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Post by oldnick on Apr 20, 2014 8:18:05 GMT
chris, this is a thread from the SS board but has turned into a discussion of AC's aftermarket. My experince with the AC AM is that -- with the exception of a lender wanting to sell loan parts in one of the loans that underwriters are trying to exit, and which have lots of loan parts offered for sale -- it's working for me. Whenever I've wanted to sell any loan parts, they've been bought by others within minutes of being listed for sale on the AM. And, like MONEY, I've managed to pick up some loan parts in the AM, tough nothing like the amount MONEY has bought. And that's not for want of trying. What's your secret MONEY? Anyone simply looking at the AM info on the AC website could be forgiven for thinking that nothing's happening except for a few underwriter parts that are being sold. The introduction of AutoInvest, however, has made that AM web page somewhat misleading. Any loan parts offered for sale are pretty much instantly processed and won't ever show up on the AM page because they disappear again so quickly. So parts are being sold and bought, but it's happening so quickly that it isn't clear that's what's going on unless you happen to be in the selling or buying side of one of the indicated 'specials'. Perhaps, when the immediate demands on the IT team have reduced, they could look at a page on AC's web site listing the existing loans and their associated trading volumes on the after market. This would be a confidence builder for those new to the process, reassuring them that the AM works, and, perhaps, also an aid to the more experienced investor looking to buy or sell - giving an indication of the likelihood of success. A lot of loan parts for sale, but low volumes of buying, will not necessarily indicate a toxic loan, it could be underwriters offloading to an already saturated market for that particular loan. It would however serve as a warning not to bank on early release of money tied up in that loan. Similar volumes of buying and selling equally do not indicate the toxicity or otherwise of a loan, but do show the level of liquidity, which might be important to some looking to 'bank' money in the short term. Of course this conversation should properly be about SS but the issues are common to all platforms with a secondary market.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Apr 20, 2014 9:10:10 GMT
W
| 1798 | 1605 | 1595 | 1492 | 1234 (zero)
| 2089 | 1882 | 1576
| 1484
| 1464 | | E | 2019 | 1779 | 1756 | 1703 | 1695 | 1400 | 1157
| 968
| 1470
| 1462
| | I | 3152
| 3116 | 3116 | 3113 | 3110 | 2927 | 2834
| 2739
| 3014
| 2657
| | H | 3072
| 3044 | 3006 | 2981 | 2961 | zero(2886)
| 2691 | 2484
| 2277
| 2304
| | Date | 10/4 | 11/4 | 12/4 | 13/4 | 14/4 | 15/4
| 16/4
| 17/4
| 18/4
| 19/4
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This is the AM from the 10th. The numbers are the total units for sale, to calculate sales subtract one days total from the last, Zero means that there was none of that stock for sale at some point in the day. Everyone knows what W E I H stand for, but in a months time I'll have forgotten so, Wrexham, Epping, Ipswich and Hackney. I can feel a moderator exploding somewhere, four said in one sentence. They're in units of £100 and it's clear a lot is bought and sold. W. seems to flow the fastest, H. moves at the speed of concrete. This put's even more pressure on the viability London Retail loan when you see that it has only 92units after about 2.5days
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Post by oldnick on Apr 20, 2014 16:12:59 GMT
Those figures are interesting but don't show the volume that was traded, just the difference in units remaining on sale from day to day.
I wouldn't worry about mentioning those place names on this forum, I'm pretty sure they're public knowledge already. As is Potters Bar - and Penge come to that.:-)
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oldgrumpy
Member of DD Central
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Post by oldgrumpy on Apr 20, 2014 16:24:31 GMT
Not to mention Pimlico (of passport fame), Putney (with its pies) or Peckham (of pony and pocket renown).  |
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duck
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,895
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Post by duck on Apr 20, 2014 16:36:39 GMT
are you taking the P's there oldgrumpy?
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ramblin rose
Member of DD Central
“Some people grumble that roses have thorns; I am grateful that thorns have roses.” — Alphonse Karr
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Post by ramblin rose on Apr 20, 2014 17:07:44 GMT
Mornington Crescent. I win  |
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Post by bracknellboy on Apr 20, 2014 18:19:41 GMT
only if you post it in the right thread.... :-)
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Post by pepperpot on Apr 20, 2014 19:40:15 GMT
Mornington Crescent. I win And I think you'll find that the player application pack clearly states that, and I quote, It was the only reason no one dared utter those words. Ahhh, hang on a minute, now I see what you've done, trying to prompt someone into piping you to the post [sic] in the correct thread to claim your free drink, nice! But I've seen through your dastardly plan.  P.S. A small apology to oldnick, this thread appears to be wandering. Not my fault, honest.
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Post by oldnick on Apr 20, 2014 20:22:44 GMT
Have we wandered? It all seemed a perfectly logical progression to me...
So, where were we supposed to be heading?
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Post by bracknellboy on Apr 20, 2014 21:57:52 GMT
Have we wandered? It all seemed a perfectly logical progression to me... So, where were we supposed to be heading? Mornington Crescent I believe.
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Post by oldnick on Apr 20, 2014 23:01:19 GMT
Have we wandered? It all seemed a perfectly logical progression to me... So, where were we supposed to be heading? Mornington Crescent I believe. Are we there now? I was expecting it to be more... well I'm not sure what I was expecting really - just... more.
