rxdav
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Post by rxdav on Oct 30, 2016 13:42:30 GMT
blender:
I have just checked the losses which I incurred in my early experience with FC - and it looks not too bad. However, that has more to do with me making a proactive decision to exit from unsecured SME lending quite early and go 100% in to pre-funded property loans than any other factors (with a 100% churn to avoid entrapment).
I haven't done a full analysis of my total P2P returns (over my five platforms) - but I'm estimating it's in the order of 10% - not too shabby. I fully accept all the risks inherent with P2P lending and do all I can to ameliorate them - and I am not a whinger - I have taken a number of hits but accept that as par for the course and get on with it.
What I am starting to get a little irked about is your underlying tone that unless you're a fully paid up member of the mrclondon supporters club, sporting a long service to P2P and loyal conduct medal on the appropriate lapel of ones anorak then your view will be tolerated at best, and derided if it doesn't conform to that of the club's elites!?!?
s125:
You are quite correct - but there is a converse viewpoint. If FC are making losses and burning cash (which they are - you don't dispute that), then their current 1% fee business model can only be sustained via continuing expansion (they are actively advertising for new lenders - offering incentives etc. - and I won't get into the ramifications of any potential listing here). However, if a critical mass of lenders decide it's too risky and exit then FC are in big trouble. Now what might make a critical mass of lenders exit - most likely diminishing returns and an increasingly adverse risk/reward profile? So if FC don't spend more on keeping existing lenders content - then that may also prove terminal? Lenders need to feel and believe that the recoveries team are doing all that is possible to recover loses - and the impression I get is that many simply don't (and their abysmal communication with lenders does not help one iota).
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rxdav
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Post by rxdav on Oct 30, 2016 13:52:03 GMT
Steve T,
I have no current arguments with FC's recoveries team - as I posted only five minutes ago my personal losses are small and I took early evasive action to ensure they remained that way. However, unless they are all phantom posts on FC's web site there are a lot of unhappy bunnies out there.
Clearly, I will have to crawl back under my stone and wait another few years before I can come out and play with the big boys who have the length of experience to know everything I clearly don't.
Funny, but I do seem to be doing quite well financially with my investments thank you - but I guess that must just be all good luck - what could I possibly know eh?!?!
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Oct 30, 2016 14:08:47 GMT
Steve T,
I have no current arguments with FC's recoveries team - as I posted only five minutes ago my personal losses are small and I took early evasive action to ensure they remained that way. That's quite a turnaround from your "as much use as a chocolate teapot" position of yesterday, but perhaps that was simply Sauvignon-induced. 😉
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rxdav
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Post by rxdav on Oct 30, 2016 14:29:41 GMT
SteveT
It is still my personal opinion that the chocolate teapot analogy is appropriate.
I don't have to be in current dispute with the recoveries team to hold such an opinion - I just keep a broad perspective, abreast of developments and my finger on the pulse (as far as that's possible).
I also try to avoid the somewhat myopic perspective that I'm discovering to be all too prevalent on this forum.
P.S. You know what they say - when in a hole, stop digging!
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blender
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Post by blender on Oct 30, 2016 14:36:40 GMT
blender: ...
What I am starting to get a little irked about is your underlying tone that unless you're a fully paid up member of the mrclondon supporters club, sporting a long service to P2P and loyal conduct medal on the appropriate lapel of ones anorak then your view will be tolerated at best, and derided if it doesn't conform to that of the club's elites!?!? ...
s125:
Lenders need to feel and believe that the recoveries team are doing all that is possible to recover loses - and the impression I get is that many simply don't (and their abysmal communication with lenders does not help one iota). Not at all. The readers of the forum will make up their own minds how to value your contribution. But reputation on the board does count for something. What I object to is accusing another contributor of not being what he/she claims to be, as in : "Well all I can say is that you must be very, if not VERY easily impressed (or maybe a covert lobbyist and/or employee)!?" That's all. You do not have to agree with what anyone says.
The abysmal communications? If you mean the communications on late property loans - a valid comment I agree - then that is not the recoveries team, it is the property team. The recoveries team are not yet in control of any property loan, since none has been defaulted.
