SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Apr 1, 2016 21:06:35 GMT
Literally millions currently available. 5+ figure availability in approx 50 loans. 6 figure availability in 20. Never seen anything like it. Anyone worked out what's going on? It can't all be the QAA. Are underwriters simply trying to get something / anything to sell?
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Apr 2, 2016 8:32:07 GMT
Literally millions currently available. 5+ figure availability in approx 50 loans. 6 figure availability in 20. Never seen anything like it. Anyone worked out what's going on? It can't all be the QAA. Are underwriters simply trying to get something / anything to sell? It's been at c70 loans for a while. I'm hoping its people withdrawing cash for ISA session, or waiting on the IFISA. If so an email saying IFISA won't be here for a while similar to RS, Z etc may help. That said, MT, SS and AC have all been in feast for a month or so. I believe FC is similar (I've stopped buying there) and RS even has gone up a little in rates. So is this cash all leaving p2p? On another thread it's been suggested that 2x ITs also have sizeable discounts to NAV....
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Post by trentenders on Apr 2, 2016 8:39:16 GMT
There's still quite a few buy orders in place though. I've sold several loans this morning.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Apr 2, 2016 8:42:53 GMT
Indeed. I've still got plenty of buy orders in place myself where I'm looking to add, and many/most of the older, performing loans I hold have no availability. That's why my assumption is that the extensive availability in the newer loans is principally large underwriter holdings (not least the QAA itself) being offered for sale to free up cash.
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Post by crabbyoldgit on Apr 2, 2016 9:22:11 GMT
But if its underwriters trying to free up cash for new loans in the upcomming list and they cant how is ac going to underwrite the future loans list the qaa is way to small.I guess they may have to send a bigger proportion to the institutions in future but this is all speculation on my part.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Apr 2, 2016 9:27:58 GMT
Just had a quick rummage through the SM, looking at loans that haven't got to their first repayment yet (17 loans from 235 upwards). - Value of loans - £8.21m
- Amount available on SM - £3.55m
That works out at 43% availability.
This has got to be an untenable situation.
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Post by chris on Apr 2, 2016 9:47:14 GMT
Just had a quick rummage through the SM, looking at loans that haven't got to their first repayment yet (17 loans from 235 upwards). - Value of loans - £8.21m
- Amount available on SM - £3.55m
That works out at 43% availability.
This has got to be an untenable situation. You're assuming no growth in either the lender base or the funds existing lenders have to deploy over time, plus we're currently using only a fraction of our underwriter's stated capacity. We've got several major marketing campaigns kicking off over the coming weeks and months to drive up lender numbers, plans for new investment accounts, a ISA solution to launch, plus institutional investors hungry for more if retail doesn't grow at the rate we need. All platforms are a seesaw trying to balance lender and borrower demand, and it's rare for any platform to be perfectly balanced for any length of time. A couple of months ago lender demand was outstripping borrower demand, that's now flipped after successful changes to our origination whilst we mobilise our plans for increasing lender demand. Then it'll no doubt flip again and people will grumble about lack of investment opportunities.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Apr 2, 2016 16:16:16 GMT
Just had a quick rummage through the SM, looking at loans that haven't got to their first repayment yet (17 loans from 235 upwards). - Value of loans - £8.21m
- Amount available on SM - £3.55m
That works out at 43% availability.
This has got to be an untenable situation. we're currently using only a fraction of our underwriter's stated capacity. We've got several major marketing campaigns kicking off over the coming weeks and months to drive up lender numbers, The problem isn't finding people to underwrite the loans, it's finding people to hold them in the longer term. Additionally, I don't think lender numbers is the problem. There are probably lots of investors like myself that have money to invest, they just see the opportunities elsewhere as better that what has recently been offered on the AC platform.
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Post by chris on Apr 2, 2016 16:54:32 GMT
we're currently using only a fraction of our underwriter's stated capacity. We've got several major marketing campaigns kicking off over the coming weeks and months to drive up lender numbers, The problem isn't finding people to underwrite the loans, it's finding people to hold them in the longer term. Additionally, I don't think lender numbers is the problem. There are probably lots of investors like myself that have money to invest, they just see the opportunities elsewhere as better that what has recently been offered on the AC platform. In your opinion. I have a report tracking lender activity and funds deposited and withdrawn over the past 20 weeks, and this was the busiest week in that period with the greatest inflow of lender deposits by retail investors and that's before our marketing ramps up. Underwriters are also some of our largest lenders in terms of the amount they want to hold long term. They don't always want to sell out of a loan otherwise we wouldn't have created the compulsory sale system for them. If the loans we have on offer don't match your assessment of risk vs return then don't invest. If too many lenders agree with you then we'll have to rethink our approach, but that currently isn't the case. I'd be surprised if you felt one of the big three were offering better returns than us, so I presume you're referring to another platform like MT or SS? What is it you'd like to see from us?
