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Post by moonshine on Jul 5, 2016 18:15:49 GMT
Hello to All, I'm new here on the forums and, as a relatively new SS investor, it is great to have a forum dedicated just to this. Just wondered what people think of these fund freezes going on at the moment? And how do you think it will affect SS in general? www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36715806PS: Thanks to the Mods for their work in explaining some of the SS FAQs more clearly (in a way that even SS themselves haven't done yet). |
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jul 5, 2016 21:08:19 GMT
Unless of course it is really SS specific, in which case 'here' might make sense. 8>.
SS is probably the most 'property-centric' of the major platforms discussed here, so may take more than their fair share of the pounding (I see already the SM is back up over £1m, where it was down earlier, so maybe some fair weather lenders are looking to reduce their exposure). There is certainly a building head of negative sentiment about London residential prices (although that's been said on and off for some years!), and commercial property plays may well come to depend more on 'what's the rental income' than 'how many apartments could we turn it into (iffin we only had the cash and some buyers)'. Interesting times - especially perhaps for auction buyers.
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stevio
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Post by stevio on Jul 5, 2016 21:21:53 GMT
Unless of course it is really SS specific, in which case 'here' might make sense. 8>. SS is probably the most 'property-centric' of the major platforms discussed here, so may take more than their fair share of the pounding (I see already the SM is back up over £1m, where it was down earlier, so maybe some fair weather lenders are looking to reduce their exposure). There is certainly a building head of negative sentiment about London residential prices (although that's been said on and off for some years!), and commercial property plays may well come to depend more on 'what's the rental income' than 'how many apartments could we turn it into (iffin we only had the cash and some buyers)'. Interesting times - especially perhaps for auction buyers. A drop from 5m earlier last month
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jul 6, 2016 0:06:06 GMT
PS: Thanks to the Mods for their work in explaining some of the SS FAQs more clearly (in a way that even SS themselves haven't done yet   
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jul 6, 2016 6:47:42 GMT
Yes ilmoro , WE know it's you and not 'the mods' ... although volunteers are welcome. 8>. stevio .. yep, it went down (for several reasons) but now seems to be headed back up, which I attribute to some FUD. |
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Post by moonshine on Jul 6, 2016 13:00:34 GMT
PS: Thanks to the Mods for their work in explaining some of the SS FAQs more clearly (in a way that even SS themselves haven't done yet Thank you ilmoro! Yes, I created this post specifically to ask how people think this would affect SS, since it is heavily invested in commercial property.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Jul 6, 2016 13:08:58 GMT
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stevio
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Post by stevio on Jul 7, 2016 3:21:12 GMT
Yes ilmoro , WE know it's you and not 'the mods' ... although volunteers are welcome. 8>. stevio .. yep, it went down (for several reasons) but now seems to be headed back up, which I attribute to some FUD. Just trying to bring some perspective, there will be some inevitable variability not necessarily attributable to a pattern forming, I don't think either of us would appreciate any encouragement to starting a stampede exit from SS and commercial property
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james
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Post by james on Jul 8, 2016 11:21:47 GMT
It's just an ongoing symptom of several things: 1. the recognition that commercial property values were high and perhaps close to their likely peaks in this cycle that prompted redemptions to start earlier this year with 127 million of outflows in April then 360 million in May ( direct link) as investors sought to exit from property funds near their highs. 2. the further reduced confidence in business growth prospects post-brexit. 3. the 13% drop in the Land Registry price index during the last recession. 4. and now the 8 point drop in the latest GfK consumer confidence survey result ( direct link). 5. and also now half of the UK retail property funds by value invested are blocking redemptions ( direct link). With that background it can't really fail to reduce interest in both the primary and secondary markets for the loans SavingStream offers. Whether that reduced interest is enough to cause SavingStream issues with cash flow due to reduced origination and initial fees is another aspect of the question and I don't know how sensitive their business is to this risk. Since demand has fairly recently been higher than supply it may be that reduced demand longer term just produces a better balance between supply and demand, perhaps even with increasing loan volumes. And of course property developers themselves may reduce the number of deals that they try to do, reducing the potential supply of loans that SavingStream could offer. It's really tough to guess how the various factors will balance out. When considering investing in P2P it's always good to remember that even if there's a secondary market there's no guarantee of ability to sell and you might be forced to hold a loan to redemption. In the case of SavingStream a borrower is normally given extensions to their loan if they are trying to refinance so you might be tied in longer than the original loan term is that happens. It's a routine part of lending via SavingStream.
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