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Post by soereng on May 2, 2016 19:40:02 GMT
Hi all,
until some weeks ago the "CurrentDebtDays" in the account as well as full data set was a perfect indicator to check wether a loan would be shortly before default. Bondora then changed the way how to determine the default event and how they would count those days - and voilà, the number is now useless.
Has anybody another good way how to determine if a loan will go default e.g. within then next 2, 3, ... n days?
Thanks,
Soeren
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Post by coolrunning on May 3, 2016 19:49:52 GMT
What does "CurrentDebtDays" now mean, if anything?
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Post by soereng on May 3, 2016 21:25:35 GMT
"In the good ol' times"...this meant: How many days is the loan due. As at day 61 the loan turned into default, a strategy to avoid default loans in the portfolio would be to put them at day 57 on the 2nd market with reasonable discount. At least this was my strategy.
Bondora however did a significant change in how they determine defaults, e.g. they first apply overdue payments to outstanding principle, when that's zero, the apply it to outstanding interest. I haven't understood fully, when the CDD goes back to zero. The various other fields "InDebtXXXdays..." however don't get reset to zero once all is paid, so it's impossible to use them as alternatively. I also have various loans where CDD is >>100 days, e.g. because some restructuring whith still outstanding took place.
Short story: The field is now useless, any other ideas are welcome. I've sent this request already to support twice, second time this Monday, but did not receive any answer then a questions why I need this ,-)
Cheers,
Soeren
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Post by rahafoorum on May 3, 2016 21:36:17 GMT
Bondora however did a significant change in how they determine defaults, e.g. they first apply overdue payments to outstanding principle, when that's zero, the apply it to outstanding interest. Afaik this has been this way since the beginning of times. Probably the main reason why your 61 day thing doesn't work, is that defaults now happen on day 75 instead? Also, loans only default if the overdue payments equal to two monthly payments or something in those lines, so the debt days alone don't really mean that it will default. Go check the loan contract or ToU for specific details. Not sure where it's written out nowadays. From what I understand, the debt days will reset to 0 if loan is fully back to date with payments, so if the borrower only pays the principal and not the interest, it could reach a decent amount of days overdue without defaulting. However, if the borrower then pays some of the interest payments, then I'd imagine the number will decrease since oldest payments are covered first?
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