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Apr 3, 2016 11:13:01 GMT
Indeed. I've still got plenty of buy orders in place myself where I'm looking to add, and many/most of the older, performing loans I hold have no availability. That's why my assumption is that the extensive availability in the newer loans is principally large underwriter holdings (not least the QAA itself) being offered for sale to free up cash. And the likes of me and many others will not be buying them. When loans were in short supply I would invest in some of the lower rate deals or even other loans I didn't want to keep too long, as a means of parking money until better offerings appeared. At that time I knew I could sell up rapidly when cash was required for other purposes. The interest was very good for that. Then QAA and buying orders appeared which is an excellent account for avoiding zero interest on cash waiting for loans. Now, if I buy almost anything at today's rates it is unlikely I will be able to sell them (without a discount) on the secondary market in quick time to finance new opportunities. So I only buy into the few loans I expect to keep for a longer period of time. All the underwriters' other available loan parts stay unbought. They won't be too happy about that, I think, because so many loans are now well into the <9% bracket. As the situation exists even on other platforms with higher rates generally, I suspect it is something to do with the end of the financial year and the expectation of IF ISAs; money is being held back. The FCA is being obstinately slow in processing applications for full FCA regulation, so that may go on for many months.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Apr 3, 2016 18:07:08 GMT
The problem isn't finding people to underwrite the loans, it's finding people to hold them in the longer term. Additionally, I don't think lender numbers is the problem. There are probably lots of investors like myself that have money to invest, they just see the opportunities elsewhere as better that what has recently been offered on the AC platform. If the loans we have on offer don't match your assessment of risk vs return then don't invest. If I had a pound for every time somebody from AC has said that I could probably afford to pay off all my suspended loans. Granny, suck and eggs spring to mind. The SM offerings for the loans I referred to must be almost wholly from the underwriting teams. If you have record income and still can't shift them then what will things be like when income returns to normal (incidentally would you like to confirm what percentage of the record income went in the QAA and what percentage was used to buy loans on the SMS?). What would I like to see? How about bridging loans at the same rate as SS, or the choice of SME loans and the rates that TC have to offer. Or how about a loan to a successful expanding business, rather than to bail out a previous business failure. Definitely no restaurants or scrap metal dealers, and nothing secured against aboriginal paintings.
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Post by chris on Apr 3, 2016 21:39:34 GMT
If the loans we have on offer don't match your assessment of risk vs return then don't invest. If I had a pound for every time somebody from AC has said that I could probably afford to pay off all my suspended loans. Granny, suck and eggs spring to mind. The SM offerings for the loans I referred to must be almost wholly from the underwriting teams. If you have record income and still can't shift them then what will things be like when income returns to normal (incidentally would you like to confirm what percentage of the record income went in the QAA and what percentage was used to buy loans on the SMS?). What would I like to see? How about bridging loans at the same rate as SS, or the choice of SME loans and the rates that TC have to offer. Or how about a loan to a successful expanding business, rather than to bail out a previous business failure. Definitely no restaurants or scrap metal dealers, and nothing secured against aboriginal paintings. Why would in bound deposits fall? We're ramping up spending on bringing new lenders on to the platform, so if successful then this current level of deposits, record or not, will look small. In the past month over £8m of loan units have been traded on the open market. The market may be lagging behind drawdowns a little bit, in terms of timing, but the volumes are there and rising across the board. We're not SS and currently have no ambition to compete with them in their niche. Our property team has taken a good look at their loans and whilst there's a small percentage that we probably would have lent on the majority aren't for us, and our team think that the default rate over the next couple of years will be relatively high with potential for substantial losses. Time will tell - we're either going to be proven right or we're going to look foolish for having missed out on that opportunity. Perhaps that will ride upon how soon and how sharp the next recession will be. And whilst many SS lenders seem to be counting on market liquidity allowing them to exit before term that isn't a viable underwriting strategy for us - we have to look after the loan over its full lifecycle not create opportunity for lenders to bail and pass on excessive risk to other unsuspecting lenders. Even if you take the Duff***d loan which is probably the closest we've come to offering a SS style loan you will have seen the amount of risk mitigation we put in prior to the loan drawing down that you do not see on SS. Where we see that opportunity with an exit strategy we believe is viable then we'll lend but we will not compromise the quality of our credit process. Likewise TC are for the most part targeting loans we aren't interested in. There's more overlap there with them than with SS, but TC have had their own issues with defaults and recoveries that we're aiming to avoid. Our most recent drawdown, Proj**t Blo*****ry, is a successful business that is expanding. If it's about rates then we're likely to be drifting slowly away from you I'm afraid. Our aim is to offer more loans across all rates, including those at the higher end, so perhaps there'll be enough volume for you to be very selective as to which of our loans interests you. However the market, both borrower and lender, will determine the various sweet spots that resonate and therefore where we find a volume of loans that we can fund.