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mikes1531
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Posts: 6,453
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Post by mikes1531 on Apr 21, 2014 1:13:37 GMT
W
| 1798 | 1605 | 1595 | 1492 | 1234 (zero)
| 2089 | 1882 | 1576
| 1484
| 1464 | | E | 2019 | 1779 | 1756 | 1703 | 1695 | 1400 | 1157
| 968
| 1470
| 1462
| | I | 3152
| 3116 | 3116 | 3113 | 3110 | 2927 | 2834
| 2739
| 3014
| 2657
| | H | 3072
| 3044 | 3006 | 2981 | 2961 | zero(2886)
| 2691 | 2484
| 2277
| 2304
| | Date | 10/4 | 11/4 | 12/4 | 13/4 | 14/4 | 15/4
| 16/4
| 17/4
| 18/4
| 19/4
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This is the AM from the 10th. The numbers are the total units for sale, to calculate sales subtract one days total from the last, Zero means that there was none of that stock for sale at some point in the day. Everyone knows what W E I H stand for, but in a months time I'll have forgotten so, Wr****m, Ep***g, Ip****h and Ha****y. I can feel a moderator exploding somewhere, four said in one sentence. They're in units of £100 and it's clear a lot is bought and sold. W. seems to flow the fastest, H. moves at the speed of concrete. At the risk of lowering the tone by trying to get back to the original subject... Thanks to Ton ⓉⓞⓃ for compiling this data. I expect that the rate of decline in the number of parts for sale is related to the number of parts of these loans already in circulation. H* suffers by comparison to E* and I* because, even though all three loans are of similar size, nearly all (93%) of H* is in lenders' hands while nearly half of both E* and I* still are held by the underwriters. There are over £2M of H* parts in circulation compared to about £1M of loan parts for each of the other two. In contrast to this, there are less than £600k of W* parts in lenders' hands at the moment. What this means is that a fair amount of the H* parts on the AM belong to lenders rather than U/Ws. Looking at the numbers right now, if I assume that all of the £158k of U/W parts are on the AM, then the total of £212k available on the AM means that £54k of the parts on the AM (25% of the total) are lenders' parts. I'll guess that all the U/Ws' parts of H* will have been sold by soon after the beginning of May, and at that point the H* AM will become a 'normal' AM.
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Post by oldnick on Apr 21, 2014 7:32:03 GMT
Thanks to ton and to you mikes1531 for your analysis.
These four loans are special cases in that they are still feeding into the aftermarket from underwriters' hands - with a large volume of loan parts on offer which are gradually being absorbed by, presumably, new investors as they join. This is happening sufficiently slowly that we can observe it.
The initial discussion on the SS thread was that trading volumes were now near invisible because the automatic buying of loan parts happens so quickly that they don't show on AC's aftermarket page. What I and hopefully others would find informative is for AC to reveal that near instantaneous activity - as a confidence builder, if nothing else, that there is liquidity in the market.
Then if a lender wishes to make a partial withdrawl they will know which loans are likely to sell, and buyers may be less frustrated by their lack of success if they at least know that particular loan parts are being traded, and, with patience, they will get their turn at buying them.
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mikes1531
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,453
Likes: 2,320
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Post by mikes1531 on Apr 21, 2014 10:55:42 GMT
What I and hopefully others would find informative is for AC to reveal that near instantaneous activity - as a confidence builder, if nothing else, that there is liquidity in the market. Then if a lender wishes to make a partial withdrawl they will know which loans are likely to sell, and buyers may be less frustrated by their lack of success if they at least know that particular loan parts are being traded, and, with patience, they will get their turn at buying them. I suspect that, with the exception of the four loans visible on the AM now, any time a modest quantity of loan parts is put up for sale the parts would be sold nearly instantly thanks to AutoInvest. That's because I suspect that there are enough lenders who have set AutoInvest to be on the lookout for parts to buy that every loan has a queue of lenders waiting to buy any parts that might become available. These suspicions are based on virtually no data except my occasional selling activities, and the fact that it's so rare to see any other loan parts on the AM list. So it would be very useful to have some real data from AC that the AM is alive and well, and doing its job. Of course, AI can't purchase any parts unless lenders have idle cash sitting in their accounts, and I don't know how much of that there is lying about. The situation that tests the depth of the unsatisfied demand is when shadow bidders are asked to settle their outstanding bids, because that most likely would prompt a flood of parts onto the AM. Unfortunately, the lack of much drawdown activity since AI was implemented means that there haven't been many calls for settlement of shadow bids recently. Hopefully that drought won't persist much longer.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Apr 21, 2014 14:35:32 GMT
mikes1531 as to how much money is sitting in peoples a/c's; the Birmingham Bridging Loan (I think that's the one; do correct me if I'm wrong) was in pre-bid most it's life and as best as I can remember it was for 75k(?) and was covered by 27k-29k in funded pre-bids. There were about 200 bids to fill it. I'm sure there's half an answer in there somewhere... ... but I'm not sure where it is, anyway I have £403 gently rotting in my account. And it stinks!
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My experince with the AC AM is that -- with the exception of a lender wanting to sell loan parts in one of the loans that underwriters are trying to exit, and which have lots of loan parts offered for sale -- it's working for me. Whenever I've wanted to sell any loan parts, they've been bought by others within minutes of being listed for sale on the AM.
