oldgrumpy
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,087 
Likes: 3,233
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Post by oldgrumpy on Oct 25, 2016 13:24:52 GMT
hey dodger - can you squash that list up a bit? Big spaces ... scroll city, man.  |
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Post by dodgeydave on Oct 25, 2016 13:31:04 GMT
hey dodger - can you squash that list up a bit? Big spaces ... scroll city, man. Happy now 
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oldgrumpy
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,087
Likes: 3,233
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Post by oldgrumpy on Oct 25, 2016 13:40:33 GMT
Ah. Thanks dodge. Have a banana. |
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Post by danraj on Oct 25, 2016 16:28:12 GMT
I'd encourage registered lenders to download the Loan Book sheet from our stats page.
This can be pivoted on 'Non-Performing' to get a list of Defaulted and Bad Debt loans long with the date of the next due repayment.
The default rate shown on our site is annualised, not an aggregate lifetime rate.
I trust that helps.
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Post by danraj on Oct 25, 2016 17:40:56 GMT
Please login to download at: reb.so/loansThis is updated daily. It's easier for me to analyse any loan in question if referenced by ID in this sheet. I'll allocate a prize for anyone who cooperatively helps to identify, diagnose and remedy any discrepancies or issues. |
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Post by dodgeydave on Oct 26, 2016 1:52:19 GMT
danrajThank you for taking the time to reply. A number of questions. 1) Do i now assume that the 11.1% default rate is a monetary value . ie 11.1% of your loan book of 10.52 million . That makes 1.6 million in default. ? If so i should be made clear on your states page. 2) Of the 35 loans i identified in default. Can you give a figure of the amount recovered. 3) Why do the stat's for the " Total funds lent' not agree on quick stat's and the main stat's page.
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Post by danraj on Oct 26, 2016 14:14:40 GMT
Hi Dave,
I'll ask compliance to review to tooltips to clarify the language explaining some of the logic used in more detail.
1) Earlier this summer, we updated the default rate from a lifetime total (as per your assumption), to an annualised rate, calculated from the average of each period in the series (year / risk). The first and last years are down-weighted (as they are incomplete years).
2) Recoveries are not currently public, however I recognise the benefit of communicating actual and probable recovery information. I will confer with the team over how best to represent our recoveries process and performance. £111,302.92
3) There are 5 early loans excluded, from the main stats table, the larger figure is more accurate, so I'll rectify this over the coming weeks.
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Post by dodgeydave on Oct 27, 2016 1:36:02 GMT
Hi Dave,
I'll ask compliance to review to tooltips to clarify the language explaining some of the logic used in more detail.
1) Earlier this summer, we updated the default rate from a lifetime total (as per your assumption), to an annualised rate, calculated from the average of each period in the series (year / risk). The first and last years are down-weighted (as they are incomplete years).
2) Recoveries are not currently public, however I recognise the benefit of communicating actual and probable recovery information. I will confer with the team over how best to represent our recoveries process and performance. £111,302.92
3) There are 5 early loans excluded, from the main stats table, the larger figure is more accurate, so I'll rectify this over the coming weeks.
Again thank you for your time. It is important for your company to keep communicating , whether by your good self or a member of staff. This platform may only represent a small number of your investors , But we can make a difference to a loan filling or not. 1) I believe that the lifetime total makes it easier for the layman to understand. But i can understand why you would wish the annualised rate . 2) The probable recovery rate means absolutely nothing. And am not happy that it has been used on my investor dashboard . Factual information on defaults is needed. 3) If there is a discrepancy in figures , a footnote would help. You have given a clear simple reason.
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Post by danraj on Oct 27, 2016 14:19:01 GMT
Noted. We have recently recruited another customer support agent, who is in training with us at the moment and has made a positive start.
I'm still working on the normal distribution curve of net returns, I'm needing to deal with various outliers in the data to create a meaningful report, but I'll be able to create a meaningful White Paper once completed.
Since we are showing annualised return rates, it makes sense to do the same with comparative figures, although I take your point that there may be a case for a table showing the lifetime performance stats, we have various lender compounding their returns on our platform so the lifetime aggregate stats would need some explaining.
I respect you point that a macro 'probable recovery' may not be meaningful to everyone. We have a significant majority of lenders who express their appreciation of their 'probable recovery' indicator, they like seeing this update as the loan progresses through the enforcement process as and when we receive news. The probability is adjusted for various factors, like IVA considerations, the type of security, the cooperation of the borrower. With time, we aim to improve the accuracy of our forecasting. We also use this to begin writing-down the asset value in the calculation of the net return. Lenders still have access to the underlying aggregate default amounts.
I'll get on with promptly fixing the discrepancy in aggregate stats.