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happy
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Post by happy on Apr 4, 2016 9:56:55 GMT
If I had a pound for every time somebody from AC has said that I could probably afford to pay off all my suspended loans. Granny, suck and eggs spring to mind. The SM offerings for the loans I referred to must be almost wholly from the underwriting teams. If you have record income and still can't shift them then what will things be like when income returns to normal (incidentally would you like to confirm what percentage of the record income went in the QAA and what percentage was used to buy loans on the SMS?). What would I like to see? How about bridging loans at the same rate as SS, or the choice of SME loans and the rates that TC have to offer. Or how about a loan to a successful expanding business, rather than to bail out a previous business failure. Definitely no restaurants or scrap metal dealers, and nothing secured against aboriginal paintings. Why would in bound deposits fall? We're ramping up spending on bringing new lenders on to the platform, so if successful then this current level of deposits, record or not, will look small. In the past month over £8m of loan units have been traded on the open market. The market may be lagging behind drawdowns a little bit, in terms of timing, but the volumes are there and rising across the board. We're not SS and currently have no ambition to compete with them in their niche. Our property team has taken a good look at their loans and whilst there's a small percentage that we probably would have lent on the majority aren't for us, and our team think that the default rate over the next couple of years will be relatively high with potential for substantial losses. Time will tell - we're either going to be proven right or we're going to look foolish for having missed out on that opportunity. Perhaps that will ride upon how soon and how sharp the next recession will be. And whilst many SS lenders seem to be counting on market liquidity allowing them to exit before term that isn't a viable underwriting strategy for us - we have to look after the loan over its full lifecycle not create opportunity for lenders to bail and pass on excessive risk to other unsuspecting lenders. Even if you take the Duff***d loan which is probably the closest we've come to offering a SS style loan you will have seen the amount of risk mitigation we put in prior to the loan drawing down that you do not see on SS. Where we see that opportunity with an exit strategy we believe is viable then we'll lend but we will not compromise the quality of our credit process. Likewise TC are for the most part targeting loans we aren't interested in. There's more overlap there with them than with SS, but TC have had their own issues with defaults and recoveries that we're aiming to avoid. Our most recent drawdown, Proj**t Blo*****ry, is a successful business that is expanding. If it's about rates then we're likely to be drifting slowly away from you I'm afraid. Our aim is to offer more loans across all rates, including those at the higher end, so perhaps there'll be enough volume for you to be very selective as to which of our loans interests you. However the market, both borrower and lender, will determine the various sweet spots that resonate and therefore where we find a volume of loans that we can fund. I have been in P2P for around a year, done a huge amount of research and and have invested in 8 differnt platforms with a significant total sum now invested. I am struggling to understand why AC is taking so much heat from a number of forum members recently on this thread and a few others. Let me explain my views and then hopefully you can help me learn some more about P2P investing. It seems that most of the criticism of AC recently has been about rates....not as good as MT/SS or arguments of now pricing for liquidity not risk etc. and I don't fully understand why, taken in the wider view of the P2P market, some of you now find AC so uncompetitve. My abridged view of the market risk vs. rates is this, I am focused on asset-backed lending only so no FC SME: In the 4-6% range you have Zopa and RS etc with predominantly retail lending and PFs (if you ignore Z+ with it's mix of unsecured auto-allocated loans) but you also have the likes of secured property backed BTL/Property specialists Landbay and also Wellesley offering 4.25% to upwards of 5%. This I believe to be low risk P2P with proportionally lower returns. I expect the majority of P2P investors have some of their portfolio in these types of platforms. At the higher end of the returns scale there are the likes of MT,SS,TC,ALB etc offering around 12% and including pawn-style lending against assets like cars and jewellery, shipping containers, planes etc but also SME and property development loans, bridge loans etc etc. I have researched most of these other platforms and overall I think I understand why the rates are what they are, the risks are in my view generally higher but, more importantly for me, my ability go judge the risks is much lower due to both the information provided by the platform and the markets they are lending to. I feel more