GeorgeT
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Post by GeorgeT on Jun 10, 2017 20:32:17 GMT
It rather depends what they mean by concluded.
When I read this update earlier I didn't understand it.
What will be concluded? An extension, a repayment?
But I agree, let's hope it's a full repayment because this will reignite the secondary market fire.
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fp
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Post by fp on Jun 10, 2017 21:04:20 GMT
I think its a little misleading as it only refers to the downstairs unit which is being sold, I cant see that generating enough revenue to repay a circa 3m loan.
I haven't been keeping tabs on this one as i'm long out of it now, but are any of the residential units STC yet?
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GeorgeT
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Post by GeorgeT on Jun 11, 2017 0:52:34 GMT
C_D wrote, in reply to me,
Yes. I had an approx £4k stake at my peak but listed my loan parts for sale in late April /early May. I have checked my account to give you accurate information. I sold a big chunk of my holding on 16th May and then sold another big chunk on 19th May.
This left my remaining loan parts totalling £400, at about £4k from the front of the queue. But the sales queue has barely moved in the last 3 weeks and I am still £3k from the front. So I have £400 I still hold - £3-£4k from front of queue. All up for sale and not earning me interest.
Obviously this latest update makes me consider whether to cancel my sale parts so I cop the interest from 1st June. But without confirmation from LY about exactly what will be happening this week, I'm not prepared to do that.
I will be delighted if ths repays this week to free up my £400, and also because this will let £3 million loose which could hoover up some other loan parts I have up for sale.
As always, I wish you success and 12% returns with your investments. Our strategies differ and I think I am more risk averse than you but the best thing for all our interests is that loans repay and people don't suffer any losses and that loan churn/repayments are sufficient to keep the SM reasonably liquid for as long as possible.
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Post by reeknralf on Jun 11, 2017 7:30:14 GMT
In the event of a partial repayment, is this shared out pro-rata among all lenders, or do Lendy buy back loans available on the sm?
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dawn
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Post by dawn on Jun 11, 2017 7:33:31 GMT
In the event of a partial repayment, is this shared out pro-rata among all lenders, or do Lendy buy back loans available on the sm? If I remember correctly PBL006 partially repaid and we were paid pro-rata for anything we held. Not sure whether that included anything on the SM at the time the partial repayment was made.
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Jun 11, 2017 7:36:37 GMT
In the event of a partial repayment, is this shared out pro-rata among all lenders, or do Lendy buy back loans available on the sm? Pro rata is how they have previously done it. Not seen it happen in a loan with a large SM queue though. My guess is they would continue with pro rata.
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seeingred
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Post by seeingred on Jun 11, 2017 21:05:45 GMT
I think its a little misleading as it only refers to the downstairs unit which is being sold, I cant see that generating enough revenue to repay a circa 3m loan. I haven't been keeping tabs on this one as i'm long out of it now, but are any of the residential units STC yet? All the residential units are for sale and none are currently under offer or STC. I live not far away. Building works should be completed by now, the focus will have shifted to selling them. I would guess a loan extension will be needed.
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GeorgeT
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Post by GeorgeT on Jun 11, 2017 23:50:19 GMT
Because my body clock has gone wrong after I lost a full night's sleep staying up all night watchng the election results I thought I would fill a few minutes replying to a few points my old adversary - cooling_dude - made a few posts earlier. Sorry I'm no good at multiple quoting but the bits in quotes are points that C_D raised in response to a post I made:
Yes, seriously. The risk of loss from any loan increases as the loan ages. Once it goes 180 days negative a loan defaults. An accurate valuation, no fall in market values and a genuine max. 70% LTV rate might not even be enough to protect you once receiver/admin/legal/court/estate agent/auction fees have been deducted. And in terms of DFLs it's impossible to do proper DD because LY don't publish interim progress reports. I can't believe you think doing DD and holding to term is less risky than selling out after a few months and moving the cash to newer loans. If that's what you think, which it may not be. As a very learned member posted recently (username - jingwalls or jangbell or something like that) and got a hatful of 'likes' for it - the rational investor bails out before the brown smelly stuff even has a chance to hit the fan.
No I don't. It's just a case of monitoring the liquidity of individual loans and selling on before your holding becomes illiquid. I've not got that spot on recently since 250 days became the new 60 days in a very short space of time, but I would say I'm still in a strong position overall.
I have changed strategy in that I now sell much sooner. In my view it's impossible to say what is 'normal' on the SM. It is an ever changing situation. If we get 2 or 3 big repayments next week (wishful thinking I know) the 'normal' will have changed again. I think keeping up to date with the definition of 'normal' as regards the SM is the best way forward.
I share your first sentiment. However I think my more liquid position makes me less likely to be locked in if a 'catastrophe' happens and makes me more agile in the marketplace in terms of having a higher chance to sell out if and when any serious jitters start.
I know, but I also enter into a contract that allows me to list my loan parts for sale at any time but without any guarantee I will be able to sell them on.
Summary - I don't think we are ever going to agree on this one. Let's both hope that no bad event happens that enables either of us to win or lose the argument.
I offer my differing points of view by way of debate/discussion and not with any intent to create conflict. I hope this is acceptable.
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GeorgeT
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Post by GeorgeT on Jun 12, 2017 1:09:00 GMT
As 12% loans are now very scarce on LY in terms of new business I admit I do invest in every single one.
