j1
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Post by j1 on Aug 10, 2016 7:28:38 GMT
Trying to work out how many lenders I should to put my money in to to insure against default risk. Obviously from a risk pov the more the merrier. But surely at some point the additional lenders don't make a big difference. Is there a rule of thumb formula I can use? I was thinking 10 split across MT and SS but that still might mean I am moving one once a month so would do less if I can get away with it. I am trying to reduce the amount of unnecessary maintenance required. How many pies do you have?
Thanks!
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Post by propman on Aug 10, 2016 7:37:21 GMT
Trying to work out how many lenders I should to put my money in to. Obviously from a risk pov the more the merrier. But surely at some point the additional lenders don't make a big difference. Is there a formula I can use? I was thinking 10 but that still might mean I am moving one once a month so would do less if I can get away with it. I am trying to reduce the amount of unnecessary maintenance required. How many pies do you have? Thanks! If you're looking for more lenders to put money into, I can give you my details .
Re borrowers, just thinmk what will happen to your returns when one goes bad. Say you only lost 50% of one of 10, that is a 5% reduction due to bad luck, so >5 months interest. Personally I wouldn't like that, but if P2P is only a small amount of your portfolio you might be happy. For consistent monthly returns you need 250+ and preferably 400+.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Aug 10, 2016 7:39:39 GMT
Trying to work out how many lenders I should to put my money in to to insure against default risk. Obviously from a risk pov the more the merrier. But surely at some point the additional lenders don't make a big difference. Is there a rule of thumb formula I can use? The simplest formula is "Am I comfortable with the risk?" There aren't THAT many platforms. So if you allocate them a comfort factor, then you start off investing into the ones that give you the best return-vs-comfort. The more you add, the further down that return-vs-comfort ratio you go. If you think you need yet more platforms, then you start to rummage around down the back of the sofa for the platforms that you really didn't much like the thought of. So, at some point, it's not that adding more doesn't make a difference - it's that they DO, but a negative one, because you're investing in platforms that you started off thinking were too uncomfortable for the return, just because you think you need more platforms...
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pom
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Post by pom on Aug 10, 2016 8:34:30 GMT
Trying to work out how many lenders I should to put my money in to to insure against default risk. Obviously from a risk pov the more the merrier. But surely at some point the additional lenders don't make a big difference. Is there a rule of thumb formula I can use? I was thinking 10 split across MT and SS but that still might mean I am moving one once a month so would do less if I can get away with it. I am trying to reduce the amount of unnecessary maintenance required. How many pies do you have? Thanks! The thread hasn't been updated in a while so I'm sure there's been a bit of change into which platforms are in favour (and a few new ones have launched) but you might want to look at p2pindependentforum.com/thread/3382/diversification-platforms-apple-pieEdit - personally I'm firmly in the as many loans across as many platforms as possible camp - takes some effort/time to get invested but relatively easy to then keep things ticking over with the help of a spreadsheet. A bit of a pain when you run out of boxes on the tax return calc sheets but not really a big deal. I do think a lot depends on how much you're wanting to invest overall tho and your risk attitude towards that - needs to divide into large enough minimum chunks in each platform to be worth the effort, and you need to be comfortable with the max overall amount in any single platform (just in case they fail). When you know what your comfortable min/max per platform is (and you may not yet) that'll likely work out your end target number. Actually on that basis I currently have too many platforms (as there are some below my ideal minimum, but they're also min effort so easy to leave ticking over), but there's very few I actually really REALLY want to get out of at the moment.
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Post by buttchopf23 on Aug 10, 2016 9:14:34 GMT
there is no insurance against Plattform Default, you can only reduce your risk through diversification amonst the plattforms, you should take into consideration plattforms in other countries as well
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kermie
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Post by kermie on Aug 10, 2016 9:52:38 GMT
Academic rambling: Increasing the number of platforms you use will in fact, increase the probability that you get "hit", but it should reduce the impact (loss) if you do. There is definitely a balance (for me, anyway). As you increase your diversification, your expected returns will tend to the average for the p2p marketplace.
Another random thought: "getting ahead" (i.e. above-average returns) requires you to do something different.
