merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
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Post by merlin on Apr 8, 2014 9:03:14 GMT
I must admit the last two months have revived my interest in FC. During late Jan though early February I had a great cleanout of poor and low value loans and mostly got a reasonable premium on them. This left me holding a mid four figure investment with good returns (by todays standards) after tax and defaults. Then came the turnaround with rates going to levels I had not seen for well over a year so it was back to fill your boots time. ... So now it is back to watch and wait time again. Roll on the good times again. I agree with your implication, Merlin, that the optimum way to use FC would be to take money in and out according to the conditions on the FC platform, according to whether they support buying or selling. But some of us do not wish to work that hard and we spend enough time on managing an FC portfolio without wishing to get involved with other platforms, just to be able to ride the FC waves when the tide is right. We must respond to economic cycles, but do not need FC cycles superimposed. Some consistency and predictability should be provided by FC if it is to inspire confidence in its general investors (and its venture capital backers). 'No surprises' is a good maxim. Thanks for you comments Blender. Just to clarify, I have a very wide investment portfolio including other P2P providers, shares, etc. and tend to switch my attention regularly. With FC it really has just been a bit of fun more than serious investing. However I have strategy even for investing in FC. This strategy took quite a while to formulate and evolve but it seems to work for me. Put simple I spend about an hour each day evaluating where I am going to invest and also decide how much and at what price I will bid, place my bid and leave it. Subsequently if I get it fine, if I don't fine also but it adds to my knowledge of where the market is going. Normally I do not hold anything for more than six months. Simple really and it works for me. Still don't like how FC operate their business but higher achieved rates have perked me up a bit.
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markr
Member of DD Central
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Post by markr on Apr 8, 2014 10:29:45 GMT
I've just sold at par a sub-MBR B that came back from late today and it was gone in minutes. The number of par and discounted parts has fallen to about 2/3 of what was there yesterday so it seems like maybe the cashback offer has been the dose of Mr Muscle drain unbunger that the secondary market's plughole needed. I might even start listing with a premium again.
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Post by aloanatlast on Apr 8, 2014 13:22:15 GMT
I've just sold at par a sub-MBR B that came back from late today and it was gone in minutes. And just after I discounted some parts that weren't shifting at par.
But I don't think anything's fixed. Presumably Autobid goes shopping when there aren't enough auctions to take all of a lender's cash pile (which would be 100 for a new lender depositing a multiple of £2000 with 1% exposure).
So we're on notice - when the number of auctions goes back up, Autobid will go back to sticking more and more of its funds into auctions and almost nothing into the secondary market.
Unless they change the algorithm to sweep the secondary market before resorting to auctions.
Meanwhile the non-par secondary market is still looking fairly constipated. It should unclog as people see bargains that can't be matched at auction, even with cashback, though there's a lot of flipping stock out there waiting to be sold.
But I'm not convinced anything is fixed really. The lending market seems inelastic - it doesn't respond to rate changes to stabilise rates. On the contrary, the bigger and more attentive lenders will tend to hold back when they see secondary prices falling.
A lot will now depend on the new institutional investors and how their money is managed. It may help, it may not.
And this property thing.
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blender
Member of DD Central
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Post by blender on Apr 8, 2014 13:28:48 GMT
I've just sold at par a sub-MBR B that came back from late today and it was gone in minutes. The number of par and discounted parts has fallen to about 2/3 of what was there yesterday ... Have just checked and there are 24,000 loan parts at par or sub-par compared with the peak I noticed of about 26,000. So improving but not a lot, and it jumped from 20,000 to 25,000 when the 1% started. But agreed that since the amount of new auction money reduced the secondary market has become a little less tight. Would anyone like some pre-loved C- parts at 11.5%? No premium required!
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Post by aloanatlast on Apr 8, 2014 13:36:45 GMT
I've just sold at par a sub-MBR B that came back from late today and it was gone in minutes. The number of par and discounted parts has fallen to about 2/3 of what was there yesterday ... Have just checked and there are 24,000 loan parts at par or sub-par compared with the peak I noticed of about 26,000. So improving but not a lot, and it jumped from 20,000 to 25,000 when the 1% started. But agreed that since the amount of new auction money reduced the secondary market has become a little less tight. Would anyone like some pre-loved C- parts at 11.5%? No premium required! No. Don't melt those cage bars down yet.
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markr
Member of DD Central
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Post by markr on Apr 8, 2014 13:49:11 GMT
Have just checked and there are 24,000 loan parts at par or sub-par Blimey, there were "only" about 16000 when I checked before that post earlier. There's still a massive clog of matted C- hair in the plughole it would seem.
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mikeb
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Post by mikeb on Apr 8, 2014 19:08:09 GMT
Presumably the cash back offer will close soon ... The cashback offer overlaps(?) with the 2% Cashback offer attached to the property deal coming through ... more cashback to collect then!
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Apr 8, 2014 19:25:05 GMT
Presumably the cash back offer will close soon ... The cashback offer overlaps(?) with the 2% Cashback offer attached to the property deal coming through ... more cashback to collect then! Where did you spot reference to 2% cashback on property, I wonder?
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Apr 8, 2014 20:44:04 GMT
2% property cashback in the FC blog, as referenced in the weekly email I think. If not p2p money blog (http://blog.p2pmoney.co.uk/) has a sanitised copy.
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fasty
Member of DD Central
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Post by fasty on Apr 8, 2014 21:33:54 GMT
Oh; I saw about property in the blog but missed the 2%. Thanks.
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Post by valerieb on Apr 9, 2014 7:08:24 GMT
Yes, I missed that too - thanks mikeb and GSV3MIaC.
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mikeb
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Post by mikeb on Apr 9, 2014 18:02:15 GMT
Yes, I missed that too - thanks mikeb and GSV3MIaC. Anyway, the 1% cashback ends tomorrow, so the property one will probably come through after those finish.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Apr 9, 2014 18:14:27 GMT
The secondary market is now moving but is still very slow. I have had about 30 loan parts for sale for about a week and have shifted ten so far. They must have be taken up by Autobid as no active investor would have touched them (is there any way of knowing if Autobid has been used?).
It seems that the contrarian investment strategy is now to:
1). unload all of your suspect loan parts when the market is liquid but don't investment as rates will be low.
2). invest when the market is illiquid as rates will be high and sit on any loan parts that you wish to unload until 1) applies.
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merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
Posts: 902
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Post by merlin on Apr 10, 2014 9:27:42 GMT
The secondary market is now moving but is still very slow. I have had about 30 loan parts for sale for about a week and have shifted ten so far. They must have be taken up by Autobid as no active investor would have touched them (is there any way of knowing if Autobid has been used?).
It seems that the contrarian investment strategy is now to:
1). unload all of your suspect loan parts when the market is liquid but don't investment as rates will be low.
2). invest when the market is illiquid as rates will be high and sit on any loan parts that you wish to unload until 1) applies. The only problem for most investors is predicting which way the market will move and when. These trends are difficult to predict as blender has already pointed out. This time last year we entered a phase of lowing rates which stopped me unloading some of my older loans and this was further exacerbated by FC shifting the MBR rates up. I wasn't able to unload at par never mind a premium until Jan/Feb this year. Following this we have again had a rate boom which now seems to have come to an end. One could reasonable predict that rates will continue to go down and maybe it will then reach a point where the secondary market starts to look attractive to investors/Autobid. But the big "BUT" is will it? Only FC have a clue as to what will happen the rest of us just have to keep guessing, be patient and grab opportunities when they arise.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Apr 10, 2014 10:33:30 GMT
"Only FC have a clue as to what will happen"
Well that's comforting, then! 
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