j
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Post by j on Jan 24, 2016 19:52:08 GMT
So the markets will keep swinging backwards & forwards till someone decides to pull the rug from underneath? We've all seen the (false?) rally after the sharp falls last week. My guess this will keep occuring till it's decided otherwise?
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Jan 24, 2016 20:50:28 GMT
I don't know enough to know, but I'm guessing there will be more down than up for the next period.
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Jan 24, 2016 22:28:06 GMT
I do not know what will happen to markets in shares or property in 2016 but I do know that the impact of the markets on the real world economy will be muted, as it always is. If you think that we are in for stormy weather on the markets it makes sense to reduce your weight, especially where your exposure is on the downside but not the upside.
In the p2p world that means reduce exposure to property, particularly at the riskier end which means the likes of SS. I know that's a minority view on this forum but I'm sticking to it. Like Tony Dye (look him up) I will be right one day...
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Jan 24, 2016 22:48:11 GMT
Like Tony Dye (look him up) I will be right one day... I expect that's true. But the critical question is how long will it be before that happens and what will happen in the meantime. IIRC, Tony Dye suggested that the FTSE was overpriced in 1996, when it was 4000. It subsequently went to something like 6400 before the dotcom bubble burst in 2000. If someone had ignored the call to get out of the market at 4000 and stayed invested, then when the collapse finally did come they could afford to take a 37% drop and still be ahead of where they'd have been if they exited at 4000.
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Post by Financial Thing on Jan 25, 2016 1:34:39 GMT
I would certainly agree with you in most cases. But since you're on this forum, I'd go so far to say that financial markets interest you, as they do I. When I watched the film (read the book also), it really astounded me that there were a few people who knew the meltdown was coming, and prepared themselves perfectly for it. As much as I've studied this topic, I can ascertain The Big Short was a highly accurate account. I used to think that no one could predict the future of the financial markets as many of the financial experts are wrong most of the time. Now I 100% believe that there are people who have access to information that others don't and they know exactly what's going on in the markets. In fact in many cases, the markets can be controlled and manipulated ... I'd also note that when people talk about losses the market experienced due to CDS or synthetic CDOs this is, by construction, nonsense. For every dollar of CDS protection sold, there was a dollar bought. These are derivatives so there is no net long position. Many investors, funds, banks etc lost an awful lot of money but there were (and had to be) many who made very substantial sums. Some investment banks did not lose money in 2008 but did take massive credit provisions for "potential losses" that were never realized; there was no political upside to being a profitable bank in 2008. As these reserves were released in later years this led to huge profits. There were huge losses experienced by pension funds who bought into CDO's that were packaged full or worthless mortgage notes given fraudulently high credit ratings by Standard & Poor. The banks knew the loans were worthless and continued forward since they knew a government bailout would happen should they fail.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Jan 25, 2016 16:04:07 GMT
I do not know what will happen to markets in shares or property in 2016 but I do know that the impact of the markets on the real world economy will be muted, as it always is. If you think that we are in for stormy weather on the markets it makes sense to reduce your weight, especially where your exposure is on the downside but not the upside. In the p2p world that means reduce exposure to property, particularly at the riskier end which means the likes of SS. I know that's a minority view on this forum but I'm sticking to it. Like Tony Dye (look him up) I will be right one day... Small businesses will also fail in a recession, especially those who need to come to p2p for their finance. At least property loans have some assets that back them up, unlike many of my Thincats loans that have defaulted. Also, the government and BoE are likely to support the housing market.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Jan 25, 2016 19:50:37 GMT
Also, the government and BoE are likely to support the housing market. Not sure about that. George Osborne seems to be trying to push the housing market down. He might think that those most likely to vote are more worried about their children and grandchildren being able to afford a home than the price of their own.
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Post by batchoy on Jan 25, 2016 20:07:42 GMT
I do not know what will happen to markets in shares or property in 2016 but I do know that the impact of the markets on the real world economy will be muted, as it always is. If you think that we are in for stormy weather on the markets it makes sense to reduce your weight, especially where your exposure is on the downside but not the upside. In the p2p world that means reduce exposure to property, particularly at the riskier end which means the likes of SS. I know that's a minority view on this forum but I'm sticking to it. Like Tony Dye (look him up) I will be right one day... Small businesses will also fail in a recession, especially those who need to come to p2p for their finance. At least property loans have some assets that back them up, unlike many of my Thincats loans that have defaulted. Also, the government and BoE are likely to support the housing market. Personally I'm not sure that given the opportunity that the Government wouldn't welcome a downward correction in the housing market. The other thing about property is its location, right know I wouldn't want to be holding any loans backed by property in Port Talbot, or any of the other UK steel making towns.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jan 31, 2016 11:11:36 GMT
Also, the government and BoE are likely to support the housing market. lol, yea, help to buy, help to buy 40% in London, really trying to push the market down. It seems clear to me they are desperately trying to manoevre a crack up house price boom in time of the next general election hoping this will fool the short sighted population into voting for them again. Brits might worry about their children and grandchildren being able to afford a home, but would never sacrifice their own well deserved gains as a solution.
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stevio
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Post by stevio on Mar 13, 2016 17:49:44 GMT
I'm with Financial Thing . I pulled my entire pension out of equities at about 6,900. It is now with the lovely chaps at SIPPclub who keep sending me mails saying "Hi Andy, just to remind you that you have xxxxxx waiting for you to invest that is just in cash at the moment." I chuckle every time I get it  Is 6,900 an amount or a date???
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Post by ablrateandy on Mar 13, 2016 18:09:35 GMT
The level it was at when I escaped.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Mar 13, 2016 18:11:45 GMT
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