Here endeth the thought for the day.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Aug 10, 2016 10:10:32 GMT
Trying to work out how many lenders I should to put my money in to to insure against default risk. Bear in mind that "default" isn't the same thing as "bad debt" which in turn isn't the same thing as "loss". If you are relatively relaxed about accepting risk of a loan repaying late, but with good prospects for accruing interest (possibly even at a higher "default rate") in the meantime and returning both capital and interest at some point in the future, then you can afford to put rather larger sums into better quality secured bridging and development loans than you might under a pure diversification strategy. My total number of live loans has probably reduced by 30-40% over the last year or so but my total lent has risen by 20-30%. I still operate on a similar maximum stake for "bog standard" loans, albeit across 6 or 7 platforms rather than 9 or 10, but I'm happy to put larger sums into loans that appear to me to be of higher quality, even if they may need to be extended. Aside from sneaking an occasional E on Festive Chemicals (which I then always sell on after a couple of months), I no longer lend anything on an unsecured basis. ReBS taught me a valuable lesson in that regard!
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Aug 11, 2016 14:56:21 GMT
I'm happy with just investing in 2 or 3 platforms that are strong and I can research and monitor thoroughly, rather than say 10, where I have to invest in platforms that are loss making, have bad software, lack economies of scale etc. 100 loans should be enough diversity, personally i'm happy with 50 loans that are liked by me, rather than several hundred that would mean scrapping the barrel, just for diversity.
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beechside
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Post by beechside on Aug 11, 2016 15:13:42 GMT
Aside from sneaking an occasional E on Festive Chemicals... Crikey. I thought you were admitting to partaking of recreational drugs. Note to self: remember to read the whole post before coming to a judgement.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2016 15:23:37 GMT
If you were asking this of equity, then the figure is roughly 30 to 35 at which point you are basically fully diversed. FC recommends 100.
In reality, of course, how do you count independant borrowers, company A may well be related to company B operating from two different portals. What I do is divide total sum by 100. This then is my maximum loan value, often less. The down side of this is that I still have two borrowers who have manged to suck up 3% each of my money which could support ~33 borrowers, see first paragraph.
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kaya
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Post by kaya on Aug 11, 2016 15:24:34 GMT
3.14159265359 x 225
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Post by lynnanthony on Aug 11, 2016 15:30:03 GMT
Terminology. OP you said "how many lenders" should you put your money into, but I regard myself as the lender, so should we assume you mean how many platforms or how many borrowers? Personally, I don't think there are enough platforms (that I want to use, that do the sort of loans I'm interested in) to do much to mitigate risk; I have toe-dipped in several but in the main I use four, and nearly half my lending is through one platform though I am trying to balance it out. How much platform risk is there? Some, certainly, but all platforms have to have a run-down plan with a third party so a platform closing tomorrow does not represent a total loss of investment; it would certainly represent a loss of liquidity and I suspect there would be some financial losses. As to loan diversity, I work on between fifty and a hundred loans; any more is too difficult to keep track of. (I don't like black box lending and I don't want to end up working like that whilst choosing the loans I'm in.) Expanding on what kermie said, the more loans you are in the closer you get to tracking the average loan failure rate. Fine if that's what you want to do. I rightly or wrongly like to choose my loans; I've had a three year learning curve and like to think I can avoid some of the dogs I went into in my earlier innocence.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Aug 11, 2016 15:50:54 GMT
Aside from sneaking an occasional E on Festive Chemicals... Crikey. I thought you were admitting to partaking of recreational drugs. Note to self: remember to read the whole post before coming to a judgement. Es are good. Es are good. Naughty, naughty. Very naughty...
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Aug 11, 2016 17:13:31 GMT
If you were asking this of equity, then the figure is roughly 30 to 35 at which point you are basically fully diversed. FC recommends 100. In reality, of course, how do you count independant borrowers, company A may well be related to company B operating from two different portals. What I do is divide total sum by 100. This then is my maximum loan value, often less. The down side of this is that I still have two borrowers who have manged to suck up 3% each of my money which could support ~33 borrowers, see first paragraph. I got hit on a platform when I had 3% in 1 loan, that I thought had great security. The loan defaulted and the security has evaporated, hence a hefty loss. Lesson learned, diversify and don't get involved with companies/sectors/security, that I don't understand!
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Post by uncletone on Aug 12, 2016 9:26:58 GMT
"Number of loans" is an unquantifiable measurement: 100 loans of £1000 pounds each is diversity. 99 loans of a tenner and one loan of £99,010 is not.
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