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Post by coolrunning on Mar 29, 2016 7:54:32 GMT
Ignoring a poor start when I got most things wrong, I have closely managed my portfolio (now 2 years old) and sold any poorly performing loans even if this means a big discount. I like to suffer my losses early.
I have run a simple XIRR evaluation of my portfolio for around 18 months.
This is a basic XIRR evaluation: all loans valued at principal value, except defaults with zero value. Today, this gives me an XIRR 11.38
It has been fairly consistent for 18 months, usually between 11 and 12.5. It is low at the end of the month, and higher mid-month (when most payments come in)
Compare this with Bondora's headline Net return, today this shows 17.95%. This also has been fairly consistent for 18 months, usually between 17.5 and 18.5
What do other investors show?
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parisingoc
Member of DD Central
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Post by parisingoc on Mar 29, 2016 11:34:01 GMT
Hi there.
Not investing, just running the portfolio down, selling defaulted loans with no positive recovery news at substantial (60%- 85%) discounts, leaves my Bondora reported return at 15%, where it has been for 6 months+.
I have stopped micro-managing the portfolio as I withdraw funds.
I don't do the XIRR calculation, mainly because I can't be bothered. My overall target now is to get out what I put in.
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Post by coolrunning on Mar 29, 2016 11:57:19 GMT
Hi there. Not investing, just running the portfolio down, selling defaulted loans with no positive recovery news at substantial (60%- 85%) discounts, leaves my Bondora reported return at 15%, where it has been for 6 months+. I have stopped micro-managing the portfolio as I withdraw funds. I don't do the XIRR calculation, mainly because I can't be bothered. My overall target now is to get out what I put in. Hi I used to enjoy your posts. Sorry to hear you have given up on Bondora. I still hope to clear 10% before tax.
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james
Posts: 2,205
Likes: 955
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Post by james on Mar 30, 2016 10:35:49 GMT
For me:
Bondora says 24.7%. My Euro XIRR is 16.9% with all default valued at zero or 20.0% at 70%. My GBP XIRR is 9.7% with all default valued at zero or 13.9% at 70%.
It is likely that the Euro values will continue to increase over time. The GBP ones will vary with the exchange rate. All of the loans I have are Estonian and all are now at least 15 months old. Average interest rate is about 26%.
About 4-5 months before GBP out is higher than GBP in. Euros is about break even already, only €100 more in than out.
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Post by rahafoorum on Mar 31, 2016 13:55:13 GMT
My own very conservative XIRR calculation with deducting 100% of overdues and defaults, has been roughly above 20% most of the last year or two and has climbed up to 27% now that I'm exiting (mostly due to defaulted and overdue loans coming back into balance by selling at discount, but also some current ones being sold at mark-up).
Bondora's XIRR has shown around 25-28% for same period.
This has been achieved mainly due to selecting loans based on statistical analyses before risk-based pricing was introduced and picking mispriced loans. Also some of it has been achieved through somewhat more advanced investment tactics that could be used at some point with smaller portfolios.
I believe that today, achieving this type of return is not possible, nor was it possible if you didn't stick with almost entirely EST loans in the past.
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Post by bandit55555 on Mar 31, 2016 15:15:22 GMT
Hi, Bondora shows me 38,24% return. In my own calculation my return is actual 28,7% (XIRR). And I have not many red loans. It so high, because I am active on the Secondary market and because of my own Scoring Model that I develope since June 2014. The highest return Bondora shows me in the past was nearly 60% p.a. At that time I had a XIRR return form over 35% p.a. after bad debts. And that was not in the beginning. At that time I had many hundreds loans in my Portfolio with no loans with more than 60 days overdue, because I sell them before. Since 1 year my total return decreases from month to month because of the lower interes rates and because of some defaults in spanish loans. I try to sell the spanish loans after or before they become red. My average interest rate of my active loans is now 40,2%. So far a really good financial investment for me. So it will be exciting what the future will bring on Bondora
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Post by coolrunning on Apr 1, 2016 6:56:15 GMT
Thanks james, rahafoorum, bandit
Are we all using the same XIRR method? Mine is all loans valued at principal value, except defaults with zero value.
Bandit: You have a big portfolio of Spanish loans. I looked at your site but not reading German I was unable to find default rates. Do you get these high returns using the same XIRR method as I do?
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Post by bandit55555 on Apr 1, 2016 16:15:13 GMT
Thanks james, rahafoorum, bandit Are we all using the same XIRR method? Mine is all loans valued at principal value, except defaults with zero value. Bandit: You have a big portfolio of Spanish loans. I looked at your site but not reading German I was unable to find default rates. Do you get these high returns using the same XIRR method as I do? Until recently I had no red loans in my portolio because I sell all loans with discount. Since we can trade even red loans, I also put every red loan to the secondary market to sell them. But I do it not very fast. Every few days I increasing the discount. I some cases I have up to 20 loan parts from the same borrower. So it takes some time to sell all red loans. If I use your XIRR method (all loans valued at principal value, except defaults with zero value) my XIRR is only 1 percent lower. It logical that I sell many loans with huge discounts. But thats normal when your average interest rate is above 40%.
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james
Posts: 2,205
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Post by james on Apr 1, 2016 17:18:01 GMT
Are we all using the same XIRR method? Mine is all loans valued at principal value, except defaults with zero value. Maybe not exactly the same. I count money from the time I pay it into Bondora until the time I take it out. That means my number will be lower than Bondora's number. Same loan valuation method as you.
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Post by rahafoorum on Apr 3, 2016 12:54:29 GMT
As stated above, I use similar method, by calculating XIRR based on deposits and withdrawals (includes cash drag effect essentially) AND I deduct fully all overdues and all defaults. In short: - current = 100% of principal value - overdue = 0% of principal value - 60+ days overdue (actually 74+ today, but somehow it still says this ): 0% of principal value I'm calculating very pessimistic scenario.
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Post by coolrunning on Jun 22, 2016 8:42:21 GMT
Just for interest, I post my current XIRR: 11.35%
It hardly changes.
Basis: - current and overdue = 100% of principal value - 60+ days overdue = 0% of principal value
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