I look at the pipeline and if I see any 12% loans I set up a prefund and I ignore all the others. I don't delve into the loan very much at all apart from read the basic particulars and I set up a prefund depending on how much I think I will be able to sell before it goes live. This is because I am not prepared to increase my holding on this platform and in fact I am gradually reducing it.
When I buy into new 12% loans as I did last week I do so with the intention of now putting them up for sale once they get much below 300 days to run.
I realise this will mean my overall investment in this platform will diminish over the next few months because the supply of new 12% loans is low.
I recognise there will come a point when I am almost out of this platform altogether but when that happens I hope to escape without having suffered any losses. However I can comfort myself in the knowledge that I have been here for over 3 years and when I do my transaction statement going back over that full duration I can see the full amount of Interest I have been paid over that duration and it would require me to suffer catastrophic losses in nearly all my loans for me to have suffered any real net loss. Of course I am currently running at a shade under 12% net over the last three plus years and even if that ended up being reduced to say 8 or 9% net I would still consider myself to be a winner. But that would be a bad outcome for me because I have spent and lived off all of my interest so it would still hurt me and that's why I am cautious and anxious to avoid that possibility as far as possible.
In all honesty I expect to have exited this platform by the autumn but of course it's a hard thing to give up when your interest is still pouring in every month and you haven't suffered any losses.
Of course I am a realist and I know that losses are inevitable in the longer term so it is all about being strong willed and picking the right time to call it a day.
I have a similar amount now invested on the platform beginning with M and I feel more comfortable with those investments so I am likely to stay there a bit longer once I have left the LY Arena.
I'm off to bed,have a good night and thank you for acknowledging that at least some of my points are valid.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 12, 2017 8:05:51 GMT
As 12% loans are now very scarce on LY in terms of new business I admit I do invest in every single one. I look at the pipeline and if I see any 12% loans I set up a prefund and I ignore all the others. I don't delve into the loan very much at all apart from read the basic particulars and I set up a prefund depending on how much I think I will be able to sell before it goes live. So you would blindly buy into a 12%, no matter how bad, while ignoring an 11%, no matter how good? When I buy into new 12% loans as I did last week I do so with the intention of now putting them up for sale once they get much below 300 days to run. Assuming an average one year term, that means you have two months of investment at most. £2 return per £100 invested.
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Post by chielamangus on Jun 12, 2017 11:27:49 GMT
I was in Exeter at the weekend, so stopped off to see how the development was going. I'll try and upload some photos later. The upstairs rear exterior is mostly done and cladded out, but the apartment balconies are still being finished. The downstairs restaurant looked like the windows and patio doors have just gone in. It looks like they're still working on a first fix but the steel ceiling beams and plasterboard is up downstairs. The roof looks finished. There was a retrospective planning permission notice posted for a dormer window on the roof, which is now showing as approved on the council's website. And there was a very sleepy swan on the lawn outside, who took great umbrage at my trespassing on his literal turf.  Just found this so comment is very late. I wonder what property you were looking at because the cafe/restaurant was up and running in February ....
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 13, 2017 7:38:13 GMT
As 12% loans are now very scarce on LY in terms of new business I admit I do invest in every single one. I look at the pipeline and if I see any 12% loans I set up a prefund and I ignore all the others. I don't delve into the loan very much at all apart from read the basic particulars and I set up a prefund depending on how much I think I will be able to sell before it goes live. So you would blindly buy into a 12%, no matter how bad, while ignoring an 11%, no matter how good? When I buy into new 12% loans as I did last week I do so with the intention of now putting them up for sale once they get much below 300 days to run. Assuming an average one year term, that means you have two months of investment at most. £2 return per £100 invested. I should add that an 11% on the same terms would return a whole 17p less.
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Yintara
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Post by Yintara on Jun 13, 2017 14:41:09 GMT
The restaurant next door is open, but they're still working on the other half. The building is a bit confusing as it appears to be one building from the front, but looks like two from the rear. Which reminds me, I forgot to put up some photos (linked to save people's bandwidth): Rear 1 Rear 2
Rear 3
Side
Front
Sorry for odd orientations and weird links, I tried arm-wrestling Tinypic and lost 
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GeorgeT
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Post by GeorgeT on Jun 13, 2017 15:15:35 GMT
So you would blindly buy into a 12%, no matter how bad, while ignoring an 11%, no matter how good? YES - as long as loan size was sub about £2m and was 365 days term. I made a mistake of buying into a 183 dayer a few weeks ago. Luckily only £800 worth but still a tactical error - GeorgeTAssuming an average one year term, that means you have two months of investment at most. £2 return per £100 invested. I should add that an 11% on the same terms would return a whole 17p less. Yes but I don't have £100 invested. I have considerably more than that. And given my 'loan rotation' I aim to maintain a steadyish amount actually earning interest, i.e. I sell out of older to buy into newer so there is a process of constant renewal (subject to LY still throwing the penguins the occasional 12%er, which they are still doing). On a total £50k investment the difference between 11% and 12% is £550 pa. But, more importantly, I believe there is a correlation between interest rate of loan and liquidity. All other things being equal, investors will buy into a 12% loan ahead of an 11% loan. Obviously. So my approach relies on maintaining a portfolio of 12%ers.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 13, 2017 15:23:22 GMT
All of which is lovely, although it does ignore my "per £100 invested".
It also ignores my actual point, which is one of relative risk.
If a chunk of that £50k goes pop because you've ignored all the loan details bar the %age return, then that 0.085% difference per month in return very quickly looks insignificant, doesn't it?
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....? 