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mnm
Posts: 65
Likes: 16
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Post by mnm on Oct 28, 2016 11:29:22 GMT
Hi Dave,
I'll ask compliance to review to tooltips to clarify the language explaining some of the logic used in more detail.
1) Earlier this summer, we updated the default rate from a lifetime total (as per your assumption), to an annualised rate, calculated from the average of each period in the series (year / risk). The first and last years are down-weighted (as they are incomplete years).
2) Recoveries are not currently public, however I recognise the benefit of communicating actual and probable recovery information. I will confer with the team over how best to represent our recoveries process and performance. £111,302.92
3) There are 5 early loans excluded, from the main stats table, the larger figure is more accurate, so I'll rectify this over the coming weeks.
Again thank you for your time. It is important for your company to keep communicating , whether by your good self or a member of staff. This platform may only represent a small number of your investors , But we can make a difference to a loan filling or not. 1) I believe that the lifetime total makes it easier for the layman to understand. But i can understand why you would wish the annualised rate . 2) The probable recovery rate means absolutely nothing. And am not happy that it has been used on my investor dashboard . Factual information on defaults is needed. 3) If there is a discrepancy in figures , a footnote would help. You have given a clear simple reason. I agree with dodgeydave communication is important. When your hard earned money at stake but you are not sure what position it is in communication is very helpfull even if it is not good news information is good. I almost agree with dodgeydave The probable recovery rate means absolutely nothing. Where I come from cystal balls are never that reliabel. The wife and me like the probable rate predications because it gives us an idea of what might happen but we accept crystal balls do go wrong.
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mnm
Posts: 65
Likes: 16
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Post by mnm on Oct 29, 2016 11:18:19 GMT
@magenta14. You sound a bit despondant? Wife says there are people called actuaries that give risk on things happening in the future. They dont use crystal balls, Fools!! They call there results predictive outcomes. These are based on facts. Businesses pay them to help there business. The wife says they vary rarely get it completely right but normally get close. She says they dont get it right because things can change. She said thats the same with rebs and there probable recovery rate. She says LTV given on other sites is taken as Gospel by some people but isnt because things change all the time and so the LTV change. I think I understand what she means. She says the same things happens when recovering rebs money, things change that cant be predicted. Enough of the wife!! dodgydave. I agree with you that I havent a clue what Im talking about, I know I need to learn a lot but have you herd? Good news!!! You know you didnt like the way H*O D****ll S*****s Ltd was being done? It has paid. Even I thought that would not happen. I must polish my crystal balls so I can see clear. I only have one spare so you and @magenta14 would need to share. |
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Liz
Member of DD Central
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Post by Liz on Oct 29, 2016 12:17:28 GMT
The figures I like to use to work out my return and wished platforms would use it is:
Interest earned
Defaults
Total losses = Losses + expected losses
This can be an accumulated figure or per year figure.
I can see what percentage of my returns I am losing. If I also have my interest earned percentage I can make more use of the data.
On TC for example, I have earned about £22k, have £5k total losses(estimate) and have earned 11.5% on funds invested.
Losses as a percentage of interest = 22%(below 25% is fine, below 20% is good)
Return on funds 11.5%
so, Net return = 8.89%
A simple figure on a platform of; Total Interest earned vs Expected losses of all members, would be useful. Data that is comparable between p2p sites would also be useful.
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Liz
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,426
Likes: 1,297
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Post by Liz on Oct 29, 2016 12:25:11 GMT
@magenta14 . You sound a bit despondant? Wife says there are people called actuaries that give risk on things happening in the future. They dont use crystal balls, Fools!! They call there results predictive outcomes. These are based on facts. Businesses pay them to help there business. The wife says they vary rarely get it completely right but normally get close. She says they dont get it right because things can change. She said thats the same with rebs and there probable recovery rate. She says LTV given on other sites is taken as Gospel by some people but isnt because things change all the time and so the LTV change. I think I understand what she means. She says the same things happens when recovering rebs money, things change that cant be predicted. Enough of the wife!! dodgydave . I agree with you that I havent a clue what Im talking about, I know I need to learn a lot but have you herd? Good news!!! You know you didnt like the way H*O D****ll S*****s Ltd was being done? It has paid. Even I thought that would not happen. I must polish my crystal balls so I can see clear. I only have one spare so you and @magenta14 would need to share. P2P sites don't use actuaries or real world data, they use lala-land made up/hope figures when assessing recoveries.
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
Posts: 2,806
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Post by jonno on Oct 29, 2016 12:57:19 GMT
mnm
I heard that ReBS do utilise what they refer to as their in house actuary, which initially filled me with some hope. 
Then I found out her name was Mystic Meg 
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shimself
Member of DD Central
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Post by shimself on Oct 30, 2016 11:41:43 GMT
To my recollection REBS is the only site to publish recovery estimates. I find them helpful. They would be more helpful if the outcome were also published.
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