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Post by danraj on Apr 26, 2016 12:39:41 GMT
Just a quick note to let everyone know that the calculation has been updated to ensure that the last period in the series now ends on the current day. Previously the period ended on the last day there was a change in capital employed, i.e. the last time you added or took funds from the platform. For many lenders this will result in a modest increase in Average Return. Still to do: - Update date of defaulted loans to use date of default instead of inception date
- Update dashboard to show probable loss arising from defaults
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Post by danraj on May 3, 2016 13:30:35 GMT
Update to confirm both these actions have now been undertaken.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on May 4, 2016 11:10:15 GMT
Update to confirm both these actions have now been undertaken. Hi danraj, I logged in yesterday shortly after reading your post to find that my Dashboard projected average return, having been stable at around 14% over the previous week, had dropped to around 4%. Checking again today, after 1 loanpart sale and 1 monthly repayment, it is now showing 5.57%. I'm reasonably comfortable that the 14% figure is consistent with the projected Default loan recoveries that you're now including in the projected return calculation, so I'm confused why the latest tweaks you describe have reduced the projected return again so dramatically. Can you perhaps shed any light? Thanks.
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Post by danraj on May 4, 2016 12:16:34 GMT
Your dashboard is showing me 12.82%, try a hard refresh (ctrl + F5).
From analysing your series, it seems like you take (relatively) fewer repayments at the start of the month, since your last 5 days net return has been sub 10%.
Since you're generally divesting, you should be aware that idle funds are bringing down your average (since they proportionally represent a larger part of your portfolio). These contribute to the 'capital employed' calculation against which we divide your returns.
Also, since you're not compounding/reinvesting as much (as before), you're not benefitting (as much) from the promo-credits and compounded returns. This is bringing down your average too.
If you click the 'Export to CSV' on your dashboard you can see your series data and evaluate for yourself what happened in each period to affect your net return calc.
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SteveT
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,873
Likes: 7,918
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Post by SteveT on May 4, 2016 15:02:30 GMT
Your dashboard is showing me 12.82%, try a hard refresh (ctrl + F5). From analysing your series, it seems like you take (relatively) fewer repayments at the start of the month, since your last 5 days net return has been sub 10%. Since you're generally divesting, you should be aware that idle funds are bringing down your average (since they proportionally represent a larger part of your portfolio). These contribute to the 'capital employed' calculation against which we divide your returns. Also, since you're not compounding/reinvesting as much (as before), you're not benefitting (as much) from the promo-credits and compounded returns. This is bringing down your average too. If you click the 'Export to CSV' on your dashboard you can see your series data and evaluate for yourself what happened in each period to affect your net return calc. Thanks for checking but it's still showing 5.57% at my end (see screen-grab below). I don't think it can be a browser caching issue as it's the same whether I log in using Chrome or Edge. 
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Post by danraj on May 4, 2016 16:07:47 GMT
I've just applied a minor fix. Now it should show 6.1%, which looks to be correct. This will increase as you collect repayments, so long as your portfolio sustains no further defaults.
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SteveT
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,873
Likes: 7,918
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Post by SteveT on May 4, 2016 16:38:21 GMT
I've just applied a minor fix. Now it should show 6.1%, which looks to be correct. This will increase as you collect repayments, so long as your portfolio sustains no further defaults. OK, interesting. Thanks. I wonder why it was showing 14%+ all last week then. My own crude XIRR projection is 13.2% (my original ReBS stake money all now having been withdrawn), which assumes notional repayment today of remaining capital in "performing loans" only plus residual cash on hand (ie. assumes no further interest and all defaulted loans written off in full). It will be interesting to see how reality pans out over the coming months / years.
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