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Post by coolrunning on Apr 28, 2016 7:54:54 GMT
I looked at the recent video on the Cash Flow Report, especially the Lifetime net return aspects.
This can be seen if you tick the correct boxes and then go to the dashboard.
Like everything else in investing, looking to the future requires making estimates.
What estimates would you recommend?
On my first run I set:
- both 'current' to 90% - both 'debt' to 70% - ignoring taxes
I am being fairly optimistic since : - my loans are fairly mature, most (80%) having at least 9 payments complete - I invest 2/3 in EST (rest being FIN) and mostly in C and D rated loans.
The Lifetime net return shows an impressive 18% - am I being too optimistic with my settings?
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JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
Posts: 1,323
Likes: 897
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Post by JamesFrance on Apr 28, 2016 8:40:38 GMT
I think 70% for recovery of default principal is unlikely and no chance of the same for default interest. That would assume that all defaults are repaid fully when DCAs have taken their share. My defaults are still increasing by more than my income even after being reduced by recoveries.
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Post by coolrunning on Apr 28, 2016 10:05:38 GMT
Good questions James
I was assuming 'current' meant 'Green' up to date loans, and debt meant 'Orange' or 'Red' loans
If debt indeed means actual amounts owing, my figures are very optimistic.
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Post by jabardolas on Apr 28, 2016 17:11:03 GMT
Bondora recommends you some values when you change the settings in the cash flow page. The cells are highlighted with a light yellow color. In my case bondora recommends: Current principal 100% Debt principal 55% Current interest 90% Debt interest 5%
Myself, I use current principal at 100% and debt principal at 60% and the rest I set to 0%. I use these settings to estimate the current value of my account.
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Post by rahafoorum on Apr 29, 2016 8:06:36 GMT
I wonder if this assumes the percentages only towards the future scheduled payments or the whole outstanding debt principal? (Debt seems to include overdue + defaulted I suppose)
In other words, if by schedule there's €10 left and the actual outstanding amount is €50, will it consider 70% of that €50 being recovered when calculating the dashboard values or only the €10?
Imho all the cool estimates etc are pretty much useless, because there's no information whatsoever, what they actually do and I cba to waste my time trying to figure it out. I'll just continue on the exit path.
Judging by past experience, one shouldn't really take any values shown too seriously, unless it's clear how they're calculated (take a loan, pay fees for that loan and see how your profit just increased by that amount, anyone?).
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Post by perpetualtraveler on May 2, 2016 10:34:41 GMT
Isn't the point of adjusting these numbers to get a - backtested -close fit between planned and actual receivables (perhaps with a percentage cushion) in order to predict the future? I get the closest fit at:
90% current principal forecast 35% deb principal forecast 75% current interest forecast 0% debt income forecast
Crappy 8.24% lifetime net return forecast...
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JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
Posts: 1,323
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Post by JamesFrance on May 2, 2016 11:44:09 GMT
I don't think you can base your forecast on past recovery, because Bondora allocates all default payments to capital until that is fully repaid and only then starts to collect any interest. You can only really guess what success they will have with collections, because there is no way of knowing that.
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Post by perpetualtraveler on May 2, 2016 12:06:53 GMT
Ok but if you have debt income forecast at 0% this wouldnt make much of a difference right?
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JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
Posts: 1,323
Likes: 897
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Post by JamesFrance on May 2, 2016 12:49:44 GMT
I have overdue income and late charges of 7,105.38€ and I am hoping that in a few years I may begin to get some of it. Of course it will only be for loans where the principal has already been recovered. Quite how the DCA charges will be treated remains a mystery but presumably they will have to be accounted for because they still show the following on their web site:
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Post by rahafoorum on May 2, 2016 18:34:51 GMT
I have overdue income and late charges of 7,105.38€ and I am hoping that in a few years I may begin to get some of it. Of course it will only be for loans where the principal has already been recovered. Quite how the DCA charges will be treated remains a mystery but presumably they will have to be accounted for because they still show the following on their web site: That has been there for a long while and the fees have been hidden for something like 8 (?) months? Think it matters?
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JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
Posts: 1,323
Likes: 897
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Post by JamesFrance on May 3, 2016 6:38:08 GMT
That has been there for a long while and the fees have been hidden for something like 8 (?) months? Think it matters? They do not have full authorisation yet so I would think they still have many changes to make before they meet all the requirements. Presumably they have made the necessary application.
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Post by coolrunning on May 10, 2016 13:36:56 GMT
I looked at the recent video on the Cash Flow Report, especially the Lifetime net return aspects. This can be seen if you tick the correct boxes and then go to the dashboard. Like everything else in investing, looking to the future requires making estimates. What estimates would you recommend? On my first run I set: - both 'current' to 90% - both 'debt' to 70% - ignoring taxes I am being fairly optimistic since : - my loans are fairly mature, most (80%) having at least 9 payments complete - I invest 2/3 in EST (rest being FIN) and mostly in C and D rated loans. The Lifetime net return shows an impressive 18% - am I being too optimistic with my settings? Based on comments made here in the forum, I took my questions as to what the terms meant to Bondora support, and have this answer: Forecast settings treat your account as if you wouldn't invest any more and it takes into account planned future payments, for example Current Principal Forecast 90% -> all the principal planned to you will be paid in the range of 90%, instead of a 100%. So this calculates all of [Planned Current Principal] * 0.9.
Debt Principal Forecast 75% -> basically all the principal that is in debt, all of [Planned Debt Principal] * 0.75
Current Interest Forecast 95% -> All of [Planned Current Interest] * 0.95 Debt Income Forecast 50% -> All of [Planned Debt Interest] * 0.5
I agree "Debt Income" is not the best term, we will look into this and change it to "Debt Interest".
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Post by rahafoorum on May 10, 2016 18:32:48 GMT
So only future payments in the schedule? As in, if I have a loan A that defaulted today, then only the payments that are scheduled since today onwards are deducted with that percentage and any previous ones are ignored (fully deducted already previously)?
What if I receive enough principal payments to cover the entire principal debt, but initial schedule still has future payments planned. Will those payments disappear from the planned principal row or does this calculation still expect to get something from that?
What if that same loan has defaulted 3 years ago before all principal is repaid and it begins paying interest. Will future interest payments only consider and reduce the future planned payments according to the original schedule (which is entirely random amount, considering that the loan defaulted and payments were made in totally different amounts and dates and thus accrued interest should be totally different from the amounts specified in schedule)? Or will it deduct from the entire unpaid interest amount that should be paid and that couldn't be paid anyway before all principal was repaid?
From your pasted description, I'd say it is the first case of using those random irrelevant figures?
To be honest, sounds like a relatively random and useless logic for in debt loans if it's looking at scheduled future payments to do this deduction. Not sure what it's supposed to achieve if repayments are made without considering the schedule and predictions are based on schedule, not actual situation.
Or maybe I didn't really understand that explanation...
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Post by coolrunning on May 10, 2016 19:11:27 GMT
I did not say that I understood it, I just gave their answer. My problem is that there seems to be no distinction between good, overdue and default loans. eg. I would like to have a new parameter that I could set such as: Default principal forecast xx% Default charges forecast xx%
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