sales, ample operating reserves and a secondary market with pricing flexibility to reduce liquidity loss for investors, though the RateSetter and Zopa approaches might also work for this, at a potentially more considerable potential haircut due to their sale charging models. Back in 2008 the first big symptom was evaporating liquidity in bond markets.
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Post by Financial Thing on Jan 15, 2016 11:23:15 GMT
What would be a safe alternative? Ultra-short dated gilts? Gold? I’ve still got some in my portfolio. Gold is actually very risky and returns are based on pure luck of jumping in and out at correct times. If you bought gold in Jan 2008 and held until now, you'd have made 2.8% annually (adjusted for inflation). Better off betting on stocks or the roulette wheel.
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Post by Financial Thing on Jan 15, 2016 11:26:37 GMT
I don't think that's remotely true. Even if they are all first charges (not all are), some properties will have much more uncertain values than others, 100% agree regarding property. I just discovered one of the new offerings on a property equity site was 20% overvalued. Please don't trust the supplied valuations and do your DD. I'm of the belief that a large correction is coming (of course no one knows when but all the red warning flags are staring us in the face). I'm sitting about 75% cash. I wouldn't touch the FTSE100 at all at the moment. Much safer in the US Indexes now IMO.
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Post by jackpease on Jan 15, 2016 12:35:43 GMT
A revenue model that doesn't rely on ongoing new loan sales, ample operating reserves and a secondary market with pricing flexibility to reduce liquidity loss for investors, though the RateSetter and Zopa approaches might also work for this, at a potentially more considerable potential haircut due to their sale charging models. Good point. Which platforms depend most/least on ongoing new loan sales? thx, Jack P
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jan 15, 2016 12:46:14 GMT
None that I can think of. It may be more pertinent to ask how far away any particular platform is from being profitable and what level of loan volume / value growth that requires.
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Post by ablrateandy on Jan 15, 2016 13:05:28 GMT
I'm with Financial Thing . I pulled my entire pension out of equities at about 6,900. It is now with the lovely chaps at SIPPclub who keep sending me mails saying "Hi Andy, just to remind you that you have xxxxxx waiting for you to invest that is just in cash at the moment." I chuckle every time I get it
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JamesFrance
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Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Jan 15, 2016 14:31:04 GMT
I'm with Financial Thing . I pulled my entire pension out of equities at about 6,900. It is now with the lovely chaps at SIPPclub who keep sending me mails saying "Hi Andy, just to remind you that you have xxxxxx waiting for you to invest that is just in cash at the moment." I chuckle every time I get it Maybe you could use it to try some of this peer to peer lending I heard about.
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Post by ablrateandy on Jan 15, 2016 14:37:01 GMT
I'm with Financial Thing . I pulled my entire pension out of equities at about 6,900. It is now with the lovely chaps at SIPPclub who keep sending me mails saying "Hi Andy, just to remind you that you have xxxxxx waiting for you to invest that is just in cash at the moment." I chuckle every time I get it Maybe you could use it to try some of this peer to peer lending I heard about. What sort of mug do you think I am?!??!?!??!!?
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blender
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Post by blender on Jan 15, 2016 14:54:51 GMT
Maybe you could use it to try some of this peer to peer lending I heard about. What sort of mug do you think I am?!??!?!??!!? Quite right. Put it in Ablrate and all your eggs are in one basket with the un-lent complaining also that you have bagged the best loans. Put it in another p2p operator and you are disloyal to Ablrate and not prepared to lead by example and put your money in. The mattress should safest - but not the one in the office.
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Post by gusgorilla on Jan 16, 2016 1:52:59 GMT
Halifax SIPP pays 0.5% on cash but sadly does not send amusing, hopeful emails. Does SIPP club pay any interest on cash?
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Post by ablrateandy on Jan 16, 2016 8:39:15 GMT
Nothing that makes it worthwhile. They have a good mix of investments though so there is probably a cash equivalent that makes sense.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 20, 2016 0:03:36 GMT
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Post by ablrateandy on Jan 20, 2016 7:42:20 GMT
There's been a massive impact on shipping generally. The Baltic Dry Index has been blown to pieces by the slowdown and (according to Zerohedge) there was not a single cargo ship en route from Europe to America on one day this month . Fortunately, as I am elucidating in a piece at the moment, the containers that we deal in have two major things to support them - a very tightly controlled supply and the fact that we aren't selling into marine operators. It's a messy world out there though
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