poppyland
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Post by poppyland on Apr 2, 2016 19:42:11 GMT
If you're lending with borrowed money (that you are legally obliged to repay) then you need to be comfortable that you could survive the "worst case scenario" of 100% of your capital disappearing up in smoke. If that scenario would leave you destitute / bankrupt then I'd advise investing most / all of it in something else that cannot potentially become worthless. It is unlikely that a well diversified portfolio of P2P loans would ever become entirely worthless .... but not impossible. Yes, you're right. Well, we could survive losing all the money. It wouldn't be very amusing paying off a massive mortgage for the next 15- 20 years that we hadn't really got any benefit from, but we'd still have a roof over our heads and money to live off. And working until we dropped was what we were planning to do until recently, so that wouldn't be a huge shock either. All in all, I feel that going for the high-risk, high-gain approach is the right way for us, and it's also much more interesting than sticking the money in some pathetic bonds. I saw that a swedish P2P went totally bust some years back, but people actually got back 75% of their money invested. Not too bad really.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Apr 2, 2016 21:12:55 GMT
Agreed, I don't buy this 100% loss, it is property after all. Worst case you would take a big hit, let's say 40%, but you don't have to earn 12% for too many years, to have a buffer for those losses. I think SME lending is far riskier in most cases, as their assets have often vanishished by the time the liquidators turn up, then you have all those recovery experts to pay for, before you get a penny. One loan I was in had over £2m of assets against 750k Loan, looked good until all of those assets turned out to be worthless. Others don't even have security.
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poppyland
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Post by poppyland on Apr 3, 2016 5:50:15 GMT
Yes, the SME loans didn't seem safe to me either. And crowd funding of houses seems to tie you in for far too long (often 3 -5 years). Student pods looked really dodgy and illiquid. But short-term P2P loans secured on property ticks all the right boxes.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Apr 4, 2016 12:40:28 GMT
...short-term P2P loans secured on property ticks all the right boxes. One thing to consider is that no matter how robust a platform's disaster plans are, if the platform fails and the plan has to be put into action it will take some considerable time to sort everything out. There's obviously going to be a big problem if the end result is a large loss, but even if the final result is full recovery, or a small loss, you will be without access to your funds for a lot longer than if the platform was still trading normally. As long as you can survive the consequences of minimal access, this may not be a significant issue, but it does provide another reason to invest in multiple platforms rather than just one.
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boundah
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Post by boundah on Apr 4, 2016 13:26:57 GMT
Leveraged borrowing is basically what banks do and make billions every year Errm, except in 2008 of course when it came back to bite them in the @$$ .. luckily they had we taxpayers to bail them out. If you play that game as an individual you are optimistic, or naive, or shortly-to-be-broke. A major difference though: in the years leading up to 2008 banks were quite happy to lend at LTVs of 100% (and more), on 25-year self-cert mortgages at BR+0.5%, which is why we ended up owning them and their frazzled loanbooks. So I'm much more comfortable risking my cash at 70% LTV on one-year loans paying 12%.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Apr 4, 2016 16:18:15 GMT
Errm, except in 2008 of course when it came back to bite them in the @$$ .. luckily they had we taxpayers to bail them out. If you play that game as an individual you are optimistic, or naive, or shortly-to-be-broke. A major difference though: in the years leading up to 2008 banks were quite happy to lend at LTVs of 100% (and more), on 25-year self-cert mortgages at BR+0.5%, which is why we ended up owning them and their frazzled loanbooks. So I'm much more comfortable risking my cash at 70% LTV on one-year loans paying 12%. Oh I'm quite happy to risk mine too, obviously, .. but that's different from leveraging it by borrowing and risking that. Mine I don't have to pay back anyplace. I have no problem with risky lending, I do have a problem with excessive leveraging. ZDP ITs a few years back were another case in point. Same bad result.
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poppyland
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Post by poppyland on Apr 4, 2016 16:26:05 GMT
A major difference though: in the years leading up to 2008 banks were quite happy to lend at LTVs of 100% (and more), on 25-year self-cert mortgages at BR+0.5%, which is why we ended up owning them and their frazzled loanbooks. So I'm much more comfortable risking my cash at 70% LTV on one-year loans paying 12%. Oh I'm quite happy to risk mine too, obviously, .. but that's different from leveraging it by borrowing and risking that. Mine I don't have to pay back anyplace. I have no problem with risky lending, I do have a problem with excessive leveraging. ZDP ITs a few years back were another case in point. Same bad result. Personally, I'd rather risk the bank's money than my own. It's a bigger gamble than saving first and then investing, but more of a payoff too ....the cost/benefit looks pretty good if it's your only pension option. But on the other hand, I'm not all that keen to lose anything. I'm wondering how much everyone considers safe to have in any one SS investment. I was thinking maybe £1000. And do you think if one investment goes bad there will be a domino effect and others will fail too?
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Apr 4, 2016 16:33:21 GMT
There's no general numeric answer .. you have to consider all your resources, and how they are deployed. Some BHs can't be bothered with anything unless they can get £100k in . Some folks shouldn't have more than a tenner in. I'm happy with a k or two in most of them, but it is money I can afford to lose, or wait a long time to get out again, and my liabilities are few, and well covered.
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homes119
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Post by homes119 on Apr 4, 2016 17:51:32 GMT
Just a thought, in case of crisis the banks could significantly tighten up lending which could actually result in an increase in deal flow on SS. If investors hold their nerve, and that is a big if . and keep funding new loans with Saving Stream cherry picking the best assets, Saving Stream would keep making money and investors could potentially boost the PF by investing in the new loans to cover a nice chunk of the shortfall in recoveries from defaulted loan and ride it all out until the market recovers. That's the optimistic view
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nick
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Post by nick on Apr 7, 2016 18:13:37 GMT
I believe the biggest risk in the bridging loan & development loan market is financing/refinancing risk at the end of term. Unlike residential mortgages where there isn't expectation of any transaction that can be affected by market conditions (except where the borrower loses their job), the repayment of bridging/development loans is dependant on obtaining refinancing from a traditional lender or sale of the development - both are very sensitive and exposed to changes to market conditions. In 2008 we saw that market sentiment can change fast and quickly affect market liquidity (both in terms of credit and property transaction vols).
There is a reason the market demands 12-18%pa+ on these loans, there is quite a large systemic market risk. That said, it is difficult see more than a 50% loss in most scenarios (maybe on aborted developments if credit completely dries up and the bottom falls out of the housing market?)
My bigger concern is platform risk. Regulation by the FCA is welcome, and gives some comfort that most charlattens are kept out and platforms are managed appropriately with adequate resources and appropriate internal controls. However, fraud or some other control failure leading to a catastrophic event can never be completely discounted. Madoff was subject to regulator and auditor scutiny and he managed to pull of a $50Bn fraud and others will no doubt follow irrespective of additional regulations and controls put in place. I hope that in time that P2P platforms will be afforded protection under the FSCS.
Before investing on any platform I perform some degree of cursary DD, i.e. reviewing statutory accounts (although most are not audited), e.g. SS' unaudited accounts for the year ended Aug 15 show net assets of £270k, understanding their business model and how they make money, and how responsive they are to investors. Ultimately I only invest on any one platform the amount that i'm willing to lose and try to diversify as much as possible as some platforms will fail, frauds will occur, and people will suffer loses....never stick all your eggs in one basket.
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Apr 7, 2016 19:30:02 GMT
Fscs for p2p would drive a significant drop in rates to balance out the costs...
I agree that platform risk is probably under assessed.
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