pip
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Post by pip on Jun 24, 2016 8:09:03 GMT
What are people thoughts on the impact. I can see this having a major impact on both house prices and liquidity. Surely a lot of buyers will pull out until there is more clarity on the future.
Who knows what will happen to property prices, but foreign investors have lost near 10% on currency alone. If I had to have a guess it must have an impact, I predict 10-20%.
In terms of property development loans I am predicting a lot of delays and potentially a test of those with high LTV's or optimistic valuations.
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am
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Post by am on Jun 24, 2016 8:39:25 GMT
What are people thoughts on the impact. I can see this having a major impact on both house prices and liquidity. Surely a lot of buyers will pull out until there is more clarity on the future. Who knows what will happen to property prices, but foreign investors have lost near 10% on currency alone. If I had to have a guess it must have an impact, I predict 10-20%. In terms of property development loans I am predicting a lot of delays and potentially a test of those with high LTV's or optimistic valuations. The stockmarket is spooked. Persimmon is down 20%.
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locutus
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Post by locutus on Jun 24, 2016 8:51:17 GMT
The stockmarket is spooked. Persimmon is down 20%. Now is a great time to be picking up cheap shares. Be greedy when others panic and all that.
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kt
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Post by kt on Jun 24, 2016 8:53:23 GMT
It would be wise to sell any loan parts you hold in property development. My concern not that prices might drop 20% but that property might not shift at all.
Once the exit happens it could become a stampede.
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am
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Post by am on Jun 24, 2016 9:01:29 GMT
The stockmarket is spooked. Persimmon is down 20%. British Land and Land Securities down 15%. Lloyds and RBS down similar.
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pip
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Post by pip on Jun 24, 2016 10:13:01 GMT
Maybe some people will not pay the balance on their £2m one bedroom studio, with designer bathroom next to battersea dogs home. Surely all that stuff is doomed.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jun 24, 2016 10:31:32 GMT
And a good thing too.
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pip
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Post by pip on Jun 24, 2016 12:33:47 GMT
This is the end of the property bubble, boom, gone, done in one night. Think I am exaggerating well you wait. Nobody with any sanity is going to complete on purchases at current prices at this time, banks will have to reign in lending.
Foreign investors will be in shock and panic.
Everything changed last night, it will take people a while to realise this.
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Investboy
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Trying to recover from P2P revolution
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Post by Investboy on Jun 24, 2016 13:48:48 GMT
No change whatsoever. I don't get why people panic. I guess everybody still needs to live something, eat something, use electricity, water, drive cars, watch tv, use their iPhones the vote does not change this.
To foreign investors (paying in USD) everything in Britain got 10% cheaper overnight. Including property.
For British exporters their products just got cheaper for their customers.
Quality blue-chip companies got cheaper 10-20% overnight. The FTSE 100 makes 75%+ of their profits abroad so Brexit or not this does not really impacts them.
Not to mention less red tape from Brussels, no payments to EU ect.
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pip
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Post by pip on Jun 24, 2016 14:24:45 GMT
No change whatsoever. I don't get why people panic. I guess everybody still needs to live something, eat something, use electricity, water, drive cars, watch tv, use their iPhones the vote does not change this. To foreign investors (paying in USD) everything in Britain got 10% cheaper overnight. Including property. For British exporters their products just got cheaper for their customers. Quality blue-chip companies got cheaper 10-20% overnight. The FTSE 100 makes 75%+ of their profits abroad so Brexit or not this does not really impacts them. Not to mention less red tape from Brussels, no payments to EU ect. Invest I am pro leave, so I agree there will be many benefits. However the shock and impact particularly on the London housing market will be massive. It already was in a bubble and in my opinion this will create firstly gridlock in the market and then a huge repricing of London property prices. Let's see.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Jun 26, 2016 6:32:31 GMT
The risk profile for property development loans has now changed fundamentally. 8% for a developer loan is much too low for the associated risk. I have just sold my last 46 property loans at par. All went very quickly even the 8% ones. I've no longer any property exposure through Falling Construction.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jun 26, 2016 12:35:42 GMT
Agreed, but I sold everything worse than 10% A+ during the Ipad frenzy.
Now still locked into only the south London but at 12% and the security should be sufficient to refinance the half unpaid. Other loans will go before lock-in. I've done very well out of FC cash back property loans, but all good things come to an end. Not going E-fishing.
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Jun 26, 2016 21:45:30 GMT
Indeed, 8% was OK when there was 2% cashback, rinse and repeat, thank you very much. In today's climate, however, it's not (apparently) competitive. I cleared out all property loans below 9% long ago, and now I'm gradually disposing of everything below 10% as I explore pastures new, in particular Savingstream. SS clearly has it's own issues too, but at 12% fixed and no other fees, it's hard to ignore. It's been interesting to spot some familiar ex-FC faces over on their forum...
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kt
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Post by kt on Jun 27, 2016 13:57:29 GMT
The stockmarket is spooked. Persimmon is down 20%. Foxton's is down 36% since Friday, from £1.67 to £1.07. That is on top of the gradual falls from £2.50 in the last year. I'm not sure if that is indicative of anything other than Foxton's business.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jun 27, 2016 21:13:56 GMT
There won't be a property crash while interest rates are so low and mortgage rates are dropping lower. People can afford to hang onto their properties because the payments are so cheap. London is crazy so who knows what will happen there. The panic is laughable.
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