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rxdav
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Post by rxdav on Oct 30, 2016 15:12:45 GMT
Blender,
OK - let's look at the minutiae of your last post:
1. It was mrclondon who used capitals in emphasis - as in 'I have been VERY impressed with FC's recovery efforts ....'. My response using italics simply mimicked his emphasis and was actually meant to be lightly amusing as well as make my point. Hence this will likely have been lost on you as it requires the reader to have a sense of humour.
2. I was also allegedly 'accusing another contributor of not being what he/she claims to be..'. However, what I actually said was 'maybe' (a covert lobbyist...) - this is a question - defined as such by the fact there is a question mark at the end of that line. Hence, it could not be said to be accusatory because I have merely asked a question, not made a statement. There was also an exclamation mark with that question mark - in emphasis of the light hearted nature and suggesting banter - again that was seemingly lost on you.
You have made a sterling defence of mrclondon - I'm sure he will be most impressed with your tenacity - you may even get another stripe.
I am now going out - something I think you might want to consider doing more often?
P.S. Until yesterday I had no idea who mrclondon was - thank you for providing illumination.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Oct 30, 2016 15:22:19 GMT
You know what they say - when in a hole, stop digging! You didn't stick to that for long! BTW, dubious attempts at "humour" on a forum, especially those that might otherwise be read as baseless attacks on others' motives or judgement, are best accompanied by an emoji to avoid misinterpretation.
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rxdav
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Post by rxdav on Oct 30, 2016 15:53:41 GMT
SteveT
I was referring to the hole that you are in.
With regard to humour on the forum - learned that lesson big time. I have noted what you say - that it is advised to use an emoji to indicate to the reader 'stop, humour here' - silly old me expecting that sound written English alone would suffice without providing some images to help The Sun readers eh!?
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 30, 2016 16:21:44 GMT
If you expect people to deduce humour from statements like ""Well all I can say is that you must be very, if not VERY easily impressed (or maybe a covert lobbyist and/or employee)!?" you must be rather new to email and forum communications, because tone just doesn't come across that way. 'Sound written English' is great for providing information, but poor at conveying a wink and a nudge. I'm not sure where Sun readers come in though .. mrclondon listed his reading habits on one of the chat threads recently IIRC, and the lowest it descended to was the Times, which is bad enough. 8>. (that's a smiley, lest Times readers &/or journalists should be offended). Read the Fc forum, and you will find few, if any (OK, sl125 is maybe an exception) who rate them very highly overall, but I personally prefer to chuck bricks at the areas where the facts and statistics demonstrate they are doing poorly. I don't rate their IT systems, their risk assessment and risk band rating (and subsequent rate setting), their somewhat over-spun under-factual communication with retail lenders, and their drift towards institutional money. Their forum is poor too. Bad-debt-recovery-wise, the jury is still out (come back circa 2020), but so far they are ahead of much of the P2P competition (based on my experience), and probably on par with the high street banks (I'm guessing, banks don't like to publish their loan book). Getting money back out of a defaulted company / its directors is, IMO, MUCH harder than getting blood out of a stone.
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Post by bracknellboy on Oct 30, 2016 16:35:26 GMT
MOD HAT ON: All: Lets ensure that forum rules are adhered to and that we remain nice to one another, which on the whole most participants on this thread have endeavoured to maintain. rxdav : I don't know whether you are in a hole or not, but you are frankly skating on thin ice. No-ones view on here is sacrosanct, and no particular weight should be given - other than on matters of board admin - just because someone is a member of the board staff. Forumites choose to give whatever weight they like to the opinions and knowledge of others based on history and critical assessment of what is contributed. Looking through this thread it is clear that you have made multiple posts which are accusatory, seriously questioning of other members motivations, questioning their 'independence', when they have supported other peoples opinions, and frankly used inflammatory language. You may have been irked by others responses, but in general they look reasonable, and if you throw mud around in the way did you should expect a level of robust response. If you wish to continue discussion on this topic then ensure you address this going forward. But in the absence of you contributing numbers in terms of actual recovery rates, and / or comparison with industry performance of similar situations, it would seem to me that there is little more to be said, and that the conclusion can be largely summarised as: - You think that FCs recovery team are as useful as a chocolate frying pan - Others who have posted who have direct numbers either don't have a judgement or believe they are doing somewhere between reasonable and decent job
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rxdav
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Post by rxdav on Oct 30, 2016 17:50:42 GMT
So - shall we call it a draw then' ??