uncomfortable judging risk when if comes to the likes of works of art, exotic cars, shipping containers, planes or complex property development loans. I feel that these platforms are for the seriously experienced and/or less risk averse investors or, perhaps maybe, I have misjudged some of them. So that brings me to AC. GBBA and GEIA at 7% I think competes very well with other low-risk, PF protected, asset-backed easy to manage accounts and with the MLIA I am currently achieving 9.5% average in the MLIA well diversified with everything from 7%BTL loans & renewables to SMEs at 10%+. The QAA is an added bonus that helps get a return on idle money and increase overall return. Generally I feel very comfortable with how AC go about their business and the information provided to investors and on balance feel it offers a fair risk/return compared to the market highs and lows that are out there. I do accept that there are loans on AC, as most platforms, that some investors won't want to invest in. My view on the 12% rates in SS, MT etc is that it cannot be sustainable and/or must come at the cost of higher risk. With the likes of FC drving down borrowing costs for P2P generally (with rock bottom unsecured SME lending and high LT(GD)V development loans and bridge loans are going out at 8% pretty much daily) platforms that try and compete at the higher rates are going to have to take bigger and bigger risks to keep their rate-hungry investors happy. If Landbay can do BTL for under 5% and be growing very very fast then much higher rates than this must surely either be justified by much higher risk or they are simply unsustainable. It seems that BTL at 7% on AC today is seen by some as not very attractive even though older 7%BTL loans on AC have been pretty much fully subscribed since I joined. I understand there a lots of far more experienced investors out there than me and perhaps I am missing something that would aid my understanding and change my future platform choices so I would really would appreciate some experienced investors views on this.
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iren
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Post by iren on Apr 4, 2016 10:52:29 GMT
I agree with everything you say happy.
The key for me is the level of information provided on loans. Other platforms tend not to offer me enough information to feel that I understand the risk presented, at outset but even more as the loan progresses. I've just completed a withdrawal from one platform that offered me a higher average rate but on which I felt increasingly clueless at what possible future cost, in the inevitable event of recession at some point. Another higher rate platform I'm sticking with but not to commit such a significant sum.
I'd guess the key issue for uptake of loans is the dramatic increase in deal flow. Not everyone has the funds to invest in each loan as they did when deal flow was slower, or the desire to continue increasing their exposure on the same site or in P2P indefinitely. AC will need to balance current deal flow with a new raft of lenders.
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Post by chielamangus on Apr 4, 2016 12:53:20 GMT
This has got to be an untenable situation. All platforms are a seesaw trying to balance lender and borrower demand, and it's rare for any platform to be perfectly balanced for any length of time. A couple of months ago lender demand was outstripping borrower demand, that's now flipped after successful changes to our origination whilst we mobilise our plans for increasing lender demand. Then it'll no doubt flip again and people will grumble about lack of investment opportunities. I would endorse Chris's comment. P2P is tiny in relation to the entire investment market and small absolute changes in investor demand or borrower supply on any one platform can create the impression that the system is out of kilter. As long as P2P remains relatively small, one must expect periods of over or under-supply. It's a liquidity issue that most of us were aware of when we started. Periods when you can sell immediately are bound to be followed by times when little seems to be selling. I've not noticed the desire to sell particularly strong so far. Most loans are not offered at any discount, and the highest discount I've seen is 2.5 per cent on a loan where some investors have made it plain they want to exit asap. I made a comment a few months back on the very small discounts on offer on some loans which people wanted to sell. I thought the 1 per cent discounts quite ridiculous (because I thought that if people really wanted to offload they would offer more substantial discounts). Others here disagreed with me, and pointed out it was a cheap method of getting to the front of the queue - something I had not thought of. But it did reinforce my view that there was little desperation to sell. After all, getting to the head of the queue is one thing, finding a buyer is another. As Chris says, the market will flip at some point, and suddenly you will be able to sell everything you want quickly (well, the Welsh one might still need the help of a discount ...). We just don't know when.
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