Disclaimer: For anyone who may find the concept of humour challenging I should to be crystal clear - yes, the above is an attempt at levity.
I shall consider myself duly chastised.
The end.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Oct 30, 2016 18:32:53 GMT
Mrclondon,
Just read this and nearly choked on my drink (a very nice Sauvignon as it happens). So you are not just very impressed, but VERY impressed at the outcomes of FC's recovery team's efforts?
Well all I can say is that you must be very, if not VERY easily impressed (or maybe a covert lobbyist and/or employee)!?
In my three year experience with FC they have consistently proved to be about as much use a chocolate frying pan with respect to recoveries - and that denigrates chocolate frying pans as at least in extremis you can eat them.
Unbelievable!!
Please don't choke on the drink rxdav. Recovery is a long and slow process if you expect quick results then you are investing in the wrong sector. The results of the FC team are about what I would have expected. I have been with FC from the early days and have 110 defaults of which 8 have been a total or close to total w/off, 7 have seen full recovery and of the remainder I am currently at 26% recovery. To be honest in my business experience this is about right and I expect recoveries to probably end up at around 50% - pretty good by normal commercial standards.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2016 10:14:01 GMT
Please don't choke on the drink rxdav. Recovery is a long and slow process if you expect quick results then you are investing in the wrong sector. The results of the FC team are about what I would have expected. I have been with FC from the early days and have 110 defaults of which 8 have been a total or close to total w/off, 7 have seen full recovery and of the remainder I am currently at 26% recovery. To be honest in my business experience this is about right and I expect recoveries to probably end up at around 50% - pretty good by normal commercial standards. Yikes dorset, though I guess we would need to know 110 as a percentage of what. 110 out of 110 would worry me, my FC default numbers are sub 3.5% which would be about what I would expect though I stopped investing in FC when the process changed last year (as others have said, poor correlation between risk and reward, too large an institution presence etc etc) and I am a real scardy-cat when it comes to investing, what sort of intial default rates are you seeing?
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blender
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Post by blender on Oct 31, 2016 11:01:33 GMT
Please don't choke on the drink rxdav. Recovery is a long and slow process if you expect quick results then you are investing in the wrong sector. The results of the FC team are about what I would have expected. I have been with FC from the early days and have 110 defaults of which 8 have been a total or close to total w/off, 7 have seen full recovery and of the remainder I am currently at 26% recovery. To be honest in my business experience this is about right and I expect recoveries to probably end up at around 50% - pretty good by normal commercial standards. Yikes dorset, though I guess we would need to know 110 as a percentage of what. 110 out of 110 would worry me, my FC default numbers are sub 3.5% which would be about what I would expect though I stopped investing in FC when the process changed last year (as others have said, poor correlation between risk and reward, too large an institution presence etc etc) and I am a real scardy-cat when it comes to investing, what sort of intial default rates are you seeing? If just discussing recovery rate it does not matter how many loans in total, just that the number of defaults is large and the time held long enough to see recoveries. 110 defaults over 5 years (though presumably increasing over time) is about the best data we will get. In comparison my 8 defaults over 4 years not statistically useful. 26% looks ok to me - beating FC's overall 21% probably because of fewer recent investments. I think 50% ending up may be possible for a historical portfolio, though optimistic, but I believe that in future FC will fine tune their processes on assessment and recoveries to meet the loss rates with a bit of slack, and that they will not spend more than they need to on the recoveries budget. They will have to plan to make a profit.
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Post by jackpease on Oct 31, 2016 11:29:05 GMT
>>110 defaults Is this number readily obtainable? I can see downgraded (76 in my case) but not defaults? Jack P
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